Post by Blitz on Dec 18, 2023 7:48:21 GMT -5
THE TUCHFARBER REPORT
No Lies, Spin, or Fake News Here. The TR is Not About Ideology. It Is About Hard Facts.
December 18, 2023
Holiday Schedule
The Tuchfarber Report will be published over the holidays except there will be no December 25 issue, Christmas Day. The January 1 TR will be an expanded issue.
Merry Christmas & Happy New Year - I wish all of you a very happy Christmas and a great new year!
The 2020s Realignment
The concept “realignment” has a specific meaning for political scientists like me. It denotes one election or a series of elections where the demographic groups that make the coalitions of the D and R parties change in a major way.
The largest US political realignment happened in the 1930 and 1932 elections after the start of the Great Depression. The Republicans dominated American politics from the late 1890s until 1930, but that changed rapidly because of the depression.
With the depression came 25% unemployment. White working class/blue collar voters were devastated economically. Millions of them abandoned the R party for the Ds and FDR. That allowed the D party to dominate American politics for generations.
Another much less noticed realignment started in the early 2000s. It was less obvious because it had several important components, some of which helped the Ds and some the Rs.
Bringing numerous votes to the Ds were:
A rapidly growing Hispanic population and voters who went heavily to the Ds.
The same was true with Asian-Americans.
The Black population did not increase in their percentage of the population, but their turnout percentage rose markedly, again to the benefit of the Ds.
Upscale well-educated white suburban women shifted a significant percentage of their votes to the Ds because of social issues like abortion, gay rights, guns, and religion. A majority of them began voting for D candidates.
From 2000 to 2020 there were also major changes in the demographics of the R party coalition.
Millions of white working-class voters moved to the R party in the 2000s and 2010s. Donald Trump was not the cause of that shift but took full advantage of it to win the 2016 nomination and Presidency.
Also, voters in rural areas and towns shifted strongly to the Rs and away from the Ds.
The cause of both of those shifts to the Rs was that the D party’s leaders increasingly moved their party to the left and toward radical positions that deviated from long-held American values like patriotism, religion and morality, and good jobs for the working class. Both Clinton and Obama essentially abandoned the white working-class and called them “deplorables.”
These major demographic shifts in the two parties occurred in parallel and ironically cancelled each other out. The 2000 election, Gore v. Bush, was a tie. The two parties maintained roughly equal strength during the twenty years that followed.
In the TR I have often cited Ruy Teixeira, a well-respected D strategist. He has written many articles agreeing with the analysis above. He now believes, as do I, that a new realignment is underway which may devastate the D party.
For the same reasons that white working-class voters became R voters, increasing radicalism by the D elites are driving Hispanic, Asian, and Black working-class D voters away and toward the R party. Democratic policies favor the professional elites over the working class and middle-middle-class. The transgender radicalism makes no sense to most voters. The authoritarianism of D governors and mayors during the pandemic was deeply offensive to many. And, for most D leaders, patriotism is passe.
A substantial move of minority working-class voters to the Rs began during the pandemic. That shift showed up in the 2020 elections, 2022 elections, and in polling for 2024. Teixeira and many D and R pollsters and analysts have documented it.
The minority working-class as a group is huge. It is about 30-35 million voters and 20% of all voters. Even a fraction of this group moving to the Rs would be a disaster for the Ds.
Importantly, there is no sign any significant demographic group is now moving to the Ds from the Rs.
We’ll see how big the political impact of this realignment is in the elections on November 5, 2024. [See Teixeira article below for more details.]
Biden Impeachment Investigation
The Republican House has now initiated a formal impeachment investigation of Joe Biden. That gives them many more investigatory powers. But don’t think for a minute that the House will impeach Biden and then the D dominated Senate will have 67 votes to remove him. Biden may leave office, but he will not be removed by the Congress.
The impeachment inquiry will provide a basis for digging up dirt on the Biden family. But it may backfire and turn Biden into a martyr the way Trump has been turned into a martyr.
