|
Post by CardsFan on Dec 13, 2019 1:59:39 GMT -5
LGF's 2019 box office is $700M and counting, which is now double of LGF's 2018 box of $357M. Similarly box office market share doubled from 3% to 7%. John Wick 4's release date was just announced for May 21, 2021. Want to know why it's a big deal? It's the same day The Matrix 4 will be released by Warner Bros. Keanu Reeves may set a record for most money made by an actor in a single day. I almost forgot to mention that Bombshells closes out the year for LGF. I believe it just got nominated for one of the bigger awards. That's the type of movie I don't care to see but I'm sure it's got an audience.
|
|
|
Post by CardsFan on Dec 20, 2019 15:59:44 GMT -5
CBS-Viacom merger is complete and wouldn't you know it, they are back in deal-making mode and bought 49% of Miramax. Is Lionsgate next? That's been the rumor for years, but i still think Amazon makes more sense.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2019 16:05:02 GMT -5
CBS-Viacom merger is complete and wouldn't you know it, they are back in deal-making mode and bought 49% of Miramax. Is Lionsgate next? That's been the rumor for years, but i still think Amazon makes more sense. They were talking about Apple and MGM Studios yesterday.
I think LGF HAS to be snapped up. You did well on that one! Nice hit brother. Maybe merger Monday will see you get a 40% premium.
Years ago I saw MGM Studio's talked about as an equity. That was my first encounter with "the gray market". Symbol was MGMB. Saw it go from 25 to 90 or something like that.
Anybody else ever dealt with the Gray Market? I steered VERY clear of it. It made after hours trading look tame by comparison.
|
|
|
Post by CardsFan on Dec 21, 2019 5:15:59 GMT -5
CBS-Viacom merger is complete and wouldn't you know it, they are back in deal-making mode and bought 49% of Miramax. Is Lionsgate next? That's been the rumor for years, but i still think Amazon makes more sense. They were talking about Apple and MGM Studios yesterday.
I think LGF HAS to be snapped up. You did well on that one! Nice hit brother. Maybe merger Monday will see you get a 40% premium.
Years ago I saw MGM Studio's talked about as an equity. That was my first encounter with "the gray market". Symbol was MGMB. Saw it go from 25 to 90 or something like that.
Anybody else ever dealt with the Gray Market? I steered VERY clear of it. It made after hours trading look tame by comparison.
I don't think that sort of jump is even possible. I mean, LGF was trading in the 30-40 range not that long ago, but I just don't see it happening. The Miramax deal makes more sense, where a company buys 49% but doesn't get control. I'm not sure how much the stock would go up in that situation. Maybe it doubles...
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2019 7:41:24 GMT -5
Hey, you never know.....maybe the sector ends up in a "land grab" type situation. LGF was in the teens not too long ago as well.
I could easily see somebody doing a cash offer of $14
|
|
|
Post by CardsFan on Dec 23, 2019 10:08:13 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by laupailee on Dec 23, 2019 13:43:41 GMT -5
Lionsgate broke 9 today. Any chance we have a 'chartist' on the board who can give me an idea of where they think it goes? I'm a fundamentalist, but LGF was always meant to be a trade for me. Midway seem to be getting solid audience reviews, so depending on how 'Knives Out' performs over Thanksgiving, I'm trying to decide if I should hold until 1Q. Ryashlee, It looks like all hell wants to break loose for Lionsgate ... that is, unless it continues with more of the same and sinks back on downward. haha But actually, the chart is interesting. You can see that -- just below 11 -- it is poised right at the 135-day moving average. A breakthrough of that is bullish. Also, although I didn't draw the upper channel line, a move above 11 would also break the long-term upside price resistance line. Now, if those moves were decisive and held, say like if the stock moved to 12 or 13 and stayed there, you'd be looking at something quite exciting. There's no upside resistance or gravity after that, until you are in the mid-30s. I like that Amazon story. One way to wait for somebody to come and take them out is to speculate by buying cheap far-forward calls, well out of the money, to get the action of twenty or thirty thousand shares cheap ... and wait for a deal. For instance, Jan 15 2021's options at strike price $15 last traded for a buck and are now about $1.35. Buy 20,000 share's worth of action for maybe $25k and spin the wheel, roll the dice. If there is a buyout of LGF in the next year, you make ten times your bet. Just an idea ... fun, no? LPL
|
|
|
Post by ddmac2 on Dec 23, 2019 14:00:51 GMT -5
I am having finding the stock symbol for Lionsgate..
Can you tell me?
