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Post by halmorris on Dec 29, 2013 4:02:41 GMT -5
Hi, No longer a Lurker...... I have been a share holder since the IPO and also was lucky enough to buy more when the market tanked and Sheldon put in his own money, with that said I have a few observations. LVS has said it will not do a REIT but instead will sell its non core gaming assets. This leads me to believe we will see a Special Dividend in 2014, I believe Sheldon does not like Dividends at all but someone has clued him in on Shareholder happiness. we need less of his zaniness in '14. When WYNN does good LVS does good, with share buybacks the pps should hit $100, what can LVS do to get on the good side of the stock market ? and when will we see the same respect as WYNN ?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2013 9:32:12 GMT -5
Welcome hal, glad to have you aboard! That ride since the ipo has been…hmmm…interesting I suppose would be the word uh? Another Special Dividend from LVS would surprise me, I think they are going to focus on providing double digit dividend growth and share buybacks. Thats the feeling I get from management anyway. You bring up a good point about Wynn. And in case you didn't see the thread, another member correctly accused me of having a bromance with Steve Wynn, sooooo keep that in mind.  The dude is smooth. Listen to the conference calls and you can see the difference between Sheldon and Steve. I've long said when Sheldon basically tells analyst they are full of **** or to go to hell, its done in his brash and "in your face" way and analyst are generally taken back by it (egg on your face towels a prime example). Steve can tell them the same thing, but in such a way they thank him. I think this just comes from the fact Steve has been to this dance before (i.e…having a publicly ran company) whereas this is Sheldon's initial go around with it. So, Steve knows the PR/Wall St. relation game better and is very "polished" when speaking to them and in return gains their respect. Their approach to online gambling another prime example. Wynn is also more conservative, which is what I think leads investors and analyst to "stand by it" so to speak. Steve has never said he wants to be first….what he has said is that he likes to let others take the risk, see how they do, then just figure out how to do it better. Sheldon is the swashbuckling "nothing ventured nothing gained" type of CEO that carries with it a higher degree of risk. And on the "return of capital" front….Wynn has paid many people back a multiple of what they have invested in the stock. He has been doing special dividends for quite some time. Since 2006 he's returned over $47 per share (regular and special dividends combined)….his IPO price was $13 a few year earlier. And, lastly, read this Ron Baron, Forbes interview: www.forbes.com/2010/10/01/ibm-strayer-madoff-intelligent-investing-baron.htmlThis type of track record is why the Wynn gets the love and why I THINK he will get a Japan license, the track record of success. Like he said on the last conference call…don't listen to what a developer "says" he'll do, look at what he has done. Lawrence Ho is now kind of in the same spot, he's having to earn respect as the new guy on the block. I've invested in Steve Wynn since the 90's and again, I've posted in the past, he's the one CEO that if he came to me and said he was doing a project, but couldn't tell me anything about it, but did I want in….I'd get my checkbook out and write him as big of a check as I could and not give it a second thought. But I ramble! Welcome again Hal, and thats why I don't think you'll see LVS get the same respect as Wynn "on the street" or in the media. FF |
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Post by Blitz on Dec 29, 2013 11:51:35 GMT -5
Hal, welcome. Here's my 2 cents worth. LVS has been getting a bit more of that luv you were asking for. If you go to 'google finance' and put in WYNN and LVS you will see LVS has an EPS share multiple of 29 and WYNN is at 30. So, it's getting better for LVS.
As FF pointed out, Stevie is happy to let others take the risks associated with being first. Steve continually proves he can make money by being second and then adding value with his flare and ability to cater to the opulent style VIP gamblers seem to like.
IMO, Steve's special dividends were all about his divorce. The x-wife forced the issue or forced Steve to get creative. She got lots of money, he got lots of money, he kept more control of WYNN. Steve learned he liked special dividends too.
LVS' special dividend was more about retiring preferred shares with their dividend, dividend tax breaks expiring and funds for PAC's. I do not see any LVS special dividends without a corresponding non-core asset sale. The non-core asset sales part of LVS' business plan would also seem to exclude any kind of REIT spin off. A REIT is just not something that fits SA's style. Remember SA gets 1/2 of all that dividend money. If he a choice he'd get 100%. I don't think he likes sharing it at all. A REIT means he has to share more of the core of 'his' company.