Politically Interesting
The Supreme Court is actively considering whether to take an important case related to the Jan. 6, 2021, riots. It relates directly to President Trump’s assertion that his actions before and during that event were legitimate based on the powers and duties any President has. Were that to be ruled the case, his prosecution in DC would be dropped or modified. In any case, his scheduled March trial will almost certainly be delayed.
A second case has been taken by the court and applies to many of the Jan. 6 defendants as well as Trump. Federal prosecutors used a seldom if ever used interpretation of federal law to charge most of the Jan. 6 defendants. With their aggressive interpretation they made simply protesting at the Capitol and/or entering it while doing nothing further wrong a felony. The defendants in the cases argue their first amendment right to seek redress from the government protects them from felony charges if he did nothing further wrong. Trump’s case can argue the same for him as a citizen as well as President. Stay tuned …
Using the 14th amendment to keep Trump off the ballot has failed so far. There is little chance that by Election Day Trump will be off any state ballot if he the R nominee.
The President of the University of Pennsylvania has resigned in disgrace after defending the rights of her students to call for genocide against Jews. Heavy pressure is building to the get other University Presidents to resign as they failed to defend against vicious harassment of Jews on their campuses.
This is a very good sign that Americans are finally rejecting the radical left and their anarchic leftism.
Ruy Teixeira and Realignment
As I noted above, Ruy Teixeira is a well-respected D strategist. Below are direct quotes from an article entitled, “The Democratic Coalition Is Falling Apart”, which he published on the free social media site, The Liberal Patriot, just a few days ago.
Teixeira writes … “Let’s face it: the Democratic coalition is in poor shape. It’s springing leaks everywhere – young voters, Hispanic voters, black voters, women voters, working-class voters, moderate, and independent ones. … The Democratic ‘base’ as a whole … is an amalgamation of Democratic-friendly demographic groups: Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, LGBTQ+ community, Gen Z, millennials, unmarried and college women. … Their most pressing issue by far for the country is inflation and the cost of living. Crime, homelessness, and violence [as a set] is second while, interestingly, abortion only ranks eighth. … The big lead the Democrats feel should be theirs is not appearing. … Despite their dire assessment of the threat posed by Trump, moves to compromise on contentious issues that persuadable issues voters care about are few and far between. … It’s hard to understand.”
Teixeira is convinced that unless the Ds move rapidly back to the political center, they will lose badly to the Rs next year and beyond. He believes the realignment I wrote about above is well underway.
Political Handicapping
This section is a handicapping section, not a prediction section.
It is now shaping up that we will have seven or more reasonably well-known candidates running for President next year. Most will have a “political brand” of their own or from the political party they are representing. Included are Trump, the D nominee, Kennedy, West, Stein, probably Manchin on the No Labels ticket, the Libertarian party candidate, and perhaps others.
Based on third-party performance in elections since WWII, these third-party candidates will receive about 15% to 20% in the final voting. The three third-party candidates now in the race are averaging 17% in the polls.
Before the November voting, the polls may show their collective support at 20% or more. History shows third-party numbers stay high through October, then decline by up to a half.
DEMOCRATS
Biden’s senility, dementia, corruption, terrible polls, and the expanding turmoil in his party over Hamas v. Israel will force him to resign. He won’t be the 2024 D nominee. But the D who will be is still unknown.
REPUBLICANS
Trump still has about a 50-point national lead over the field. His leads in IA and NH average 20% to 30%. His supporters are solidly committed to him.
If you take a close look at the national, IA, and NH polls over the last 90 days, 60 days, 30 days, and 14 days you see little change, with Trump maintaining large leads.
Over the last month, Trump gained 2% nationally, gained 5% in IA, and lost 1% in NH.
Over the same period, DeSantis was minus 1% nationally and +3% in IA. He gained 1% in NH.
Haley gained 2% nationally, 2% in IA, and 3% in NH, but still trails Trump by 20% to 30% or higher margins everywhere.
Ramaswamy is flatlining.
Note that the Iowa caucuses are January 15, just four weeks away, and the NH primary follows on January 23. Haley, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy have very little time to catch Trump, especially because the next two weeks will be dominated by the holidays, not politics.
