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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2019 7:30:19 GMT -5
I'm accumulating a dividend play that I'm extremely high on right now that I'll highlight one of these days down in the "other stocks" sub-board. I'm buying on dips right now and really don't want to discuss it until I'm better positioned in it. I get it. Even though the board is a fun group, everyone likes to be able to say they were the one who got in first, and cheapest. IMO, there aren't a ton of cheap, undiscovered dividend plays left, not with the sector rotation we've seen last month or so from growth to yield. Bill Gross was on CNBC talking about that subject last week, and wouldn't you know it, 2 of the 3 stocks he's pumping are long term holdings of mine. I'm building a new dividend position as well. A beaten down name in the 'content' space. CBS or Viacom? I've been though that area, made some money years ago, but once Netflix got on its roll and destroyed everything in its path, I've just watch in awe at how cheap they've gotten. 10 years ago I was soooo sure that Time Warner or Disney or CBS would identify the Netflix threat and launch their own service.....Netflix had a couple of original series, HBO was loaded....I just assumed they'd wise up and launch their own service....pull the content from NFLX and watch them dry up and die on the vine....but....they waited 10 years and allowed Netflix to reach critical mass, now they're scrambling to catch up. TWX and CBS were my ponies back then. Sold them both in 2016 for more firepower to fight the crackdown effects on WYNN and LVS, turned out to be a decent move. How can Lions Gate remain independent? They have a great library! In this day and age, "Seinfeld" and "South Park" are getting 1/2 billon from streaming services.....Lions Gate's market cap is under 2 billion....and they also own the premium channel Starz. Can't believe they haven't been scooped up in this content land grab. Maybe it's a "haven't been scooped up...yet".
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Post by Blitz on Oct 26, 2019 8:17:03 GMT -5
I met Harold Ludwig, one of the Directors for Lionsgate, at a Yale vs Dartmouth football game two years ago. We talked about that in very general terms. It's complicated is all I can say.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2019 8:36:17 GMT -5
I met Harold Ludwig, one of the Directors for Lionsgate, at a Yale vs Dartmouth football game two years ago. We talked about that in very general terms. It's complicated is all I can say. hmmmm.....inquiring minds! Anybody remember Icahn's run at LGF back in 2010? If it was too complicated for him to work out, maybe it is "unworkable". Stock isn't far off from where it was then.....wonder if Carl would consider a "round 2"? 10 years later, he could point to the lack of performance and push for a sale. www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2010-dec-14-la-fi-ct-icahn-20101214-story.htmlCarl Icahn ends bid to take over Lions Gate By BEN FRITZ, LOS ANGELES TIMES DEC. 14, 2010 12 AM The long and costly war between Hollywood’s top independent studio and its largest shareholder appears to be over — at least for the moment. In a surprising admission of defeat, corporate raider Carl Icahn said Monday that he was abandoning his effort to take over the Santa Monica studio best known for the Tyler Perry and “Saw” movies and the cable television show “Mad Men.” Icahn said he had no chance of prevailing in a proxy battle to elect five nominees to the board of Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. at the company’s annual meeting Tuesday. The statement from Icahn, Lions Gate’s largest shareholder, came after a New York court denied his request for a ruling that would have increased his stake in the company and made it easier for him to win Tuesday’s vote. The decision also voided a tender offer Icahn had on the table to acquire the studio’s outstanding stock at $7.50 a share in a bid to take control. “We recognize that it is now virtually impossible for us to prevail in the proxy contest due to the dilutive transaction in question,” he said, referring to a controversial debt-for-equity transaction enacted during the summer that increased the stake of Mark Rachesky, the company’s second-largest shareholder, to 29% from just under 20%. The move diluted Icahn’s holdings to 32.8% from 38%. Rachesky is a supporter of the current management and has opposed an effort by Icahn to elect five dissident members to the company’s 12-person board to push his agenda of cutting costs and pulling back on film production to increase profit and shareholder