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Post by Blitz on Apr 16, 2024 7:52:34 GMT -5
China’s economy grows by 5.3% year-on-year in 1Q24, exceeding forecasts by Pierce Chan Tue 16 Apr 2024 www.asgam.com/index.php/2024/04/16/chinas-economy-grows-by-5-3-year-on-year-in-1q24-exceeding-forecasts/The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that mainland China’s economy grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, beating the forecast of 4.8% and up 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) was about RMB29.6 trillion (US$4.09 trillion). The “troika” – China’s economic indicator of consumption, export and investment – also rose in the first quarter, but the scale of the industrial sector and total consumption were weaker than expected at 6.1% versus the expected 6.6%. Total retail sales of consumer goods increased by about RMB12 trillion (US$1.66 trillion), up 4.7% year-on-year and also weaker than the expected 5.4%, while investment in fixed assets increased by RMB10 trillion (US$1.38 trillion) or 4.5% year-on-year, which was higher than the expected 4%. By sector, the service sector grew by 5% in the first quarter, with transport, storage and postal services up by 7.3% and tourism, accommodation and food and beverage services by 7.3%. Per capita, average disposable income for the first quarter was RMB11,539 (US$1,595), up 6.2% year-on-year after discounting the effect of price factors. By region, per capita disposable income for urban residents was RMB15,150 (US$2,090), an increase of 5.3% in real terms, while per capita disposable income for rural residents was RMB6,596 (US$911), an increase of 7.7%.
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Post by Blitz on Apr 16, 2024 7:53:36 GMT -5
Oil Prices Rise as China’s Q1 Economic Growth Beats Expectations By Irina Slav - Apr 16, 2024, 2:30 AM CDT oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Rise-as-Chinas-Q1-Economic-Growth-Beats-Expectations.htmlChina’s first-quarter economic growth data is out and it’s an expectation beater. The country’s GDP grew at a rate of 5.3% during the first three months, versus Reuters economist poll expectations of 4.6%. Oil prices rose following the release of the report. Strong GDP data is normally bullish for oil prices, especially when it comes from a consumer as giant as China. The publication noted, however, that other economic indicators including retail sales, real estate investment, and industrial output suggested domestic demand was still weak. Yet it was only weak compared to forecasts. Industrial output, for instance, rose by 4.5% on the year in March but it was a slowdown from the growth rate of 7% sustained during the first two months of the year. Retail sales, as cited by Reuters, also rose solidly in March, by 3.1%, but the figure was once again a slowdown from the January-February growth rate, which ran at 5.5%. Forecasts saw retail sales growth of 4.6%, Reuters said in its report. Regardless of the likely overambitious analyst expectations, the figures suggest sustained strong demand for oil in China—the world’s largest importer. During the first two months of the year, that demand was supported by the Lunar New Year holiday—which likely also boosted both retail sales and maybe industrial activity in that period. Going forward, some expect demand growth to slow down thanks to EVs and high-speed rail. That’s the forecast of the International Energy Agency which saw Chinese oil demand grow at some 500,000 bpd this year, declining to 300,000 bpd in 2025. Yet China’s CNPC just inked a preliminary deal for importing oil from Niger, which suggests expectations of sustainable oil demand growth in the country. The deal is worth $400 million and will help Niger boost its oil output fivefold, which would put it on the oil exporter map. By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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Post by bjspokanimal on Apr 16, 2024 18:54:20 GMT -5
Growth in China is all about marginal growth in oil consumption. Still, I hope that too much demand right now doesn't fuel a surge in oil prices that spurs excessive, land-based drilling. Oil prices over the past year have done well to steadily tighten the demand for floating drilling rigs as well as to ensure analysts' opinions that the oil cycle has many more years to run.
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