THE GENERAL ELECTIONS HANDICAPPED
President – The odds are over 80% the President inaugurated on January 20, 2025, will be a Republican. Reasons – It is virtually impossible for the inflation, immigration, and crime problems to be solved by the Biden and Harris administration before November 2024. A weak economy in 2024 is likely. The D Party is fracturing over the Gaza war. The realignment underway also seriously threatens all potential D candidates.
Senate – There is close to a 100% chance the Rs will have a Senate majority in January 2025. Reason – liberal and conservative analysts agree, the eight Senate seats most vulnerable next year are all D seats. Just two seats need to flip to have a R majority.
House – In 2025, the Republicans are likely to have a 35-seat or larger majority. Reasons: Inflation is the ultimate “kitchen table” issue. And the 2024 economy is unlikely to be strong. Over one-half of voters will be struggling month-to-month to pay their bills all through 2024.
I’ll update and explain these odds as the facts change.
Speculation – What Does the Political Lay of the Land Look Like for the 2024 Presidential Race?
The thoughts presented here are not predictions. They are a mix of hard facts, what the history of campaigns has taught us, and informed speculation based on the current actions of the Presidential candidates and campaigns. The current poll numbers are also factored in.
REPUBLICAN NOMINEE -- probably Trump, otherwise Haley. DeSantis and Ramaswamy are essentially flatlining, while Haley is gaining a little on Trump but too slowly.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE – it will not be Biden. But the D strategy is still a mystery. Filing deadlines for the 15 states with primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday, March 5, occurred last week and no major D candidate filed other than Biden.
By Friday Jan. 5, 2024, the filing deadlines for state Presidential primaries and caucuses will have passed in about 30 states. It does not appear that we will have a contested D primary and caucus battle for the D nomination. It may be the D nominee is selected at their convention in Chicago in mid-August.
NEXT PRESIDENT – Very likely to be Trump or Haley. Why?
Terrible and worsening Biden and Harris poll numbers.
The many serious Biden-Harris administration problems which cannot be solved before Nov. 5, 2024.
The Gaza war fracturing the D Party.
Working-class Hispanics, Asians, and Blacks are drifting away from the D Party because of its radicalism.
These negatives will harm any D Presidential nominee.
Do not just accept my analysis. CHECK MY FACTS, LOGIC, AND ANALYSES!
Polls
I will be reporting mostly on the 5-way race Presidential polls going forward and adding other candidates as they join the race.
American voters are dissatisfied with their major-party choices, but polls show the third-party alternatives also have little appeal.
RCP Poll Averages
As of late Sunday morning, the RCP averages in 5-way race national polls showed Trump at 41%, Biden at 35%, Kennedy at 13%, West at 2%, and Stein at 2%. Trump is up by 6% and has a 10% advantage if we add the Republican Electoral Vote boost.
The Economy
Last week saw the CPI and PPI reported with no inflation increases in November. Good progress …
In its final 2023 meeting last week the Fed did not raise rates and suggested rate cuts were likely in 2024.
Investors are now betting that the Fed will begin cutting rates in March at the second Fed meeting in 2024.
The US labor market is still strong. The employment report on Friday showed a net increase of 199,000 jobs with the unemployment rate dropping from 3.9% to 3.7%. Most employers still see major labor shortages.
Next year’s economy is hard to predict, but a slowdown is likely. But the chance of a 2024 recession keeps falling. Numerous rate cuts may well keep us out of a recession.
NEW – CANARY IN COAL MINE? -- Unemployment claims last week dropped to a very low 202,000.
Global Political-Economics
Hamas v. Israel
After a “pause” the warfare between the Israel IDF and Hamas resumed. It is likely to rage beyond the end of the year.
The Israeli forces have had success with their attacks. But the humanitarian situation in Gaza is horrible and getting worse. Hamas brought this on their own people with the barbarous Oct. 7 attack on Israel that killed 1200 and saw over 200 abducted.
Biden promised strong support to Israel but is wobbling. He is trying to find a middle-ground acceptable to all the US Democrats, but one does not exist. Tens of millions of young D voters favor Hamas over the Israelis. Older Ds side strongly with Israel as do a large majority of Rs.