value. Though Icahn admitted he could not garner a majority of shares to vote his way, Lions Gate executives were still lobbying investment funds Monday in an effort to win by the largest possible margin at the upcoming meeting. If a significant number of shareholders vote alongside Icahn for his five nominees, it would still be a blow to Lions Gate Chief Executive Jon Feltheimer and Vice Chairman Michael Burns. In his statement Monday, Icahn encouraged shareholders to vote for his director nominees to “voice their dissatisfaction.” On Thursday, Institutional Shareholder Services — Wall Street’s most influential advisory firm on proxy votes — endorsed three of Icahn’s five nominees. Icahn has been waging a battle for two years to take over Lions Gate and oust Feltheimer and Burns. The studio has spent more than $17 million on legal fees as the two sides have each filed lawsuits and made numerous unsuccessful attempts to reach a settlement ending their dispute in exchange for giving Icahn representation on the board. Icahn indicated that the setback Tuesday didn’t mean he was ending his crusade to shake up operations at Lions Gate. “We will continue to monitor the situation at Lions Gate and will aggressively take all actions necessary to protect our investment,” he said in his statement. Monday’s news led Lions Gate shares to close down 5% at $7.09, as some on Wall Street had been expecting Icahn to announce a new takeover strategy after last week’s court ruling. A lower price for Lions Gate stock boosts Icahn’s argument that the company has been underperforming. As long as Icahn remains the company’s largest shareholder, Feltheimer and Burns will continue to be under pressure to reduce costs, turn around the studio’s ongoing net losses and raise the stock price. One person close to the studio said it would continue to seek a way to settle with Icahn or allow the investor to sell his shares favorably. As for Icahn, he is likely to continue pushing for a merger between Lions Gate and struggling Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, in which he is also a large shareholder. Previous attempts by Icahn to bring the two studios together were unsuccessful.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2019 18:52:15 GMT -5
No economic interest for me....just speculating. I'm going to say Apple TV is the catalyst for Apple to buy Lions Gate before year end. This article was from earlier this year, but I heard the same guy making the same argument a few days ago:
Apple needs to buy a production house like A24, Lionsgate, or Sony Pictures: Analyst Published Mon, Jan 14 20191:28 PM EST Tyler Clifford @_TylerTheTyler_
Apple’s “biggest mistake” would be to not get aggressive about video streaming, noted analyst Dan Ives says. “The clock has struck midnight for Apple in terms of content,” the Wedbush Securities managing director of equity research says. Apple should consider buying a production house like A24, Sony Pictures, or Lionsgate, he says.
Apple must get serious and acquire a movie production company or the tech giant will not succeed as a services business, noted analyst Dan Ives told CNBC on Wednesday.
Apple should look into buying independent A24, or a bigger entertainment company such as Sony Pictures or Lionsgate, suggested the managing director of equity research at Wedbush Securities. “If they’re not aggressive in M&A from a content perspective ... this will be, in our opinion, the biggest mistake that [CEO Tim Cook] and Apple has made, because that’s the way that the services flywheel is going to work in terms of the install base.”
With plans to jump into the crowded pool of online video, Apple is rumored to be launching its own streaming services as soon as March. The venture would allow the iPhone maker to enter an key market as it focuses more on providing subscription services and compete with established video providers like Netflix, Amazon Video, and Hulu.
Last year, Apple announced a multiyear deal with A24, a New York-based production company, that plans to make movies and TV shows for Apple device owners. Apple obtained worldwide rights to “The Elephant Queen,” a documentary directed by Emmy-Award winning filmmakers Victoria Stone and Mark Deeble, in September. It also cut a deal, according to Variety, with director-producer Justin Lin for TV content.
“The clock has struck midnight for Apple in terms of content,” Ives said on “Squawk Alley.”
Apple did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Shares of Apple were lower at midday on Monday. The stock has been working to recover ever since losing about 10 percent after cutting its fiscal first quarter guidance earlier this month.