Thanks, Mac
|
|
|
Post by CardsFan on Dec 23, 2019 14:16:40 GMT -5
I am having finding the stock symbol for Lionsgate.. Can you tell me? Thanks, Mac There are two share classes. LGF-B is the one i own.
|
|
|
Post by CardsFan on Dec 23, 2019 14:21:49 GMT -5
Lionsgate broke 9 today. Any chance we have a 'chartist' on the board who can give me an idea of where they think it goes? I'm a fundamentalist, but LGF was always meant to be a trade for me. Midway seem to be getting solid audience reviews, so depending on how 'Knives Out' performs over Thanksgiving, I'm trying to decide if I should hold until 1Q. Ryashlee, It looks like all hell wants to break loose for Lionsgate ... that is, unless it continues with more of the same and sinks back on downward. haha But actually, the chart is interesting. You can see that -- just below 11 -- it is poised right at the 135-day moving average. A breakthrough of that is bullish. Also, although I didn't draw the upper channel line, a move above 11 would also break the long-term upside price resistance line. Now, if those moves were decisive and held, say like if the stock moved to 12 or 13 and stayed there, you'd be looking at something quite exciting. There's no upside resistance or gravity after that, until you are in the mid-30s. I like that Amazon story. One way to wait for somebody to come and take them out is to speculate by buying cheap far-forward calls, well out of the money, to get the action of twenty or thirty thousand shares cheap ... and wait for a deal. For instance, Jan 15 2021's options at strike price $15 last traded for a buck and are now about $1.35. Buy 20,000 share's worth of action for maybe $25k and spin the wheel, roll the dice. If there is a buyout of LGF in the next year, you make ten times your bet. Just an idea ... fun, no? LPL I don't usually trade stocks but i bought this one for a trade a couple of months back. It has some debt, but it's content library and recent movie deals plus exploding franchises like John Wick were too good to ignore. I have no idea where it will end up. I'd originally planned to sell around 14 or 15, but I'm now rethinking that. I don't own a ton of shares so at best, I'll make a 5-10g. I place a few 'speculative/contrarian' bets every year. That's all this was.
|
|
|
Post by ddmac2 on Dec 23, 2019 14:59:05 GMT -5
Laup:
Is your chart for LGF.A shares? thanks,Mac
|
|
|
Post by ddmac2 on Dec 23, 2019 16:22:44 GMT -5
Duh, the answer was in front of me.
|
|
|
Post by laupailee on Dec 23, 2019 21:09:20 GMT -5
Mac,
I used the A shares. No particular reason. I suspect they all trade in fairly close correlation.
Good luck!
LPL
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2019 7:14:09 GMT -5
Next one I'm wondering about is the newly merged CBS and Viacom
Symbol: VIAC
With Viacom's Paramount library and all that CBS owns (sport contracts, comedy shows, etc...) how long before a real streaming strategy comes along or how long before Amazon, Google, or Apple just tack them on to their media efforts.
AMC Networks (AMCX) is another one I watch. Leon Cooperman LOVES the company.....or at least he did the last time I heard him talk about it a few months ago. Thinks it worth far more than where it's at. He was however recommending it in the mid 50's, sooooo........
Discovery (DISCA) is also a player.
I think serious consolidation is needed in this industry.
|
|
|
Post by laupailee on Dec 26, 2019 10:19:46 GMT -5
Ryashlee, FF and Mac -
Okay, it is done. Spent a lot of time researching this one over the holidays and am comfortable. This morning I took a position in Lionsgate "A" (voting) shares, 10,000 at $10.35. Feel good about this and either gonna ride the bounce as this studio benefits from recent new alliances, etc., or am gonna get taken out with a big premium from Apple/Amazon/Company X when Lionsgate gets acquired.
(FF: to use your parlance, this is an "investment" for me, not just a trade. I am happy to ride this one for a couple years, if necessary.)
LPL
|
|
|
Post by ddmac2 on Dec 26, 2019 10:28:46 GMT -5
I bought shares LGF/B..