Russia v. Ukraine
The trench warfare in Ukraine on almost the entirety of the 600-mile battlefront is still stalemated. Both sides are suffering major losses, and both sides are planning for an extended war well into 2024 unless something surprising occurs.
The money to keep fighting this war is becoming more difficult to find for both sides. The US and Europe are increasingly questioning their ability to continue to finance a “forever war.”
The Ds and Rs in the US Congress are fighting over Ukraine war funding with the Rs insisting that slowing the illegal inflow migrants on the US southern border be included in the bill.
The Senate stayed in session to try to get a compromise deal. The House has adjourned for Christmas but could come back early.
Money and politics may shape the end of this war more than a complete military victory by either side.
COP28 Failed
The annual UN Climate Change Conference [COP28], which has ended, failed in its major goal.
The primary goal of the climate change crowd was for the conference to approve a resolution that stated, “all fossil fuel use should be ended by a date certain.” That failed.
The fall back was to get a resolution that stated, “fossil fuel use should be phased down.” That also failed.
The statement they did get is that “the use of renewable energy should be increased.” That statement effectively has no substance to it. It can be interpreted in numerous ways and also has no penalties for any country that does not abide by it. Environmentalists delude themselves that renewable energy is getting cheaper than fossil fuels. In most cases, renewables are and will be more expensive than fossil fuels.
Liberals are lying to you when they say this statement is a success. It is a meaningless, toothless statement and a failure.
Most of the poor “Global South” nations cannot afford to cut their fossil fuel use and greenhouse emissions. Their political leaders are not stupid and will not do something their nation cannot afford. Even rich nations now find themselves with severe financial limitations.
COP28 failed as will COP29 next year.
The entire climate change scam and shakedown is gradually collapsing. Global warming is occurring but is not an existential threat to humanity.
Coming Soon
The Rise and Fall of Radical Leftist Woke Ideas
Early next year, the TR will begin a long-series looking at the rise and fall of many of the radical woke ideas and trends plaguing our society. It will not look at just the rapidly collapsing concepts like ESG, DEI, mandatory masks, and lockdowns, but also radical trends that took decades to embed in our society. Several examples of the latter are the left-wing control of academia and control of the public schools by left-wing teachers’ unions.
Political Psychiatry Thirty Day Test
If you get upset about a news story, take a deep breath, and ask if it will matter much in 30 days or so. Only rarely will it be important. So, ignore it, and lower your blood pressure.
IN BRIEF
Things To Know/ Things To Remember
The war in the Middle-East, set off by the barbaric Hamas attacks, currently shows the Israelis having successes. The shooting war is likely to continue into next year.
The fallout from this war will change the politics and power in the region in unpredictable ways. The Arab states are supporting the Palestinians with words but not actions.
Joe Biden will not be President for most of 2024. His senility, dementia, corruption, plunging polls, and wobbling over Hamas v. Israel will force him out.
Numerous polls show the R lead over the Ds in the 2024 presidential race growing substantially.
US inflation is decreasing. Interest rates will decrease.
A 2024 US economic “soft-landing” is showing promise.
China’s economic future looks dismal, and it is headed for a severe financial crisis. America’s major enemies – China, Russia, and Iran - all have crippling economic problems.
Tuchfarber Report Goals
My primary goal is to present accurate facts, analyses, and predictions. It is not to push any political agenda. Another goal is to live in neither the Land of Chicken Little, where the sky is always falling, nor in Fantasy Utopia Land, where everything is always going to be fine.
Predictions –Methods & Standards
My method – gather accurate facts, analyze them with no biases, and make accurate predictions.
The Tuchfarber Standard – Make predictions on important issues when I’m over 80% convinced the prediction will be correct.
I made 50 predictions for 2023. 47 are correct, two are wrong, and one will not be counted because the official Chinese statistics needed to test it are no longer reliable.
I’m sure many of you chuckle when I claim my predictions are unbiased. But how could my predictions have been 91% correct since 2017 if I let my biases influence them?