Apple’s last major acquisition was a $400 million purchase of song-identification app Shazam in December 2017, which followed the $3 billion acquisition of Beat Electronics in 2014.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2019 18:57:31 GMT -5
More recently: www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/apple-buying-hollywood-studio-tv-plus-launch-15092175Apple Could Afford to Buy a Hollywood Studio -- But Should It? Apple has the money to buy a Hollywood studio, like Sony or Lionsgate, to build out its TV+ ambitions. But its content strategy is different from competitors such as Netflix or Disney. Annie Gaus Sep 17, 2019 8:00 AM EDT Here's the Real Reason Bob Iger Had to Depart from the Apple Board Disney and Apple are competitors now, but they're also long-time partners. Now that Apple (AAPL - Get Report) is diving into the content business with TV+, should it go full Hollywood and buy up a studio? With plenty of cash on hand and big ambitions in its growing services business, Apple perhaps could do just that -- but whether it will is a totally different question. Apple shares are up 2.4% since Sept. 10, when the tech giant revealed its latest slate of iPhones along with more details TV+, Apple's much-anticipated streaming service. Apple announced that the service will cost just $4.99 per month, much less than expected, when it launches on Nov. 1. It's also offering one year free to customers who purchase any iPhone, iPad, Mac or Apple TV. To some investors, Apple buying up a Hollywood studio seems like a logical move. With $102 billion in the bank as of last quarter, Apple has the money. And when you stack up Apple TV+ against other streaming players, its content slate looks thin by comparison. There are more than 5,700 titles on Netflix (NFLX - Get Report) , according to the tracker Flixable, compared to a few dozen on Apple TV+ within the first year of launch. Disney (DIS - Get Report) has its own much-vaunted IP catalog -- which includes Marvel, Pixar, National Geographic, the Disney film library and others -- with hundreds of titles available on its Nov. 12 launch. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has suggested that Apple should buy up a major studio to round out its streaming ambitions, writing in a recent note that content is the "missing piece of the puzzle" for Apple. ADVERTISING "Our top M&A studio candidates that make the most sense/strategic fit for Apple would be in order: A24 Studio, Lionsgate, Sony Pictures, MGM Studios with long shots being CBS/Viacom and Netflix," he wrote on Sept. 15, also reaffirming a $245 price target for the stock. A purchase of Sony Pictures (SNE - Get Report) or Lionsgate (LGF.A - Get Report) , for instance, would give Apple a decent chunk of the overall studio market: According to the media intelligence firm Filmtake, Sony Pictures controls 10% of studio market share by total gross, and Lionsgate has 8%. (Disney is the largest player, at 35%.) However, Apple's cash hoard and relative lack of wholly-owned content doesn't necessarily add up to a studio purchase, according to Dan Rayburn, principal analyst with Frost & Sullivan. The reason? Apple's streaming plans -- and how they fit into its overall business -- are very different than those of Disney, Netflix, or other media giants such as AT&T's (T - Get Report) WarnerMedia. For one, its pricing and rollout plan are distinctive compared to other players: At $4.99 per month, Apple's streaming service is substantially less costly than other streaming players, and none offer a one-year trial. "Do we see Apple somehow lacking in the content department? I would argue no -- they're not trying to be Hulu," Rayburn said. "I think we have to see how much content they add over what period of time...If they have a great show or series, people tend to binge watch that stuff and stay on." Rayburn noted that at just $4.99 per month, many users will continue with the service even if there's just one or two shows that they like. And by fall 2020 -- when some free trials will be due to expire -- we'll know more about what content is best or most popular and what areas, if any, could use further investment on Apple's part. Additionally, Apple could also opt to bundle TV+ with some of its other services, such as Apple Music, between now and then -- potentially making the service even cheaper and stickier with Apple's installed base. "This is a whole different strategy," Rayburn added. "I think people are underestimating Apple." Beyond just Apple, the streaming industry on a whole is likely to change dramatically over the next year or so -- in addition to Disney and Apple, AT&T's WarnerMedia is due to launch HBO Max, its streaming product, in the spring of 2020. And many expect that further consolidation in the media business is inevitable. "There's no question that the smaller studios, Paramount or Sony Pictures are ripe for acquisition or mergers," added Jeffrey Cole, CEO at the Center for the Digital Future at USC's Annenberg School. "The game of musical chairs has begun. Six studios are down to five. Expect to see that number shrink even more." Even compared to the largest media companies out there, such as AT&T and Disney, Apple stands out in several ways. Unlike traditional media businesses, winning the streaming wars isn't a make-or-break move for the trillion-dollar iPhone giant. It's also many times larger and more profitable and can afford a certain degree of experimentation. That's one reason why Cole argues that someday, Apple may look to acquire a bigger target than Sony Pictures or Lionsgate, and seek to acquire Disney itself. "Disney or Netflix or Comcast or AT&T may not be big enough in this new era of competing with trillion or close to trillion dollar companies," Cole said. "Apple is serious about its moving to entertainment but I think at some point they just say, it's easier to buy Disney."