Sheldon and quarterly conference calls... It's SA's platform to pontificate and gloat. It's his forum to point out how right he is and how wrong everyone else is. It just is, what it is, with SA. He knows Leven is much better at it than he is. If he didn't like gloating he would just let Leven handle the public portion of discussing earnings. Really, it's just so obvious that Leven is so much better at it.
Now getting back to why WYNN gets more luv than LVS... LVS is not a 'real' Wall ST corporation run like a 'real' multi-national, multi-billion dollar corporation, with a 'real' Board of Directors, and answerable to all investors. LVS is SA's bat, ball, and 'sands' box. Why? He owns over 51% of LVS. He can take his toys and go home. He makes all the decisions... after that it's end of discussion, until he decides otherwise. That's why Jacobs was not paid off and Suen was not paid off and SA gets on his high horse at conference calls... he wants to. All that said, without SA's ability to do all that, we would not have the Venetian in Vegas, MBS in Singapore and The Cotai Strip in Macau. So, with SA, you get the good, the bad and the ugly... egg towels.
Regarding Japan, I think MBS' success makes LVS a 99.9% lock to be awarded a concession for one of the first two IR/Casinos allowed in Japan... if they approve them, in June?
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Post by birdnest on Dec 29, 2013 22:31:44 GMT -5
Blitz, you are right on with your comments. I completely agree. Go LV$$$$$
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Post by halmorris on Dec 29, 2013 22:47:56 GMT -5
Wow, Thanks for the info, I was looking for a board with informed LVS folks and I found it, Thank You
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2014 22:31:24 GMT -5
Hello all, Not new to LVS but new to this lvs freeforums site; so I'm making the rounds to see what is on here. Couldn't agree more with halmorris that this is a great board with very informed investors. Cheers! In a side note, I have discovered a very cool book (published 2009) documenting the trials and tribulations of Steve Wynn (Mirage), Kirk Kerkorian (MGM), Gary Loveman (Harrahs, now Caesars) in Las Vegas through the years. A very informative book, although I was also somewhat surprised SA wasn't covered. I paid $15 or so for a used paperback copy on Ebay a year ago, but have since bought 2 copies of the hardcover for $1 each at a local Dollar Tree. Here's the link to Amazon, where you can see what the cover looks like if you want to go fishing at your local Dollar Tree, or I see Amazon also has used versions for your selection. www.amazon.com/Winner-Takes-All-Kerkorian-Loveman/dp/B002KHMZJAI think it may be helpful to read the reviews of this book at Amazon before deciding, but I found it a great read. At least reviewer, I see, almost mentions the obvious lack of coverage of SA and for this he is highly critical of the book. I disagree that this skews the value of the reporting in the book in any meaningful way. tf |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2014 8:11:44 GMT -5
tf,
Read that a few years ago. Wynn "I SOLD it to him"!! ha ha
Or loved the part where, can't remember who it was…..but one company was trying to buy another company and they were stuck around the $22 price. Finally they got the deal done and one exec from the acquiring company told another exec at the target company "we would have paid $25", to which the other exec said "we would have taken $20"
It was a good book.
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Post by mrtaxx on Jan 5, 2014 10:37:24 GMT -5
hal.... Adelson Loves dividends, it's the way he gets money without selling stock.
IMO only 2 senarios will produce Special Dividends:
Sale of Non-Core Assets or
If the Federal Government raises taxes again
Adelson is putting LVS at risk again and i'm getting concerned, he's spending to much Cash on:
Regular Dividends
A Useless Buy Back which will only reduce float by a few percent, I don't understand the Buy Back at all it's a waste of money IMO.
LVS's LT Debt is still very high and increased last Q to about $9.8B, by spending Cash on Dividends and the Buy Back Adelson is reducing Cash to almost zero. Prior to the Increase in the Regular Dividend and the Buy Back announcement NET LT Debt was less then $7B after the Regular Dividend payout and Buy Back, Cash will be near Zero with LT Debt near $10B.
If GGR slows in the coming years LT Debt may again become a major problem.
The only thing that will relieve my concerns about LVS financials/cash is if Adelson sells the Non-Core assets and sells them soon.
The Non-Core Assets:
Co-op;s: (maybe worth $1B?, 3 years ago Adelson indicated the Co-ops were about to be sold and to date not 1 has been sold.
Beth PA , maybe worth $1B, will be a hard sell since NY has now approved Gambling,
The Macau Assets are available to be sold now and i'm hoping they will be sold soon
MBS Non-Core Assets can be sold in 2017, however, at the same time Singapore Tax Rates will probably rise.