Al Tuchfarber PhD -- Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati
No Lies, Spin, or Fake News Here. The TR is Not About Ideology. It Is About Hard Facts.
December 18, 2023
Holiday Schedule
The Tuchfarber Report will be published over the holidays except there will be no December 25 issue, Christmas Day. The January 1 TR will be an expanded issue.
Merry Christmas & Happy New Year - I wish all of you a very happy Christmas and a great new year!
The 2020s Realignment
The concept “realignment” has a specific meaning for political scientists like me. It denotes one election or a series of elections where the demographic groups that make the coalitions of the D and R parties change in a major way.
The largest US political realignment happened in the 1930 and 1932 elections after the start of the Great Depression. The Republicans dominated American politics from the late 1890s until 1930, but that changed rapidly because of the depression.
With the depression came 25% unemployment. White working class/blue collar voters were devastated economically. Millions of them abandoned the R party for the Ds and FDR. That allowed the D party to dominate American politics for generations.
Another much less noticed realignment started in the early 2000s. It was less obvious because it had several important components, some of which helped the Ds and some the Rs.
Bringing numerous votes to the Ds were:
A rapidly growing Hispanic population and voters who went heavily to the Ds.
The same was true with Asian-Americans.
The Black population did not increase in their percentage of the population, but their turnout percentage rose markedly, again to the benefit of the Ds.
Upscale well-educated white suburban women shifted a significant percentage of their votes to the Ds because of social issues like abortion, gay rights, guns, and religion. A majority of them began voting for D candidates.
From 2000 to 2020 there were also major changes in the demographics of the R party coalition.
Millions of white working-class voters moved to the R party in the 2000s and 2010s. Donald Trump was not the cause of that shift but took full advantage of it to win the 2016 nomination and Presidency.
Also, voters in rural areas and towns shifted strongly to the Rs and away from the Ds.
The cause of both of those shifts to the Rs was that the D party’s leaders increasingly moved their party to the left and toward radical positions that deviated from long-held American values like patriotism, religion and morality, and good jobs for the working class. Both Clinton and Obama essentially abandoned the white working-class and called them “deplorables.”
These major demographic shifts in the two parties occurred in parallel and ironically cancelled each other out. The 2000 election, Gore v. Bush, was a tie. The two parties maintained roughly equal strength during the twenty years that followed.
In the TR I have often cited Ruy Teixeira, a well-respected D strategist. He has written many articles agreeing with the analysis above. He now believes, as do I, that a new realignment is underway which may devastate the D party.
For the same reasons that white working-class voters became R voters, increasing radicalism by the D elites are driving Hispanic, Asian, and Black working-class D voters away and toward the R party. Democratic policies favor the professional elites over the working class and middle-middle-class. The transgender radicalism makes no sense to most voters. The authoritarianism of D governors and mayors during the pandemic was deeply offensive to many. And, for most D leaders, patriotism is passe.
A substantial move of minority working-class voters to the Rs began during the pandemic. That shift showed up in the 2020 elections, 2022 elections, and in polling for 2024. Teixeira and many D and R pollsters and analysts have documented it.
The minority working-class as a group is huge. It is about 30-35 million voters and 20% of all voters. Even a fraction of this group moving to the Rs would be a disaster for the Ds.
Importantly, there is no sign any significant demographic group is now moving to the Ds from the Rs.
We’ll see how big the political impact of this realignment is in the elections on November 5, 2024. [See Teixeira article below for more details.]
Biden Impeachment Investigation
The Republican House has now initiated a formal impeachment investigation of Joe Biden. That gives them many more investigatory powers. But don’t think for a minute that the House will impeach Biden and then the D dominated Senate will have 67 votes to remove him. Biden may leave office, but he will not be removed by the Congress.
The impeachment inquiry will provide a basis for digging up dirt on the Biden family. But it may backfire and turn Biden into a martyr the way Trump has been turned into a martyr.