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Lionsgate
Oct 28, 2019 19:14:44 GMT -5
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Post by Blitz on Oct 28, 2019 19:14:44 GMT -5
As I read this I was thinking Apple should just buy Disney. Then at the end it says the same. Why screw around with the smaller players if you want content to stream. Apple would probably be a good steward of all of Disney too.
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Post by CardsFan on Oct 30, 2019 7:36:19 GMT -5
FYI, Lionsgate made a huge mistake a few years back not selling out to Hasbro. At this point, it needs to be split up and sold and is trading far below fair value. Forget that they own popular movie rights such as Hunger Games, which has a prequel coming out soon. The real value is the John Wick Franchise. You should research the growth rates from Part 1 to 2 to 3, and note they plan to continue milking that cash cow the way they did with the SAW franchise.
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Post by CardsFan on Nov 7, 2019 19:33:33 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2019 21:26:49 GMT -5
Didn't see the report, but positive action after hours. I've moved on however....figure the only catalyst would be to sit around hoping for a buyout. Looks like a chip shot, but too much going on elsewhere.
Speaking of AT&T (in the other thread), how long before they buy a Content Delivery Network. The CDN's are going to be very important. Check out stuff like Fastly and/or Cloudflare. Edge companies that could find themselves in the right place at the right time...1-2-3 year time frame to allow 5G/IoT to rollout and ramp up in importance.
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Post by CardsFan on Nov 7, 2019 21:44:15 GMT -5
Didn't see the report, but positive action after hours. I've moved on however....figure the only catalyst would be to sit around hoping for a buyout. Looks like a chip shot, but too much going on elsewhere. Speaking of AT&T (in the other thread), how long before they buy a Content Delivery Network. The CDN's are going to be very important. Check out stuff like Fastly and/or Cloudflare. Edge companies that could find themselves in the right place at the right time...1-2-3 year time frame to allow 5G/IoT to rollout and ramp up in importance. AT&T agreed not to do any more major acquisitions as part of its agreement with Elliot's management. AT&T is going to continue to monetize assets and pay down debt over the next year or so, in addition to buying back shares, which they haven't done in ages. AT&T's real growth drivers, if you're looking for something most people never think about, is advertising and its First-Net project. I forget the name of the digital tech group they bought not long ago, but like Roku, they see that as the next wave. (similar to google making so much money off search back in the day) With AT&T both controlling the pipe and airwaves, via wireless and direct TV, and essentially owning the most prime domestic content (everything from HBO to CNN), it's in the pole position to be able to command premium pricing on ads delivered to customers. For the record, I'm not looking to hold AT&T long term. Like Elliot management, I just know it's been undervalued for ages, and is due for a reversion to mean. I'll gradually start selling in the high 40's, pick up selling in the 50s and exit the position at 60-65, around the same value Singer mentioned when he first bought a huge stake. It takes a lot for me to want to hold a stock I absolutely detest, especially given it's CEO's horrendous leadership. But none of that changes the fact it's in a really good spot with 5G, and could be one of the safest 'low-yet-reasonable' growth stories around should domestic politics take a turn for the worst. Re: Lionsgate: (from today's report)Motion Picture segment revenue increased by 7.1% to $405.8 million and segment profit increased nearly 300% to $51.0 million from the prior year quarter reflecting the strong theatrical performances from Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, Angel Has Fallen, and Rambo: Last Blood, as well as the continued outsized ancillary performance of John Wick: Chapter 3 -- Parabellum. Was just predicting something like that not long ago The John Wick franchise is literally printing money these days. Part 4 is already in the works, and another Hunger Games is slated. Rumor has it there will be a Sicario 3, which i was a huge fan of, and four 4Q this year, two big releases are planned. First is a remake of Midway. The second, is a comedy that looks suprisingly good.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2019 21:50:48 GMT -5
Hope it works for you. Not my cup of tea. Debt load is a monstrosity and the low margin, cut throat competition in the wireless and streaming sectors will be very challenging for them in my eyes. I think spin off's and restructurings will be called for at some point while EPS and/or revenue growth will be in the single digits at best.