If Japan approves Gambling and LVS gets a Licence, LVS may not have the Cash to do a deal since Adelson is spending all LVS's Cash for Regular Dividends and Buy Backs.
However if Macau GGR stays strong and improves and Non-Core Assets are sold then LVS may have enough Cash to relieve my LVS financial concerns.
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Post by Blitz on Jan 5, 2014 15:03:54 GMT -5
Taxx, I think the buybacks are just to cover all the stock warrants SA uses to compensate his top managers. Since I've owned LVS the share count has gone from 600K shares to almost 900K shares. That destroys the EPS optics...
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Post by mrtaxx on Jan 5, 2014 18:18:32 GMT -5
I know the management fonuses 600M to 824M was mostly due to the low stock price at the time. Not much of the new $2B BB is for management bonuses, the days of big management bonuses should be gone due to the higher stock price.
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Post by platnumtouch on Jan 6, 2014 7:16:29 GMT -5
Hello Everyone :
could someone please explain what these discussions mean for the share price - re : long term debt and actual number of shares issued ?
I am a long term holder and thinking of buying some more shares. But, if the price is vulnerable or volatile, would it be better to hold off.
To me it is a big deal, because I do not own much in terms of assets, and can not afford to take a big hit if the price drops.
Is LVS pretty safe ?
Any explanations please, would be much appreciated.
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Post by Blitz on Jan 6, 2014 7:55:01 GMT -5
platnum... you ask if LVS is volatile and pretty safe. I would ask you, what your definition for both of those terms. I would also ask you how comfortable you are with LVS' historical price swings. Google 'LVS' price chart via Yahoo Financial or Google Financal. Go back 5 years and then look at 3 month chunks of time periods throughout that 5 years. I see a roller coaster ride in the short term and a rising mountain range long term. Is that volatile? to me it is. So, my answer is long term, right now, LVS 'is' pretty safe. Will it stay that way? Nobody knows for sure. Will China have that hard landing everybody was talking about? Will China restrict Macau visas? Will a mega typhoon hit Macau? Will Vegas recover to pre-2009 levels? Will the US economy grow at 3% this year? Will Japan approve casinos? Who knows?
My point... AT&T, VZ, GE and EOM are not very volatile and pretty safe...
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Post by platnumtouch on Jan 6, 2014 10:09:24 GMT -5
Thank you mbablitz.
LVS I s dropping a bit today.
Maybe if it drops to around 76 that would be a safe entry point.
It seems as if LVS has a long way to climb.
But, the prospect of on line gambling can put it behind the eight ball. MGM seems attractive as an alternative to LVS. Maybe, not a bad idea o get some MGM. as it is getting choice properties for future casinos, and with on line gambling possibly occurring in a big way.
best wishes to you for your ideas. Thank you. I am a small timer.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2014 16:40:10 GMT -5
plat....check out the article I posted under "articles on LVS" titled Sheldon vs the world. Good article from Forbes that hit the wires this morning about online gaming.
Agree 100000% with Blitz......safe is in the eyes and prior entry point of the beholder.
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Post by platnumtouch on Jan 6, 2014 16:58:21 GMT -5
Thanks, a good article. But it did not answer the question regarding whether to jump into MGM as a future on line gambling leader. Any one have thoughts on investing MGM ? Maybe, in some ways it is like LVS four years ago.
Any ideas appreciated.
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Post by lazzybum on Jan 10, 2014 21:09:23 GMT -5
I traded in and out. Never intend to be an investor.
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Post by Blitz on Jan 11, 2014 6:36:42 GMT -5
Platnum, iGaming is small right now and I don't see it getting real big real soon. I think it will be rife with cheating too. If you want to buy MGM because you think it will pop big due to internet gaming bringing in billions of dollars, I think you will be disappointed. Here are a couple of articles for you to read... Gambling News Mike ODonnell What do we know about US iGaming in 2014? January 8, 2014 modqs-what-do-we-know-about-us-igaming-in-2014It’s the time of year when predictions about all walks of life are rife. This is also the case in the iGaming industry with second guesses being made about all aspects from tax levels to marketing. But rather than spread myself too thin by looking at all of these exhaustive topics, I thought it might be worth focusing on a specific area that I’ve been doing my very best to keep up with in the last couple of months – the regulated states of America. This is certainly no mean feat and there are many areas that require those much better schooled in law than me to fully comprehend them. With a constant flow of news from not only iGaming industry sources but also local and political media outlets, it’s pretty hard to keep track of what’s what and separate the confirmed from the could be. It’s pretty noticeable that the sections including information that we know are considerably smaller than those based on possibilities. Unfortunately, that is symptomatic of a slow moving situation where nothing is really set in stone until it’s signed into law. With all of that in mind, below is an attempted summary of where we stand and what could be happening this year. Regulated states What we know: Nevada, New Jersey and Delaware are the only US states to offer regulated online gambling. What I think: That the list above isn’t going to change in the next twelve months. While it might be the case that one or maybe two states get their bills passed, it’s extremely unlikely that they’ll be launching in the next twelve months. With the level of scrutiny that iGaming regulation is under, neither lawmakers or operators want to make any mistakes and certainly won’t rush into anything. The general consensus seems to be many states are unsurprisingly keeping an eye on those that have already regulated. Should they be successful then this can be used to add more weight to the argument that online gambling should be regulated. Due to the population sizes, New Jersey is likely to be the key here. States making the most noise about online gambling include Pennsylvania and New York who are both likely to be encourage by success in New Jersey. Other states with significant and well-established casinos such as Mississippi and Louisiana are likely to look towards iGaming if they can ease concerns over cannibalisation. Of course there’s also the considerable matter of what many operators are seeing as the big prize. California What we know: In addition to the issues surrounding online gambling regulation that all states are facing, California has the added complexity of factoring in the 107 federally recognised tribal nations in the state. What I think: California is on the road to regulated online gambling. However, it’s already been a long road and progress is pretty slow. It’s hard to overstate the importance of California with its population being around four times that of New Jersey. It’s thought that the Sunshine state is the only state that will offer enough liquidity to poker operators to enable them to profit without the need for interstate compacts. As well as tribes that will need to be kept sweet, card clubs and the larger corporate casino companies will all be involved in the mix. A compromise that suits all of these is yet to be found but there have been suggestions of offering up three licenses with one for a group of tribes, one for a group of card clubs and one for a corporate company such as Caesars, IGT or bwin.party. Another previous proposal that died but could still factor in a diluted fashion would be to offer an unlimited number of licenses but for each operator to be required to pay a non-refundable $30 million. Key lawmakers What we know: Joe Barton has fighting a losing battle for online poker legislation at a Federal level while New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has obviously been instrumental in the regulation of online gambling in the Garden State. Previous ally Barney Frank has retired while Harry Reid has toned down his efforts in this area after becoming disillusioned with its progress leaving the industry in need of more supporters in high places. What I think: In the cold light of day the most important lawmakers to the future of the online gambling industry in the US are those that haven’t been overly outspoken on the subject. In California, State Senator Roderick Wright and State Senator Lou Correa will be on everyone’s lobbying list as they are the security at the door of the party that everyone wants to be at. On the other side of the country the Senate Republican leadership in Pennsylvania could prove important. A gambling study is being undertaken at the moment with the results due to be published by May with the state’s budget being finalized in July. A positive interpretation of these results by those in positions of power could provide PA with a fast track to regulation. Federal legislation What we know: At the moment, there is no federal legislation. Republican Joe Barton has introduced HR 2666 which he called the Internet Poker Freedom Act of 2013. What I think: Federal legislation will probably happen, eventually. Barton has had trouble moving his bill along due to the perceived controversial nature of it and things aren’t going to get any easier now that Sheldon Adelson has signaled his intent to oppose iGaming legislation of any kind. Although Adelson’s lobbying campaign hasn’t got off to a great start, he’s expected to spend big in order to make his views known. Adelson’s presence opens up the possibility, however unlikely, that there could be federal legislation that would actually block the efforts of states to regulate online gambling. On a more positive note (of sorts), the federal budget is running as low as those of the states meaning that any potential revenue that could be bought in by iGaming is going to be considered even if it’s for no reason other than to be pragmatic. calvinayre.com/2014/01/08/business/modqs-what-do-we-know-about-us-igaming-in-2014/And this one: www.onlinepokerreport.com/10121/nj-online-gambling-first-weeks-revenue-predicition/Teaser: Obviously I’m coming in closer to the high end of the consensus. But I believe the amount of promotional money that casinos and poker sites have contributed to the pool will provide a boost, even if it’s somewhat illusory. As for what the actual number says about the health and momentum of New Jersey’s regulated online gambling industry when it’s released on January 14th, I’d argue that anything over $10mm is a win, anything over $15mm is a massive win and anything below $6mm is a huge disappointment. |
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