Politically Interesting
The Supreme Court is actively considering whether to take an important case related to the Jan. 6, 2021, riots. It relates directly to President Trump’s assertion that his actions before and during that event were legitimate based on the powers and duties any President has. Were that to be ruled the case, his prosecution in DC would be dropped or modified. In any case, his scheduled March trial will almost certainly be delayed.
A second case has been taken by the court and applies to many of the Jan. 6 defendants as well as Trump. Federal prosecutors used a seldom if ever used interpretation of federal law to charge most of the Jan. 6 defendants. With their aggressive interpretation they made simply protesting at the Capitol and/or entering it while doing nothing further wrong a felony. The defendants in the cases argue their first amendment right to seek redress from the government protects them from felony charges if he did nothing further wrong. Trump’s case can argue the same for him as a citizen as well as President. Stay tuned …
Using the 14th amendment to keep Trump off the ballot has failed so far. There is little chance that by Election Day Trump will be off any state ballot if he the R nominee.
The President of the University of Pennsylvania has resigned in disgrace after defending the rights of her students to call for genocide against Jews. Heavy pressure is building to the get other University Presidents to resign as they failed to defend against vicious harassment of Jews on their campuses.
This is a very good sign that Americans are finally rejecting the radical left and their anarchic leftism.
Ruy Teixeira and Realignment
As I noted above, Ruy Teixeira is a well-respected D strategist. Below are direct quotes from an article entitled, “The Democratic Coalition Is Falling Apart”, which he published on the free social media site, The Liberal Patriot, just a few days ago.
Teixeira writes … “Let’s face it: the Democratic coalition is in poor shape. It’s springing leaks everywhere – young voters, Hispanic voters, black voters, women voters, working-class voters, moderate, and independent ones. … The Democratic ‘base’ as a whole … is an amalgamation of Democratic-friendly demographic groups: Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, LGBTQ+ community, Gen Z, millennials, unmarried and college women. … Their most pressing issue by far for the country is inflation and the cost of living. Crime, homelessness, and violence [as a set] is second while, interestingly, abortion only ranks eighth. … The big lead the Democrats feel should be theirs is not appearing. … Despite their dire assessment of the threat posed by Trump, moves to compromise on contentious issues that persuadable issues voters care about are few and far between. … It’s hard to understand.”
Teixeira is convinced that unless the Ds move rapidly back to the political center, they will lose badly to the Rs next year and beyond. He believes the realignment I wrote about above is well underway.
Political Handicapping
This section is a handicapping section, not a prediction section.
It is now shaping up that we will have seven or more reasonably well-known candidates running for President next year. Most will have a “political brand” of their own or from the political party they are representing. Included are Trump, the D nominee, Kennedy, West, Stein, probably Manchin on the No Labels ticket, the Libertarian party candidate, and perhaps others.
Based on third-party performance in elections since WWII, these third-party candidates will receive about 15% to 20% in the final voting. The three third-party candidates now in the race are averaging 17% in the polls.
Before the November voting, the polls may show their collective support at 20% or more. History shows third-party numbers stay high through October, then decline by up to a half.
DEMOCRATS
Biden’s senility, dementia, corruption, terrible polls, and the expanding turmoil in his party over Hamas v. Israel will force him to resign. He won’t be the 2024 D nominee. But the D who will be is still unknown.
REPUBLICANS
Trump still has about a 50-point national lead over the field. His leads in IA and NH average 20% to 30%. His supporters are solidly committed to him.
If you take a close look at the national, IA, and NH polls over the last 90 days, 60 days, 30 days, and 14 days you see little change, with Trump maintaining large leads.
Over the last month, Trump gained 2% nationally, gained 5% in IA, and lost 1% in NH.
Over the same period, DeSantis was minus 1% nationally and +3% in IA. He gained 1% in NH.
Haley gained 2% nationally, 2% in IA, and 3% in NH, but still trails Trump by 20% to 30% or higher margins everywhere.
Ramaswamy is flatlining.
Note that the Iowa caucuses are January 15, just four weeks away, and the NH primary follows on January 23. Haley, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy have very little time to catch Trump, especially because the next two weeks will be dominated by the holidays, not politics.