But, just one man's take.
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Post by CardsFan on Nov 7, 2019 21:58:54 GMT -5
Hope it works for you. Not my cup of tea. Debt load is a monstrosity and the low margin, cut throat competition in the wireless and streaming sectors will be very challenging for them in my eyes. I think spin off's and restructurings will be called for at some point while EPS and/or revenue growth will be in the single digits at best. But, just one man's take. There's a rumor they could 'spin off' direct TV since it's bleeding customers. Some sort of JV with Dish Network. With AT&T now focused on streaming product, it makes too much sense. They'd have to write down the asset, but it will free up a tremendous amount of cash for debt paydown. Did you check out the 'Knives out' preview above? I don't know why, but it reminds me of 'The Ref' starring Dennis Leary.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2019 22:21:44 GMT -5
LOL..."The Ref", hilarious movie. WTF is wrong with you people?
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Post by CardsFan on Nov 8, 2019 14:16:12 GMT -5
Just read their conference call transcript. I was very pleased with some of the new things they are doing. And downright shocked by forward thinking of new development model where they split some production costs with HBO on certain new series. Even more shocked the stock kept chugging higher given the word capital raise was brought up. (Not that's its immenent)
Not sure if I should take my 2 week profit and run or let it ride. Turns out, their already planning john wick 5. Lol.... milk that cash cow baby
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Post by CardsFan on Nov 8, 2019 16:33:08 GMT -5
I'm going tease some of the highlights: (from today's earnings call)
Turning to the Motion Picture Group. We embarked on a reorganization 18 months ago to create organizational efficiency, unlock creativity and collaboration and position the group for future growth around a reinvision of content strategy. We’re now realizing the promise of that work and are confidently positioned for continued growth. Theatrical box office results are expected to exceed $700 million by the end of the calendar year, up over 85% from last year. Our level of performance so far this year puts us in fifth place ahead of two major studios with a box office market share of 6%. Sitting squarely in the center of our content strategy John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum continues to deliver for us.
This quarter, we saw the home entertainment release achieved sales beyond our expectations and further boost the value of the first two films in the franchise. We’re continuing to work on this incredible intellectual property as we dive into development on John Wick: Chapters 4 and 5 and the expansion of the John Wick Universe, who had strength to our content story. We had an impressive string of successful wide releases in the quarter. Angel Has Fallen, Rambo: Last Blood and Scary Stories all over performed at the summer box office. These are the kinds of movies that sit at the foundation of our strategy and provide a level of consistency that enables further growth and expansion of our pipeline.
We’re currently filming the first season of the romantic comedy Love Life starring Anna Kendrick, an original for HBO max that was prominently featured at their recent Investor Day. The split rights model that we’re using enables us to create a star-driven brand-defining property to support the HBO max platform while incurring minimal deficit and risk and retaining international rights.
Now, for a quick update on the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with leverage at 5.5 times including STARZPLAY International or 4.6 times excluding STARZPLAY International, representing improvement over the last quarter of 0.3 times and 0.4 times respectively. The sequential decline in leverage was the result of improved trailing 12 months adjusted OIBDA. While it is difficult to project year-end leverage based on our earlier comments, we want to make it clear that deleveraging remains a high priority as we allocate capital going forward. As noted in the past, our preference is to raise capital at the right price point to both highlight the valuation of stores and to delever more quickly than we otherwise would organically.