Thanks for your posts
|
|
|
Post by laupailee on Dec 26, 2019 12:06:09 GMT -5
Mac, the A and B shares appear to trade in precise sympathy. All I can determine is that the B are non-voting whereas the A shares do vote. Perhaps that explains the very slight premium of A over B. In any event, it is also interesting that John Malone owns about half the B shares, from a previous transaction. Here is a five year chart comparing A and B -- effectively the same issue:
|
|
|
Post by ddmac2 on Dec 26, 2019 12:32:05 GMT -5
Learned several things from you doing some homework for me. Thanks for sharing! Good luck on your buy. Mac
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2019 19:03:58 GMT -5
Lionsgate broke 9 today. Any chance we have a 'chartist' on the board who can give me an idea of where they think it goes? I'm a fundamentalist, but LGF was always meant to be a trade for me. Midway seem to be getting solid audience reviews, so depending on how 'Knives Out' performs over Thanksgiving, I'm trying to decide if I should hold until 1Q. I like that Amazon story. One way to wait for somebody to come and take them out is to speculate by buying cheap far-forward calls, well out of the money, to get the action of twenty or thirty thousand shares cheap ... and wait for a deal. For instance, Jan 15 2021's options at strike price $15 last traded for a buck and are now about $1.35. Buy 20,000 share's worth of action for maybe $25k and spin the wheel, roll the dice. If there is a buyout of LGF in the next year, you make ten times your bet. Just an idea ... fun, no? LPL Better yet. Fund the call buy by selling $8 puts. Carl Icahn called this "a synthetic long". If a deal hits, YOU make 10x somebody else's money!
Lionsgate just looks too obvious. Easy tack on acquisition for the whales swimming around in these waters.
|
|
|
Post by CardsFan on Dec 26, 2019 19:05:23 GMT -5
Ryashlee, FF and Mac - Okay, it is done. Spent a lot of time researching this one over the holidays and am comfortable. This morning I took a position in Lionsgate "A" (voting) shares, 10,000 at $10.35. Feel good about this and either gonna ride the bounce as this studio benefits from recent new alliances, etc., or am gonna get taken out with a big premium from Apple/Amazon/Company X when Lionsgate gets acquired. (FF: to use your parlance, this is an "investment" for me, not just a trade. I am happy to ride this one for a couple years, if necessary.) LPL I've never viewed movie studios as long term holdings, not even disney. Even the best run ones ebb and flow with production slates. For example, Disney is going to have brutal comps next year, because 2019 had so many hits. Lionsgate could also be in the same situation. 2021 should see a bounce because John Wick 4 will be out then. Since i bought in at 7 and some change, i could very well sell as soon as this Spring, and look to buy back in later in the year. I own this in a Roth account so i don't have to worry about tax selling issues. I always keep 5% of my money in spec plays, so this is one of those plays, along with some tech/biotech/5G names. I don't think you'll have to wait too long to see a big move, one way or another. The Comcast deal removed a major hurdle. Right now, all eyes will be on how Starz is doing, and whether or not LGF still plans to go at it alone.
|
|
|
Post by CardsFan on Jan 8, 2020 8:41:34 GMT -5
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2020 9:30:46 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by CardsFan on Jan 8, 2020 10:26:22 GMT -5
Disney is an entirely different animal. Disney also owes a lot of its success to buying out other franchises, since it's failed at creating much in house. Stars Wars, Marvel, etc... were all acquired. Hence my original interest in Lionsgate. It's one of the few studios consistently creating new successful franchises that are wildly profitable. Which is why a take-out is inevitable. If you scan the recent successful franchises, ones created in the last 5-10 years, the only ones owned by Disney were acquired, with maybe Frozen being the exception. www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2020/01/06/knives-out-sequel-rian-johnson-daniel-craig-lionsgate-keanu-reeves-john-wick-box-office/#725446673fcdI'm not knocking Disney either. It's a machine that I'd purchase if it dropped into my buy zone.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2020 19:57:12 GMT -5
You're the resident media mogul. I say trust your gut and go with it. You did well here....win win situation. No wrong move, you got a cushion. Either move works, add to winners or taking profits....you have options! Great place to be. Only thing I watch out for is this....if I go into the position AS A TRADE, I make myself take the trade. Remember what they say: an investment is nothing but a trade gone bad!
|
|
|
Post by laupailee on Jan 9, 2020 7:47:44 GMT -5
You're the resident media mogul. I say trust your gut and go with it. You did well here....win win situation. No wrong move, you got a cushion. Either move works, add to winners or taking profits....you have options! Great place to be. Only thing I watch out for is this....if I go into the position AS A TRADE, I make myself take the trade. Remember what they say: an investment is nothing but a trade gone bad! FF, I think you buy it, hold it, and wait for it to either bounce bigtime or get acquired. To me, your idea of a "trade" implies a shorter timeframe, a limited gain target. I see more being available. Though it will take a little patience, there is a great story here and investment opportunity with LGF. It is very Buffett, to buy a wounded company like LGF just before it heals up and goes on a run or gets bought for mucho dinero! LPL
|
|