Citi says record premium mass play during Golden week

Macau’s Golden Week shines as analysts point to “billion-dollar week”

 by Ben Blaschke Tue 8 Oct 2024 at 01:57
www.asgam.com/index.php/2024/10/08/macaus-golden-week-shines-as-analysts-point-to-billion-dollar-week/

Macau’s gaming operators averaged daily gaming revenues of more than MOP$1 billion during the first six days of the Golden Week holiday, only slightly lower than during the same period in 2019 and 30% higher than in 2023, analysts have revealed.

In a note, JP Morgan’s DS Kim, Mufan Shi and Selina Li said that total GGR for the six days from 1 to 6 October reached MOP$6.5 billion (US$812 million) at an average of MOP$1.08 billion (US$135 million) per day.

This, they observed “not only beat the market’s expectations of between MOP$850 million to MOP$900 million (US$106 million to US$112 million) per day by a significant margin but was also the highest run-rate in five years since the 2019 Oct Golden Week.”

The print implies that mass GGR reached up to 140% of pre-COVID levels and VIP up to 35%, JP Morgan said, indicating that spending per capita also improved sharply, by around 25% versus pre-COVID levels.

“Anecdotally, we heard quite a few high-end premium mass players had delayed their September trip to this Golden Week to attend the Andy Lau concert (3 to 6 October at Galaxy’s Arena), and this seems to have helped the above-seasonal recovery in premium mass,” JP Morgan said. “Either way, we are encouraged to see all sub-segments performing well above expectations across the board.”

Seaport Research Partners’ Vitaly Umansky described Golden Week as a “test case for Macau resilience” but said the industry “passed the test, delivering what looks to be much better than expected revenue during the holiday period.”

However, he has maintained his GGR forecast for the full month of October at MOP$21.5 billion (US$2.68 billion), up 10.3% year-on-year and 24.6% month-on-month.

“We expect November and December to follow normal historical trends, with December being a bit weaker than normal due to the expected visit of General Secretary Xi for one day,” Umansky added. “As such, we currently forecast Q4 GGR to be MOP$59.9 billion (US$7.45 billion), up 10.6% year-on-year and 7.6% quarter-on-quarter.”

I think of it as buy the rumor, sell the news. 

I would guess $60 would be tops for a while. Why? If you look at the stock price before LVS sold its Vegas venues and those venues added about 12% to 15% to the bottom line... $60 seems about right.