Now, looking at sequential growth from the fiscal first quarter, excluding STARZPLAY International, Starz domestic segment profit was up 35%. Global subscribers were up 500,000 driven largely by OTT and the strong early results of our international rollout. Domestic subscribers were up 300,000 and domestic OTT subs were up an impressive 1.2 million sequentially, representing our strongest quarter ever on both wholesale and retail OTT driven by strong slate of hit programming. International subs increased 8% sequentially and should ramp up even more meaningfully as our global partners continue to deploy their platforms and marketing efforts.
On the Q&A, the biggest issue revolved around implications of poor negotiations with Comcast. They were asked if that disruption would mess with any debt covenants. LGF confirmed that deal has zero impact either way.
Today's volume was 4x normal. Keep in mind, the stock was at 30 per share not that long ago. You guys all have valid points for staying away. Just seems to me the stock is good for a 3-4 points minimum. And a hell of a lot more if they'd spin off Starz and unlock some value. I have zero intention of holding for 30, or even 20. This was a spec bet for me at 7.5 and a small position at that. My thought was, you're essentially paying for the Motion picture group and getting Starz for free. CBS or someone else is going to buy Starz. The only reason they aren't spinning it off is management believes LGF's extensive film library is what drives Starz adoption. They recently did a one week trial on ROKU with Hunger games. That led to 18,000 free trials of Starz in one week. So they are definitely looking at some in new ways to increase adoption, despite the Comcast mess.
If Midway and Knives Out are Q4 successes, I think we could see hedge funds re-enter Q1 2019 and drive for a buyout. Right now, Knives out has a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating. It's got 'The Ref' written all over it, in terms of interesting holiday movies.
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Post by CardsFan on Nov 12, 2019 1:44:33 GMT -5
Lionsgate broke 9 today. Any chance we have a 'chartist' on the board who can give me an idea of where they think it goes? I'm a fundamentalist, but LGF was always meant to be a trade for me. Midway seem to be getting solid audience reviews, so depending on how 'Knives Out' performs over Thanksgiving, I'm trying to decide if I should hold until 1Q.
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Post by CardsFan on Nov 13, 2019 2:54:02 GMT -5
Quick update on Midway. Looks like it's going to earn half its production budget the first weekend of it's release. LGF only 'purchased' US/UK distribution rights, so it's on the hook for about 50 of the 100 million budget. (not counting marketing spend) It appears to have made around 25 million last weekend. This was the one movie on it's slate I was a little worried about, so it's nice to see the ROI so high in week 1. I'm going to assume there may not be as much of a week 3 slowdown given Thanksgiving is coming up, so i think today's numbers is what pushed the stock and volume up for a 3rd day in a row.
I'm thinking we tread water until 'Knives Out' is released over Thanksgiving. Posted preview above, but at $40 million production budget, if it continues gaining traction, it could be the number one flick until Star Wars comes out this Christmas, especially given it's 98% Rotten Tomatoes and 84% Metacritic rating.
Can't figure out if I should unload at 10, or stick around until 12-13. (I own B-shares) Here's my thought process. This is one of the few stocks I don't see affected by good/bad China trade deal news. Let's assume is continues a slow rise until thanksgiving release (22nd). Something to the extent of 3 cents per day. That's about a 35 cent rise from here, which gets it to $9.43. (Keep in mind, this is a trade for me and I'm not basing any of this on fundamentals, just recent observations)
What kind of bump do we get if Knives out matches its growing expectations its first weekend release? Let's be conservative and say 25 cents. That gets us to 9.68. Let's assume it continues doing well until Xmas. So another 2 cents per day avg. That pushes it to $10.28. The question then is, do we get the typical Santa Rally for the entire market, and does it last the 1st week of January. Forget any more good news about the movie, let's just apply a market premium of say 3%. All of my numbers would seem pretty conservative. That pushes LGF-B to around $10.6 per share, or 17.5% from today's close.