THE GENERAL ELECTIONS HANDICAPPED
President – The odds are over 80% the President inaugurated on January 20, 2025, will be a Republican. Reasons – It is virtually impossible for the inflation, immigration, and crime problems to be solved by the Biden and Harris administration before November 2024. A weak economy in 2024 is likely. The D Party is fracturing over the Gaza war. The realignment underway also seriously threatens all potential D candidates.
Senate – There is close to a 100% chance the Rs will have a Senate majority in January 2025. Reason – liberal and conservative analysts agree, the eight Senate seats most vulnerable next year are all D seats. Just two seats need to flip to have a R majority.
House – In 2025, the Republicans are likely to have a 35-seat or larger majority. Reasons: Inflation is the ultimate “kitchen table” issue. And the 2024 economy is unlikely to be strong. Over one-half of voters will be struggling month-to-month to pay their bills all through 2024.
I’ll update and explain these odds as the facts change.
Speculation – What Does the Political Lay of the Land Look Like for the 2024 Presidential Race?
The thoughts presented here are not predictions. They are a mix of hard facts, what the history of campaigns has taught us, and informed speculation based on the current actions of the Presidential candidates and campaigns. The current poll numbers are also factored in.
REPUBLICAN NOMINEE -- probably Trump, otherwise Haley. DeSantis and Ramaswamy are essentially flatlining, while Haley is gaining a little on Trump but too slowly.
DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE – it will not be Biden. But the D strategy is still a mystery. Filing deadlines for the 15 states with primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday, March 5, occurred last week and no major D candidate filed other than Biden.
By Friday Jan. 5, 2024, the filing deadlines for state Presidential primaries and caucuses will have passed in about 30 states. It does not appear that we will have a contested D primary and caucus battle for the D nomination. It may be the D nominee is selected at their convention in Chicago in mid-August.
NEXT PRESIDENT – Very likely to be Trump or Haley. Why?
Terrible and worsening Biden and Harris poll numbers.
The many serious Biden-Harris administration problems which cannot be solved before Nov. 5, 2024.
The Gaza war fracturing the D Party.
Working-class Hispanics, Asians, and Blacks are drifting away from the D Party because of its radicalism.
These negatives will harm any D Presidential nominee.
Do not just accept my analysis. CHECK MY FACTS, LOGIC, AND ANALYSES!
Polls
I will be reporting mostly on the 5-way race Presidential polls going forward and adding other candidates as they join the race.
American voters are dissatisfied with their major-party choices, but polls show the third-party alternatives also have little appeal.
RCP Poll Averages
As of late Sunday morning, the RCP averages in 5-way race national polls showed Trump at 41%, Biden at 35%, Kennedy at 13%, West at 2%, and Stein at 2%. Trump is up by 6% and has a 10% advantage if we add the Republican Electoral Vote boost.
The Economy
Last week saw the CPI and PPI reported with no inflation increases in November. Good progress …
In its final 2023 meeting last week the Fed did not raise rates and suggested rate cuts were likely in 2024.
Investors are now betting that the Fed will begin cutting rates in March at the second Fed meeting in 2024.
The US labor market is still strong. The employment report on Friday showed a net increase of 199,000 jobs with the unemployment rate dropping from 3.9% to 3.7%. Most employers still see major labor shortages.
Next year’s economy is hard to predict, but a slowdown is likely. But the chance of a 2024 recession keeps falling. Numerous rate cuts may well keep us out of a recession.
NEW – CANARY IN COAL MINE? -- Unemployment claims last week dropped to a very low 202,000.
Global Political-Economics
Hamas v. Israel
After a “pause” the warfare between the Israel IDF and Hamas resumed. It is likely to rage beyond the end of the year.
The Israeli forces have had success with their attacks. But the humanitarian situation in Gaza is horrible and getting worse. Hamas brought this on their own people with the barbarous Oct. 7 attack on Israel that killed 1200 and saw over 200 abducted.
Biden promised strong support to Israel but is wobbling. He is trying to find a middle-ground acceptable to all the US Democrats, but one does not exist. Tens of millions of young D voters favor Hamas over the Israelis. Older Ds side strongly with Israel as do a large majority of Rs.