What do you guys think about the assumptions I used? I put in a limit sell order today at $11. I wished I'd bought more shares because I'd sell half then and hold other half for a potential buyout. As it stands, this could turn out to be just a good short term trade. I've had decent luck trading this industry in the past. I never really 'invest' in it because of risks, but this will be second time I've traded LGF for a 30-40% bump. Sort of hoping I can sell it soon, and if we get some sort of swoon because of March politics, maybe buy it back down the road, if it doesn't get taken out before then.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2019 7:02:35 GMT -5
Can't figure out if I should unload at 10, or stick around until 12-13. A) Dump it for 10 B) Unless you can get 12-13 Those are the kinds of decisions you make with your keyboard. (as you sat there looking at the "submit order" button") Nice trade off the bottom! I always know going in, trade or investment. If its a trade, I have preset number and if I get it, no questions asked, adios. If it's an investment, I'm mostly in accumulation mode, up or down as whatever catalyst I'm investing for is further down the road and I think the payoff is much higher. If I'm going in for a trade, all the details and potential mean squat. I'm there for $X and when I get it, I'm out. To heck with the potential or where it goes after I'm gone.....doesn't matter. I have found that all too often, a trade can TURN into an investment if you aren't disciplined on the exit strategy! So my answer would be "it depends"! Why did you buy it? If it's a trade chalk up a win and move on. If its an investment, hang around and see what happens.
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Post by CardsFan on Nov 14, 2019 9:23:58 GMT -5
Lionsgate just struck an interesting distribution deal with Amazon. Could get interesting quick
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2019 14:47:03 GMT -5
Lionsgate just struck an interesting distribution deal with Amazon. Could get interesting quick You could probably find enough loose change in the couches at Amazon to give Lions Gate a nice premium in a buyout.
Don't know what AMZN is waiting on.
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Post by CardsFan on Nov 14, 2019 19:41:52 GMT -5
Lionsgate just struck an interesting distribution deal with Amazon. Could get interesting quick You could probably find enough loose change in the couches at Amazon to give Lions Gate a nice premium in a buyout.
Don't know what AMZN is waiting on.
You're right, but I can't see it happening. Amazon has too many other things it's focusing on. That being said, as an Amazon Prime subscriber, it could really use a deeper content library, especially with Disney+, CBS and everyone else now pulling content from competing streams. CBS is still the most likely suitor. Hasbro, a one-time suitor, just bought out another video provider, so they are out. (Something about Peppa Pig, etc.. other kids shows I know nothing about). Had AT&T not promised Elliot Mgmt they wouldn't do any more deals, I'd actually think it would be suitor. It's had some big hits lately (ie... Joker) but also some big misses. Lionsgate has much better track record of producing positive margin films. I've never really thought about this until now, but you know who might make a good partner? Sony. I've read (from CEO remarks) that Sony wants to go back to its roots and focus more on engineering of new products. It would make a lot of sense for both Sony to split off its film division and merge with LGF. I haven't studied Sony's financials, but the library of films/TV of the joined entity would give Starz a let up, and minimize the need to split Starz off. It would also likely boost Starz international growth.
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Post by CardsFan on Dec 2, 2019 14:36:11 GMT -5
Knives Out did 41.7 million over Thanksgiving to place #1 for new movies shocking the pollsters. Rated 94 by the audience and 96 by the critics. I think it did 70 million opening weekend if you count worldwide receipts. Rumor is, director wants to do another one of these films with Daniel Craig. I'm starting to think Amazon may be the party that buys LGF.
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Post by heatdreamer on Dec 2, 2019 16:06:46 GMT -5
I think Apple should purchase Disney for $300 Billion , pick up many divisions as well as Fox. Apple puts $150 Billion down and finances the other $150 Billion, Apple's Cash flow growing by 3% per annum, covers the debt and some of the principal, the profits from the company will reduce the debt load with a decade
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2019 16:53:16 GMT -5
I still think Apple ends up with a stake in Tesla. Have thought that ever since I heard Tim Cook say "if you think about it, the car is the largest mobile device that we all use". It'd be a perfect fit for Apples ecosystem.
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Post by CardsFan on Dec 12, 2019 7:41:45 GMT -5
LGF's 2019 box office is $700M and counting, which is now double of LGF's 2018 box of $357M. Similarly box office market share doubled from 3% to 7%. John Wick 4's release date was just announced for May 21, 2021. Want to know why it's a big deal? It's the same day The Matrix 4 will be released by Warner Bros. Keanu Reeves may set a record for most money made by an actor in a single day.
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