Russia v. Ukraine
The trench warfare in Ukraine on almost the entirety of the 600-mile battlefront is still stalemated. Both sides are suffering major losses, and both sides are planning for an extended war well into 2024 unless something surprising occurs.
The money to keep fighting this war is becoming more difficult to find for both sides. The US and Europe are increasingly questioning their ability to continue to finance a “forever war.”
The Ds and Rs in the US Congress are fighting over Ukraine war funding with the Rs insisting that slowing the illegal inflow migrants on the US southern border be included in the bill.
The Senate stayed in session to try to get a compromise deal. The House has adjourned for Christmas but could come back early.
Money and politics may shape the end of this war more than a complete military victory by either side.
COP28 Failed
The annual UN Climate Change Conference [COP28], which has ended, failed in its major goal.
The primary goal of the climate change crowd was for the conference to approve a resolution that stated, “all fossil fuel use should be ended by a date certain.” That failed.
The fall back was to get a resolution that stated, “fossil fuel use should be phased down.” That also failed.
The statement they did get is that “the use of renewable energy should be increased.” That statement effectively has no substance to it. It can be interpreted in numerous ways and also has no penalties for any country that does not abide by it. Environmentalists delude themselves that renewable energy is getting cheaper than fossil fuels. In most cases, renewables are and will be more expensive than fossil fuels.
Liberals are lying to you when they say this statement is a success. It is a meaningless, toothless statement and a failure.
Most of the poor “Global South” nations cannot afford to cut their fossil fuel use and greenhouse emissions. Their political leaders are not stupid and will not do something their nation cannot afford. Even rich nations now find themselves with severe financial limitations.
COP28 failed as will COP29 next year.
The entire climate change scam and shakedown is gradually collapsing. Global warming is occurring but is not an existential threat to humanity.
Coming Soon
The Rise and Fall of Radical Leftist Woke Ideas
Early next year, the TR will begin a long-series looking at the rise and fall of many of the radical woke ideas and trends plaguing our society. It will not look at just the rapidly collapsing concepts like ESG, DEI, mandatory masks, and lockdowns, but also radical trends that took decades to embed in our society. Several examples of the latter are the left-wing control of academia and control of the public schools by left-wing teachers’ unions.
Political Psychiatry Thirty Day Test
If you get upset about a news story, take a deep breath, and ask if it will matter much in 30 days or so. Only rarely will it be important. So, ignore it, and lower your blood pressure.
IN BRIEF
Things To Know/ Things To Remember
The war in the Middle-East, set off by the barbaric Hamas attacks, currently shows the Israelis having successes. The shooting war is likely to continue into next year.
The fallout from this war will change the politics and power in the region in unpredictable ways. The Arab states are supporting the Palestinians with words but not actions.
Joe Biden will not be President for most of 2024. His senility, dementia, corruption, plunging polls, and wobbling over Hamas v. Israel will force him out.
Numerous polls show the R lead over the Ds in the 2024 presidential race growing substantially.
US inflation is decreasing. Interest rates will decrease.
A 2024 US economic “soft-landing” is showing promise.
China’s economic future looks dismal, and it is headed for a severe financial crisis. America’s major enemies – China, Russia, and Iran - all have crippling economic problems.
Tuchfarber Report Goals
My primary goal is to present accurate facts, analyses, and predictions. It is not to push any political agenda. Another goal is to live in neither the Land of Chicken Little, where the sky is always falling, nor in Fantasy Utopia Land, where everything is always going to be fine.
Predictions –Methods & Standards
My method – gather accurate facts, analyze them with no biases, and make accurate predictions.
The Tuchfarber Standard – Make predictions on important issues when I’m over 80% convinced the prediction will be correct.
I made 50 predictions for 2023. 47 are correct, two are wrong, and one will not be counted because the official Chinese statistics needed to test it are no longer reliable.
I’m sure many of you chuckle when I claim my predictions are unbiased. But how could my predictions have been 91% correct since 2017 if I let my biases influence them?
Al Tuchfarber PhD -- Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati