Post by Blitz on Nov 7, 2023 6:43:47 GMT -5
Tuchfarber Report
11/6/23
tuchfarberreport.com/
Echoes of 1968
For those of you old enough to remember, the 2024 election year is shaping up eerily like the 1968 election year. The echoes are:
- An unpopular D President, Lyndon Johnson.
- A divided Democratic Party over a war — Vietnam.
- A culture war of radicalism v. traditional America.
- A D President who does not run for re-election.
- A third-party candidate, George Wallace, a segregationist Democrat who wins five states.
Chaos in the streets.
Stay tuned…
Of Political Interest
The R debate on Wednesday will have fewer viewers than the 2nd debate and is unlikely to change the polls much.
A key filing deadline passed last Friday for the Presidential primaries in NH in January. Numerous Rs filed. Biden did not, nor did Harris. The mystery of the 2024 D ticket continues. The next big filing deadline, this Thursday, is for the D’s key Feb. 3 SC primary. Might one or more radical Ds jump into the race?
Legendary D strategist James Carville is now publicly saying that Biden cannot beat Trump. When he talks to D leaders, they do not disagree, but tell him to shut up.
The Democrats believe that Trump will be easy to defeat in November 2024. My analysis is the exact opposite, with growing evidence piling up to support that analysis. National and state polls show Biden, or any D, likely to lose.
Trump now leads Biden by 0.6% in the RCP Polling average, but this head-to-head test is no longer very meaningful as the race will end up with many candidates winning 1% or more. In the 4-way race we now have with Trump, Biden, Kennedy, and West the RCP average has Trump up by 3.0%.
Whoever the D candidate is, or the R candidate is, the D will have to win the popular vote by over 4 points to get to the required 270 Electoral Votes. That means the Ds are now 7 points down to the Rs in the 4-way Presidential race.
We are a full year away from next year’s elections. Political realities are changing rapidly. For example, few expected an existential war between Hamas and Israel. The world is in a difficult scary period of change that will keep us wondering.
Trump is running as though he is the incumbent President, which is a sound strategy and is working.
Support for Hamas among radical Ds is exploding and threatening party unity. In this environment a radical D threat to Biden is a very real possibility.
There are very important state legislative elections in VA tomorrow. If either party is notably successful there, it will be an important signal for 2024. Also, I’ll be looking to see if the Gaza War affects D or R turnout across the country.
R candidate Cameron is now tied with incumbent KY D Governor Beshear. Cameron was well down weeks ago.
The long-awaited book, “Where Have All the Democrats Gone?” by two D strategists comes out tomorrow. I’ll report its conclusions next week.
Keep a close watch on how much the Hamas-Israel War is tearing apart the Democratic Party. It is getting ugly.
Political Handicapping
This section is a handicapping section, not a prediction section, except where noted.
It is now shaping up that we will have over six reasonably well-known candidates running for President next year. Most will have a “political brand” of their own or from the political party they are representing. Included are:
- The R nominee – highly likely to be Trump or Haley.
- The D nominee – Harris or someone else, but not Biden.
- A Green Party nominee – unknown.
- A Libertarian Party candidate – unknown.
- Black radical Cornell West, running as an independent.
- The bipartisan No Labels Party nominee – likely to be ex-Democrat Joe Manchin or a moderate Republican.
- Running as an independent, environmentalist-isolationist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- Other third-party candidates with a “brand” will jump in.
- This cluster of third-party candidates will get a lot of coverage from the media and voters because the D and R parties are so disliked, but none of the third-party candidates is likely to win even a single state. The last third-party candidate to win a state was segregationist candidate George Wallace in 1968.
The third-party candidates, as a group, will receive about 15 to 20% in the end, but the polls over the next year will show their collective support at more than 30%. The third-party numbers will stay quite high until very late October next year.
DEMOCRATS
Biden’s age, dementia, corruption, and Gaza war will force him out. He will not be the 2024 D nominee.
REPUBLICANS
- Ex-President Trump now has a 45-point lead over the field. Almost all his supporters are solidly committed to him.
- Individual polls report different results, but the averages of the RCP polls have changed little over the last 30 days. All have Trump with huge leads.
- The only candidate making any progress against Trump is Nikki Haley, but she gained ground only in NH. She is up to 14% of the NH vote but still trails Trump there by 31%.
THE GENERAL ELECTIONS HANDICAPPED
President – The odds are over 80% the President inaugurated on January 20, 2024, will be a Republican. Reason – It is virtually impossible for the inflation, immigration, and crime problems to be solved by the Biden and Harris before November 2024. A weak economy in 2024 is also likely. If the Ds nominate someone other than Biden or Harris, that Democrat will still be faced with the major policy failures of the Biden-Harris administration. Also, the D Party is fracturing on radical v. classic liberal lines over the Gaza war and support for Hamas v. Israel.
Senate – There is a 99% chance the Rs will have a Senate majority in January 2025. That majority could range from 53R-47D to 59R-41D. Reason – the eight Senate candidates most vulnerable next year are all Ds.
House – In 2025, the Republicans are likely to have a 35-seat or larger majority. Reasons: Inflation is the ultimate “kitchen table” issue, and neither the administration nor the Fed know how to fix it and, at the same time, keep the US out of a recession. As James Carville taught us while he helped Bill Clinton win in 1992 — “It’s the economy stupid.” The crime and border issues will harm any D candidate.
If there is a 2024 recession the R’s will win in a landslide as in 2008 when Obama won because of the Great Recession.
I will update and explain these odds as the facts change and the facts are changing very rapidly.
But consider the problems the Ds already have in 2024.
A year from now the humanitarian immigration/border crisis will be worse. Twenty miles of wall and minor policy changes with fix little. The crime, terrorism fears, sex-trafficking, drug cartels, and the humanitarian nightmare will be worse, because two million more illegals will have entered the US. Fear of Islamic terrorists getting into the US will add to voters’ fears about Biden’s open-border.
The Gaza war is fracturing Democratic unity.
Also disastrous for the Ds is that the problems in the Democratic “sanctuary cities” will be far worse next year. Big city Democratic voters are already furious with the Biden and Harris and their own Democratic mayors. Black and Hispanic voters in major Democratic “sanctuary cities” will be more incensed a year from now because illegal aliens will be taking more-and-more of their jobs and housing.
Over 50% of American households will continue to struggle to make ends meet. They never caught up after the huge 2022 inflation spike. They will not catch up in 2024 as the year will be a year of slow growth or a mild recession.
The crime waves in the D cities will worsen. History shows it takes decades to end a big-city crime wave.
There are many problems the Ds have and problems the Rs have heading into 2024. I’ll analyze both the D and R weaknesses in depth in future TRs. I’ll write more about the R problems when their nominee becomes obvious.
Do not just accept my analysis. CHECK MY FACTS, LOGIC, AND ANALYSES!
Polls
Remember that polls do not predict the future. They are just a snapshot at a particular point in time. Regardless of what current polls show, much will change before next year’s elections.
Harris X/Messenger Poll
They reported:
Trump v. Biden – Trump +2
Trump v. Biden v. Kennedy v. West – Trump +6 over Biden
NYT/Siena College Polls
Siena College polled six crucial swing [purple] states from Oct.22 to Nov.3. Their findings:
AZ – Trump 49, Biden 44
GA – Trump 49, Biden 43
PA – Trump 48, Biden 44
MI – Trump 48, Biden 43
NV – Trump 52, Biden 45
WI – Biden 47, Trump 45
Over the last two weeks or so, three polling groups known to be accurate with state polls — Siena, Bloomberg, and Emerson College – have polled the major swing states. In each case, Trump was ahead of Biden in almost all the states polled. The Democratic Party and potential D candidates have major decisions to make before this week’s SC filing deadline.
The Economy
NEW — The US is at full-employment and added 150,000 jobs in Oct. The unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 3.9%.
The initial estimate of 3rdQ GDP growth is 4.9%. That is likely to slow down quite a bit in the 4thQ and next year.
NEW — National job-openings were reported as unchanged in October at 9.5 million.
Next year’s economy will be hard to predict until we get the late 2023 stats and early 2024 stats and see what the Fed does about rates at their November and December meetings. I rate the chance of a 2024 recession at 50-50.
NEW — The S&P500 is back up well over 10% in 2024 to date after a very strong week. The Fed plans to pause raising rates for a while, and Treasury rates plunged.
NEW – CANARY IN COAL MINE? — Unemployment claims stayed low last week at 217,000. Among employees let go, most are quickly finding new jobs.
NEW — The UAW has tentative contracts with the Big Three. They are likely to be approved by the workers.
Global Political-Economics
Hamas v. Israel
Hamas launched a barbaric attack on Israel killing thousands and abducting hundreds. The savagery and inhumanity of the Hamas attacks were astounding. Israel responded massively.
Israel will also attack Hezbollah in Lebanon if Hezbollah launches a major attack on Israel. So far, the Hezbollah attacks have been limited.
Thankfully the war has not spread in a major way. Perhaps it will stay that way. We can hope.
One reason for the lack of a spreading is that the Israelis brought their military up to over 500,000 troops by calling up over 300,00 reserves. Also, the Israeli forces are having success with their air and ground attacks.
Biden promised strong support to Israel but is now wobbling. Tens of millions of D voters favor Hamas v. the Israelis, and the D party radicals v. liberals split is growing over this war. For example, VP Harris’ step-daughter is fund-raising for Hamas and huge anti-Israel protests are widespread and growing.
Former President Obama, who actually runs the White House and the Democratic Party, is also dithering on the Gaza war. Based on his previous positions it is certain he is pro Hamas. But coming out strongly that way now will tear the Democratic Party apart. He will continue to try to have it both ways but will fail.
Calls for a ceasefire have greatly increased but it is unlikely the Israelis will accept any truce longer than a few hours.
China & US Enemies Watch
China is in decline relative to the US; it is not ascendant!
China’s top priority by far is maintaining Communist Party control of China. Any war with Taiwan and the US will seriously threaten the fall of the Chinese regime. China will not risk it.
Russia is in serious decline, only partially because of the war.
Iran is also in serious decline and things will get far worse.
The War in Ukraine
The ground war is currently in stalemate. Ukraine has some interesting options, but no one knows if they will work. Putin has no way of winning much more of Ukraine’s land than he now holds.
Political Psychiatry Thirty Day Test
If you get upset about a news story, take a deep breath, and ask if it will matter much in 30 days or so. Only rarely will it be important. So, ignore it, and lower your blood pressure.
IN BRIEF
Things to Know / Things to Remember
The war in the Middle-East, set off by the barbaric Hamas attacks, currently shows the Israelis having major successes. The fallout from this war will change the politics and power in the region in unpredictable ways.
Joe Biden will not be President next year for most or all of 2024. His dementia and corruption and now the split in his party over the Gaza war will force him to resign.
A 2024 US recession has a 50-50 chance of occurring.
China’s economic future looks dismal, and it is headed for a severe economic/financial crisis. America’s enemies – China, Russia, and Iran – are all suffering crippling economic problems.
Tuchfarber Report Goals
My primary goal is to present accurate facts, analyses, and predictions. It is not to push any political agenda.
Another goal is to live in neither the Land of Chicken Little, where the sky is always falling, nor in Fantasy Utopia Land, where everything is always going to be fine.
Predictions –Methods & Standards
My method – gather accurate facts, analyze them with no biases, and make accurate predictions.
The Tuchfarber Standard – Make predictions on important issues when I’m over 80% convinced the prediction will be correct.
I made 50 official predictions for 2023. So far, 47 are correct, two are very wobbly, and one is wrong.
I’m sure many of you chuckle when I claim my predictions are unbiased. But how could my predictions have been 91% correct since 2017 if I let biases or hopes to influence them?
Al Tuchfarber PhD — Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati
TuchfarberReport.com
Dr. Tuchfarber founded the Ohio Poll, one of the country’s most accurate, while directing the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati for four decades. He also founded the Institute for Health Policy at the UC Medical Center. He is an engaging, informative, and dynamic speaker. Al has published well over 100 publications about politics, political-economics, society, and research methods.
Echoes of 1968
For those of you old enough to remember, the 2024 election year is shaping up eerily like the 1968 election year. The echoes are:
An unpopular D President, Lyndon Johnson.
A divided Democratic Party over a war — Vietnam.
A culture war of radicalism v. traditional America.
A D President who does not run for re-election.
A third-party candidate, George Wallace, a segregationist Democrat who wins five states.
Chaos in the streets.
Stay tuned…
Of Political Interest
The R debate on Wednesday will have fewer viewers than the 2nd debate and is unlikely to change the polls much.
A key filing deadline passed last Friday for the Presidential primaries in NH in January. Numerous Rs filed. Biden did not, nor did Harris. The mystery of the 2024 D ticket continues. The next big filing deadline, this Thursday, is for the D’s key Feb. 3 SC primary. Might one or more radical Ds jump into the race?
Legendary D strategist James Carville is now publicly saying that Biden cannot beat Trump. When he talks to D leaders, they do not disagree, but tell him to shut up.
The Democrats believe that Trump will be easy to defeat in November 2024. My analysis is the exact opposite, with growing evidence piling up to support that analysis. National and state polls show Biden, or any D, likely to lose.
Trump now leads Biden by 0.6% in the RCP Polling average, but this head-to-head test is no longer very meaningful as the race will end up with many candidates winning 1% or more. In the 4-way race we now have with Trump, Biden, Kennedy, and West the RCP average has Trump up by 3.0%.
Whoever the D candidate is, or the R candidate is, the D will have to win the popular vote by over 4 points to get to the required 270 Electoral Votes. That means the Ds are now 7 points down to the Rs in the 4-way Presidential race.
We are a full year away from next year’s elections. Political realities are changing rapidly. For example, few expected an existential war between Hamas and Israel. The world is in a difficult scary period of change that will keep us wondering.
Trump is running as though he is the incumbent President, which is a sound strategy and is working.
Support for Hamas among radical Ds is exploding and threatening party unity. In this environment a radical D threat to Biden is a very real possibility.
There are very important state legislative elections in VA tomorrow. If either party is notably successful there, it will be an important signal for 2024. Also, I’ll be looking to see if the Gaza War affects D or R turnout across the country.
R candidate Cameron is now tied with incumbent KY D Governor Beshear. Cameron was well down weeks ago.
The long-awaited book, “Where Have All the Democrats Gone?” by two D strategists comes out tomorrow. I’ll report its conclusions next week.
Keep a close watch on how much the Hamas-Israel War is tearing apart the Democratic Party. It is getting ugly.
Political Handicapping
This section is a handicapping section, not a prediction section, except where noted.
It is now shaping up that we will have over six reasonably well-known candidates running for President next year. Most will have a “political brand” of their own or from the political party they are representing. Included are:
- The R nominee – highly likely to be Trump or Haley.
= The D nominee – Harris or someone else, but not Biden.
= A Green Party nominee – unknown.
- A Libertarian Party candidate – unknown.
- Black radical Cornell West, running as an independent.
- The bipartisan No Labels Party nominee – likely to be ex-Democrat Joe Manchin or a moderate Republican.
- Running as an independent, environmentalist-isolationist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- Other third-party candidates with a “brand” will jump in.
- This cluster of third-party candidates will get a lot of coverage from the media and voters because the D and R parties are so disliked, but none of the third-party candidates is likely to win even a single state. The last third-party candidate to win a state was segregationist candidate George Wallace in 1968.
The third-party candidates, as a group, will receive about 15 to 20% in the end, but the polls over the next year will show their collective support at more than 30%. The third-party numbers will stay quite high until very late October next year.
DEMOCRATS
Biden’s age, dementia, corruption, and Gaza war will force him out. He will not be the 2024 D nominee.
REPUBLICANS
- Ex-President Trump now has a 45-point lead over the field. Almost all his supporters are solidly committed to him.
- Individual polls report different results, but the averages of the RCP polls have changed little over the last 30 days. All have Trump with huge leads.
- The only candidate making any progress against Trump is Nikki Haley, but she gained ground only in NH. She is up to 14% of the NH vote but still trails Trump there by 31%.
THE GENERAL ELECTIONS HANDICAPPED
President – The odds are over 80% the President inaugurated on January 20, 2024, will be a Republican. Reason – It is virtually impossible for the inflation, immigration, and crime problems to be solved by the Biden and Harris before November 2024. A weak economy in 2024 is also likely. If the Ds nominate someone other than Biden or Harris, that Democrat will still be faced with the major policy failures of the Biden-Harris administration. Also, the D Party is fracturing on radical v. classic liberal lines over the Gaza war and support for Hamas v. Israel.
Senate – There is a 99% chance the Rs will have a Senate majority in January 2025. That majority could range from 53R-47D to 59R-41D. Reason – the eight Senate candidates most vulnerable next year are all Ds.
House – In 2025, the Republicans are likely to have a 35-seat or larger majority. Reasons: Inflation is the ultimate “kitchen table” issue, and neither the administration nor the Fed know how to fix it and, at the same time, keep the US out of a recession. As James Carville taught us while he helped Bill Clinton win in 1992 — “It’s the economy stupid.” The crime and border issues will harm any D candidate.
If there is a 2024 recession the R’s will win in a landslide as in 2008 when Obama won because of the Great Recession. I will update and explain these odds as the facts change and the facts are changing very rapidly. But consider the problems the Ds already have in 2024.
A year from now the humanitarian immigration/border crisis will be worse. Twenty miles of wall and minor policy changes with fix little. The crime, terrorism fears, sex-trafficking, drug cartels, and the humanitarian nightmare will be worse, because two million more illegals will have entered the US. Fear of Islamic terrorists getting into the US will add to voters’ fears about Biden’s open-border.
The Gaza war is fracturing Democratic unity.
Also disastrous for the Ds is that the problems in the Democratic “sanctuary cities” will be far worse next year. Big city Democratic voters are already furious with the Biden and Harris and their own Democratic mayors. Black and Hispanic voters in major Democratic “sanctuary cities” will be more incensed a year from now because illegal aliens will be taking more-and-more of their jobs and housing.
Over 50% of American households will continue to struggle to make ends meet. They never caught up after the huge 2022 inflation spike. They will not catch up in 2024 as the year will be a year of slow growth or a mild recession.
The crime waves in the D cities will worsen. History shows it takes decades to end a big-city crime wave.
There are many problems the Ds have and problems the Rs have heading into 2024. I’ll analyze both the D and R weaknesses in depth in future TRs. I’ll write more about the R problems when their nominee becomes obvious.
Do not just accept my analysis. CHECK MY FACTS, LOGIC, AND ANALYSES!
Polls
Remember that polls do not predict the future. They are just a snapshot at a particular point in time. Regardless of what current polls show, much will change before next year’s elections.
Harris X/Messenger Poll - They reported:
Trump v. Biden – Trump +2
Trump v. Biden v. Kennedy v. West – Trump +6 over Biden
NYT/Siena College Polls - Siena College polled six crucial swing [purple] states from Oct.22 to Nov.3.
Their findings:
AZ – Trump 49, Biden 44
GA – Trump 49, Biden 43
PA – Trump 48, Biden 44
MI – Trump 48, Biden 43
NV – Trump 52, Biden 45
WI – Biden 47, Trump 45
Over the last two weeks or so, three polling groups known to be accurate with state polls — Siena, Bloomberg, and Emerson College – have polled the major swing states. In each case, Trump was ahead of Biden in almost all the states polled. The Democratic Party and potential D candidates have major decisions to make before this week’s SC filing deadline.
The Economy
NEW — The US is at full-employment and added 150,000 jobs in Oct. The unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 3.9%. The initial estimate of 3rdQ GDP growth is 4.9%. That is likely to slow down quite a bit in the 4thQ and next year.
NEW — National job-openings were reported as unchanged in October at 9.5 million.
Next year’s economy will be hard to predict until we get the late 2023 stats and early 2024 stats and see what the Fed does about rates at their November and December meetings. I rate the chance of a 2024 recession at 50-50.
NEW — The S&P500 is back up well over 10% in 2024 to date after a very strong week. The Fed plans to pause raising rates for a while, and Treasury rates plunged.
NEW – CANARY IN COAL MINE? — Unemployment claims stayed low last week at 217,000. Among employees let go, most are quickly finding new jobs.
NEW — The UAW has tentative contracts with the Big Three. They are likely to be approved by the workers.
Global Political-Economics
Hamas v. Israel
Hamas launched a barbaric attack on Israel killing thousands and abducting hundreds. The savagery and inhumanity of the Hamas attacks were astounding. Israel responded massively.
Israel will also attack Hezbollah in Lebanon if Hezbollah launches a major attack on Israel. So far, the Hezbollah attacks have been limited.
Thankfully the war has not spread in a major way. Perhaps it will stay that way. We can hope.
One reason for the lack of a spreading is that the Israelis brought their military up to over 500,000 troops by calling up over 300,00 reserves. Also, the Israeli forces are having success with their air and ground attacks.
Biden promised strong support to Israel but is now wobbling. Tens of millions of D voters favor Hamas v. the Israelis, and the D party radicals v. liberals split is growing over this war. For example, VP Harris’ step-daughter is fund-raising for Hamas and huge anti-Israel protests are widespread and growing.
Former President Obama, who actually runs the White House and the Democratic Party, is also dithering on the Gaza war. Based on his previous positions it is certain he is pro Hamas. But coming out strongly that way now will tear the Democratic Party apart. He will continue to try to have it both ways but will fail.
Calls for a ceasefire have greatly increased but it is unlikely the Israelis will accept any truce longer than a few hours.
China & US Enemies Watch
China is in decline relative to the US; it is not ascendant!
China’s top priority by far is maintaining Communist Party control of China. Any war with Taiwan and the US will seriously threaten the fall of the Chinese regime. China will not risk it.
Russia is in serious decline, only partially because of the war.
Iran is also in serious decline and things will get far worse.
The War in Ukraine
The ground war is currently in stalemate. Ukraine has some interesting options, but no one knows if they will work. Putin has no way of winning much more of Ukraine’s land than he now holds.
Political Psychiatry Thirty Day Test
If you get upset about a news story, take a deep breath, and ask if it will matter much in 30 days or so. Only rarely will it be important. So, ignore it, and lower your blood pressure.
IN BRIEF
Things to Know / Things to Remember
The war in the Middle-East, set off by the barbaric Hamas attacks, currently shows the Israelis having major successes. The fallout from this war will change the politics and power in the region in unpredictable ways.
Joe Biden will not be President next year for most or all of 2024. His dementia and corruption and now the split in his party over the Gaza war will force him to resign.
A 2024 US recession has a 50-50 chance of occurring.
China’s economic future looks dismal, and it is headed for a severe economic/financial crisis. America’s enemies – China, Russia, and Iran – are all suffering crippling economic problems.
Tuchfarber Report Goals - My primary goal is to present accurate facts, analyses, and predictions. It is not to push any political agenda.
Another goal is to live in neither the Land of Chicken Little, where the sky is always falling, nor in Fantasy Utopia Land, where everything is always going to be fine.
Predictions –Methods & Standards
My method – gather accurate facts, analyze them with no biases, and make accurate predictions.
The Tuchfarber Standard – Make predictions on important issues when I’m over 80% convinced the prediction will be correct.
I made 50 official predictions for 2023. So far, 47 are correct, two are very wobbly, and one is wrong.
I’m sure many of you chuckle when I claim my predictions are unbiased. But how could my predictions have been 91% correct since 2017 if I let biases or hopes to influence them?
Al Tuchfarber PhD — Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati
Al.Tuchfarber@gmail.com
Tuchfarber Political-Economics LLC
TuchfarberReport.com
Dr. Tuchfarber founded the Ohio Poll, one of the country’s most accurate, while directing the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati for four decades. He also founded the Institute for Health Policy at the UC Medical Center. He is an engaging, informative, and dynamic speaker. Al has published well over 100 publications about politics, political-economics, society, and research methods.
11/6/23
tuchfarberreport.com/
Echoes of 1968
For those of you old enough to remember, the 2024 election year is shaping up eerily like the 1968 election year. The echoes are:
- An unpopular D President, Lyndon Johnson.
- A divided Democratic Party over a war — Vietnam.
- A culture war of radicalism v. traditional America.
- A D President who does not run for re-election.
- A third-party candidate, George Wallace, a segregationist Democrat who wins five states.
Chaos in the streets.
Stay tuned…
Of Political Interest
The R debate on Wednesday will have fewer viewers than the 2nd debate and is unlikely to change the polls much.
A key filing deadline passed last Friday for the Presidential primaries in NH in January. Numerous Rs filed. Biden did not, nor did Harris. The mystery of the 2024 D ticket continues. The next big filing deadline, this Thursday, is for the D’s key Feb. 3 SC primary. Might one or more radical Ds jump into the race?
Legendary D strategist James Carville is now publicly saying that Biden cannot beat Trump. When he talks to D leaders, they do not disagree, but tell him to shut up.
The Democrats believe that Trump will be easy to defeat in November 2024. My analysis is the exact opposite, with growing evidence piling up to support that analysis. National and state polls show Biden, or any D, likely to lose.
Trump now leads Biden by 0.6% in the RCP Polling average, but this head-to-head test is no longer very meaningful as the race will end up with many candidates winning 1% or more. In the 4-way race we now have with Trump, Biden, Kennedy, and West the RCP average has Trump up by 3.0%.
Whoever the D candidate is, or the R candidate is, the D will have to win the popular vote by over 4 points to get to the required 270 Electoral Votes. That means the Ds are now 7 points down to the Rs in the 4-way Presidential race.
We are a full year away from next year’s elections. Political realities are changing rapidly. For example, few expected an existential war between Hamas and Israel. The world is in a difficult scary period of change that will keep us wondering.
Trump is running as though he is the incumbent President, which is a sound strategy and is working.
Support for Hamas among radical Ds is exploding and threatening party unity. In this environment a radical D threat to Biden is a very real possibility.
There are very important state legislative elections in VA tomorrow. If either party is notably successful there, it will be an important signal for 2024. Also, I’ll be looking to see if the Gaza War affects D or R turnout across the country.
R candidate Cameron is now tied with incumbent KY D Governor Beshear. Cameron was well down weeks ago.
The long-awaited book, “Where Have All the Democrats Gone?” by two D strategists comes out tomorrow. I’ll report its conclusions next week.
Keep a close watch on how much the Hamas-Israel War is tearing apart the Democratic Party. It is getting ugly.
Political Handicapping
This section is a handicapping section, not a prediction section, except where noted.
It is now shaping up that we will have over six reasonably well-known candidates running for President next year. Most will have a “political brand” of their own or from the political party they are representing. Included are:
- The R nominee – highly likely to be Trump or Haley.
- The D nominee – Harris or someone else, but not Biden.
- A Green Party nominee – unknown.
- A Libertarian Party candidate – unknown.
- Black radical Cornell West, running as an independent.
- The bipartisan No Labels Party nominee – likely to be ex-Democrat Joe Manchin or a moderate Republican.
- Running as an independent, environmentalist-isolationist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- Other third-party candidates with a “brand” will jump in.
- This cluster of third-party candidates will get a lot of coverage from the media and voters because the D and R parties are so disliked, but none of the third-party candidates is likely to win even a single state. The last third-party candidate to win a state was segregationist candidate George Wallace in 1968.
The third-party candidates, as a group, will receive about 15 to 20% in the end, but the polls over the next year will show their collective support at more than 30%. The third-party numbers will stay quite high until very late October next year.
DEMOCRATS
Biden’s age, dementia, corruption, and Gaza war will force him out. He will not be the 2024 D nominee.
REPUBLICANS
- Ex-President Trump now has a 45-point lead over the field. Almost all his supporters are solidly committed to him.
- Individual polls report different results, but the averages of the RCP polls have changed little over the last 30 days. All have Trump with huge leads.
- The only candidate making any progress against Trump is Nikki Haley, but she gained ground only in NH. She is up to 14% of the NH vote but still trails Trump there by 31%.
THE GENERAL ELECTIONS HANDICAPPED
President – The odds are over 80% the President inaugurated on January 20, 2024, will be a Republican. Reason – It is virtually impossible for the inflation, immigration, and crime problems to be solved by the Biden and Harris before November 2024. A weak economy in 2024 is also likely. If the Ds nominate someone other than Biden or Harris, that Democrat will still be faced with the major policy failures of the Biden-Harris administration. Also, the D Party is fracturing on radical v. classic liberal lines over the Gaza war and support for Hamas v. Israel.
Senate – There is a 99% chance the Rs will have a Senate majority in January 2025. That majority could range from 53R-47D to 59R-41D. Reason – the eight Senate candidates most vulnerable next year are all Ds.
House – In 2025, the Republicans are likely to have a 35-seat or larger majority. Reasons: Inflation is the ultimate “kitchen table” issue, and neither the administration nor the Fed know how to fix it and, at the same time, keep the US out of a recession. As James Carville taught us while he helped Bill Clinton win in 1992 — “It’s the economy stupid.” The crime and border issues will harm any D candidate.
If there is a 2024 recession the R’s will win in a landslide as in 2008 when Obama won because of the Great Recession.
I will update and explain these odds as the facts change and the facts are changing very rapidly.
But consider the problems the Ds already have in 2024.
A year from now the humanitarian immigration/border crisis will be worse. Twenty miles of wall and minor policy changes with fix little. The crime, terrorism fears, sex-trafficking, drug cartels, and the humanitarian nightmare will be worse, because two million more illegals will have entered the US. Fear of Islamic terrorists getting into the US will add to voters’ fears about Biden’s open-border.
The Gaza war is fracturing Democratic unity.
Also disastrous for the Ds is that the problems in the Democratic “sanctuary cities” will be far worse next year. Big city Democratic voters are already furious with the Biden and Harris and their own Democratic mayors. Black and Hispanic voters in major Democratic “sanctuary cities” will be more incensed a year from now because illegal aliens will be taking more-and-more of their jobs and housing.
Over 50% of American households will continue to struggle to make ends meet. They never caught up after the huge 2022 inflation spike. They will not catch up in 2024 as the year will be a year of slow growth or a mild recession.
The crime waves in the D cities will worsen. History shows it takes decades to end a big-city crime wave.
There are many problems the Ds have and problems the Rs have heading into 2024. I’ll analyze both the D and R weaknesses in depth in future TRs. I’ll write more about the R problems when their nominee becomes obvious.
Do not just accept my analysis. CHECK MY FACTS, LOGIC, AND ANALYSES!
Polls
Remember that polls do not predict the future. They are just a snapshot at a particular point in time. Regardless of what current polls show, much will change before next year’s elections.
Harris X/Messenger Poll
They reported:
Trump v. Biden – Trump +2
Trump v. Biden v. Kennedy v. West – Trump +6 over Biden
NYT/Siena College Polls
Siena College polled six crucial swing [purple] states from Oct.22 to Nov.3. Their findings:
AZ – Trump 49, Biden 44
GA – Trump 49, Biden 43
PA – Trump 48, Biden 44
MI – Trump 48, Biden 43
NV – Trump 52, Biden 45
WI – Biden 47, Trump 45
Over the last two weeks or so, three polling groups known to be accurate with state polls — Siena, Bloomberg, and Emerson College – have polled the major swing states. In each case, Trump was ahead of Biden in almost all the states polled. The Democratic Party and potential D candidates have major decisions to make before this week’s SC filing deadline.
The Economy
NEW — The US is at full-employment and added 150,000 jobs in Oct. The unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 3.9%.
The initial estimate of 3rdQ GDP growth is 4.9%. That is likely to slow down quite a bit in the 4thQ and next year.
NEW — National job-openings were reported as unchanged in October at 9.5 million.
Next year’s economy will be hard to predict until we get the late 2023 stats and early 2024 stats and see what the Fed does about rates at their November and December meetings. I rate the chance of a 2024 recession at 50-50.
NEW — The S&P500 is back up well over 10% in 2024 to date after a very strong week. The Fed plans to pause raising rates for a while, and Treasury rates plunged.
NEW – CANARY IN COAL MINE? — Unemployment claims stayed low last week at 217,000. Among employees let go, most are quickly finding new jobs.
NEW — The UAW has tentative contracts with the Big Three. They are likely to be approved by the workers.
Global Political-Economics
Hamas v. Israel
Hamas launched a barbaric attack on Israel killing thousands and abducting hundreds. The savagery and inhumanity of the Hamas attacks were astounding. Israel responded massively.
Israel will also attack Hezbollah in Lebanon if Hezbollah launches a major attack on Israel. So far, the Hezbollah attacks have been limited.
Thankfully the war has not spread in a major way. Perhaps it will stay that way. We can hope.
One reason for the lack of a spreading is that the Israelis brought their military up to over 500,000 troops by calling up over 300,00 reserves. Also, the Israeli forces are having success with their air and ground attacks.
Biden promised strong support to Israel but is now wobbling. Tens of millions of D voters favor Hamas v. the Israelis, and the D party radicals v. liberals split is growing over this war. For example, VP Harris’ step-daughter is fund-raising for Hamas and huge anti-Israel protests are widespread and growing.
Former President Obama, who actually runs the White House and the Democratic Party, is also dithering on the Gaza war. Based on his previous positions it is certain he is pro Hamas. But coming out strongly that way now will tear the Democratic Party apart. He will continue to try to have it both ways but will fail.
Calls for a ceasefire have greatly increased but it is unlikely the Israelis will accept any truce longer than a few hours.
China & US Enemies Watch
China is in decline relative to the US; it is not ascendant!
China’s top priority by far is maintaining Communist Party control of China. Any war with Taiwan and the US will seriously threaten the fall of the Chinese regime. China will not risk it.
Russia is in serious decline, only partially because of the war.
Iran is also in serious decline and things will get far worse.
The War in Ukraine
The ground war is currently in stalemate. Ukraine has some interesting options, but no one knows if they will work. Putin has no way of winning much more of Ukraine’s land than he now holds.
Political Psychiatry Thirty Day Test
If you get upset about a news story, take a deep breath, and ask if it will matter much in 30 days or so. Only rarely will it be important. So, ignore it, and lower your blood pressure.
IN BRIEF
Things to Know / Things to Remember
The war in the Middle-East, set off by the barbaric Hamas attacks, currently shows the Israelis having major successes. The fallout from this war will change the politics and power in the region in unpredictable ways.
Joe Biden will not be President next year for most or all of 2024. His dementia and corruption and now the split in his party over the Gaza war will force him to resign.
A 2024 US recession has a 50-50 chance of occurring.
China’s economic future looks dismal, and it is headed for a severe economic/financial crisis. America’s enemies – China, Russia, and Iran – are all suffering crippling economic problems.
Tuchfarber Report Goals
My primary goal is to present accurate facts, analyses, and predictions. It is not to push any political agenda.
Another goal is to live in neither the Land of Chicken Little, where the sky is always falling, nor in Fantasy Utopia Land, where everything is always going to be fine.
Predictions –Methods & Standards
My method – gather accurate facts, analyze them with no biases, and make accurate predictions.
The Tuchfarber Standard – Make predictions on important issues when I’m over 80% convinced the prediction will be correct.
I made 50 official predictions for 2023. So far, 47 are correct, two are very wobbly, and one is wrong.
I’m sure many of you chuckle when I claim my predictions are unbiased. But how could my predictions have been 91% correct since 2017 if I let biases or hopes to influence them?
Al Tuchfarber PhD — Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati
TuchfarberReport.com
Dr. Tuchfarber founded the Ohio Poll, one of the country’s most accurate, while directing the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati for four decades. He also founded the Institute for Health Policy at the UC Medical Center. He is an engaging, informative, and dynamic speaker. Al has published well over 100 publications about politics, political-economics, society, and research methods.
Echoes of 1968
For those of you old enough to remember, the 2024 election year is shaping up eerily like the 1968 election year. The echoes are:
An unpopular D President, Lyndon Johnson.
A divided Democratic Party over a war — Vietnam.
A culture war of radicalism v. traditional America.
A D President who does not run for re-election.
A third-party candidate, George Wallace, a segregationist Democrat who wins five states.
Chaos in the streets.
Stay tuned…
Of Political Interest
The R debate on Wednesday will have fewer viewers than the 2nd debate and is unlikely to change the polls much.
A key filing deadline passed last Friday for the Presidential primaries in NH in January. Numerous Rs filed. Biden did not, nor did Harris. The mystery of the 2024 D ticket continues. The next big filing deadline, this Thursday, is for the D’s key Feb. 3 SC primary. Might one or more radical Ds jump into the race?
Legendary D strategist James Carville is now publicly saying that Biden cannot beat Trump. When he talks to D leaders, they do not disagree, but tell him to shut up.
The Democrats believe that Trump will be easy to defeat in November 2024. My analysis is the exact opposite, with growing evidence piling up to support that analysis. National and state polls show Biden, or any D, likely to lose.
Trump now leads Biden by 0.6% in the RCP Polling average, but this head-to-head test is no longer very meaningful as the race will end up with many candidates winning 1% or more. In the 4-way race we now have with Trump, Biden, Kennedy, and West the RCP average has Trump up by 3.0%.
Whoever the D candidate is, or the R candidate is, the D will have to win the popular vote by over 4 points to get to the required 270 Electoral Votes. That means the Ds are now 7 points down to the Rs in the 4-way Presidential race.
We are a full year away from next year’s elections. Political realities are changing rapidly. For example, few expected an existential war between Hamas and Israel. The world is in a difficult scary period of change that will keep us wondering.
Trump is running as though he is the incumbent President, which is a sound strategy and is working.
Support for Hamas among radical Ds is exploding and threatening party unity. In this environment a radical D threat to Biden is a very real possibility.
There are very important state legislative elections in VA tomorrow. If either party is notably successful there, it will be an important signal for 2024. Also, I’ll be looking to see if the Gaza War affects D or R turnout across the country.
R candidate Cameron is now tied with incumbent KY D Governor Beshear. Cameron was well down weeks ago.
The long-awaited book, “Where Have All the Democrats Gone?” by two D strategists comes out tomorrow. I’ll report its conclusions next week.
Keep a close watch on how much the Hamas-Israel War is tearing apart the Democratic Party. It is getting ugly.
Political Handicapping
This section is a handicapping section, not a prediction section, except where noted.
It is now shaping up that we will have over six reasonably well-known candidates running for President next year. Most will have a “political brand” of their own or from the political party they are representing. Included are:
- The R nominee – highly likely to be Trump or Haley.
= The D nominee – Harris or someone else, but not Biden.
= A Green Party nominee – unknown.
- A Libertarian Party candidate – unknown.
- Black radical Cornell West, running as an independent.
- The bipartisan No Labels Party nominee – likely to be ex-Democrat Joe Manchin or a moderate Republican.
- Running as an independent, environmentalist-isolationist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- Other third-party candidates with a “brand” will jump in.
- This cluster of third-party candidates will get a lot of coverage from the media and voters because the D and R parties are so disliked, but none of the third-party candidates is likely to win even a single state. The last third-party candidate to win a state was segregationist candidate George Wallace in 1968.
The third-party candidates, as a group, will receive about 15 to 20% in the end, but the polls over the next year will show their collective support at more than 30%. The third-party numbers will stay quite high until very late October next year.
DEMOCRATS
Biden’s age, dementia, corruption, and Gaza war will force him out. He will not be the 2024 D nominee.
REPUBLICANS
- Ex-President Trump now has a 45-point lead over the field. Almost all his supporters are solidly committed to him.
- Individual polls report different results, but the averages of the RCP polls have changed little over the last 30 days. All have Trump with huge leads.
- The only candidate making any progress against Trump is Nikki Haley, but she gained ground only in NH. She is up to 14% of the NH vote but still trails Trump there by 31%.
THE GENERAL ELECTIONS HANDICAPPED
President – The odds are over 80% the President inaugurated on January 20, 2024, will be a Republican. Reason – It is virtually impossible for the inflation, immigration, and crime problems to be solved by the Biden and Harris before November 2024. A weak economy in 2024 is also likely. If the Ds nominate someone other than Biden or Harris, that Democrat will still be faced with the major policy failures of the Biden-Harris administration. Also, the D Party is fracturing on radical v. classic liberal lines over the Gaza war and support for Hamas v. Israel.
Senate – There is a 99% chance the Rs will have a Senate majority in January 2025. That majority could range from 53R-47D to 59R-41D. Reason – the eight Senate candidates most vulnerable next year are all Ds.
House – In 2025, the Republicans are likely to have a 35-seat or larger majority. Reasons: Inflation is the ultimate “kitchen table” issue, and neither the administration nor the Fed know how to fix it and, at the same time, keep the US out of a recession. As James Carville taught us while he helped Bill Clinton win in 1992 — “It’s the economy stupid.” The crime and border issues will harm any D candidate.
If there is a 2024 recession the R’s will win in a landslide as in 2008 when Obama won because of the Great Recession. I will update and explain these odds as the facts change and the facts are changing very rapidly. But consider the problems the Ds already have in 2024.
A year from now the humanitarian immigration/border crisis will be worse. Twenty miles of wall and minor policy changes with fix little. The crime, terrorism fears, sex-trafficking, drug cartels, and the humanitarian nightmare will be worse, because two million more illegals will have entered the US. Fear of Islamic terrorists getting into the US will add to voters’ fears about Biden’s open-border.
The Gaza war is fracturing Democratic unity.
Also disastrous for the Ds is that the problems in the Democratic “sanctuary cities” will be far worse next year. Big city Democratic voters are already furious with the Biden and Harris and their own Democratic mayors. Black and Hispanic voters in major Democratic “sanctuary cities” will be more incensed a year from now because illegal aliens will be taking more-and-more of their jobs and housing.
Over 50% of American households will continue to struggle to make ends meet. They never caught up after the huge 2022 inflation spike. They will not catch up in 2024 as the year will be a year of slow growth or a mild recession.
The crime waves in the D cities will worsen. History shows it takes decades to end a big-city crime wave.
There are many problems the Ds have and problems the Rs have heading into 2024. I’ll analyze both the D and R weaknesses in depth in future TRs. I’ll write more about the R problems when their nominee becomes obvious.
Do not just accept my analysis. CHECK MY FACTS, LOGIC, AND ANALYSES!
Polls
Remember that polls do not predict the future. They are just a snapshot at a particular point in time. Regardless of what current polls show, much will change before next year’s elections.
Harris X/Messenger Poll - They reported:
Trump v. Biden – Trump +2
Trump v. Biden v. Kennedy v. West – Trump +6 over Biden
NYT/Siena College Polls - Siena College polled six crucial swing [purple] states from Oct.22 to Nov.3.
Their findings:
AZ – Trump 49, Biden 44
GA – Trump 49, Biden 43
PA – Trump 48, Biden 44
MI – Trump 48, Biden 43
NV – Trump 52, Biden 45
WI – Biden 47, Trump 45
Over the last two weeks or so, three polling groups known to be accurate with state polls — Siena, Bloomberg, and Emerson College – have polled the major swing states. In each case, Trump was ahead of Biden in almost all the states polled. The Democratic Party and potential D candidates have major decisions to make before this week’s SC filing deadline.
The Economy
NEW — The US is at full-employment and added 150,000 jobs in Oct. The unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 3.9%. The initial estimate of 3rdQ GDP growth is 4.9%. That is likely to slow down quite a bit in the 4thQ and next year.
NEW — National job-openings were reported as unchanged in October at 9.5 million.
Next year’s economy will be hard to predict until we get the late 2023 stats and early 2024 stats and see what the Fed does about rates at their November and December meetings. I rate the chance of a 2024 recession at 50-50.
NEW — The S&P500 is back up well over 10% in 2024 to date after a very strong week. The Fed plans to pause raising rates for a while, and Treasury rates plunged.
NEW – CANARY IN COAL MINE? — Unemployment claims stayed low last week at 217,000. Among employees let go, most are quickly finding new jobs.
NEW — The UAW has tentative contracts with the Big Three. They are likely to be approved by the workers.
Global Political-Economics
Hamas v. Israel
Hamas launched a barbaric attack on Israel killing thousands and abducting hundreds. The savagery and inhumanity of the Hamas attacks were astounding. Israel responded massively.
Israel will also attack Hezbollah in Lebanon if Hezbollah launches a major attack on Israel. So far, the Hezbollah attacks have been limited.
Thankfully the war has not spread in a major way. Perhaps it will stay that way. We can hope.
One reason for the lack of a spreading is that the Israelis brought their military up to over 500,000 troops by calling up over 300,00 reserves. Also, the Israeli forces are having success with their air and ground attacks.
Biden promised strong support to Israel but is now wobbling. Tens of millions of D voters favor Hamas v. the Israelis, and the D party radicals v. liberals split is growing over this war. For example, VP Harris’ step-daughter is fund-raising for Hamas and huge anti-Israel protests are widespread and growing.
Former President Obama, who actually runs the White House and the Democratic Party, is also dithering on the Gaza war. Based on his previous positions it is certain he is pro Hamas. But coming out strongly that way now will tear the Democratic Party apart. He will continue to try to have it both ways but will fail.
Calls for a ceasefire have greatly increased but it is unlikely the Israelis will accept any truce longer than a few hours.
China & US Enemies Watch
China is in decline relative to the US; it is not ascendant!
China’s top priority by far is maintaining Communist Party control of China. Any war with Taiwan and the US will seriously threaten the fall of the Chinese regime. China will not risk it.
Russia is in serious decline, only partially because of the war.
Iran is also in serious decline and things will get far worse.
The War in Ukraine
The ground war is currently in stalemate. Ukraine has some interesting options, but no one knows if they will work. Putin has no way of winning much more of Ukraine’s land than he now holds.
Political Psychiatry Thirty Day Test
If you get upset about a news story, take a deep breath, and ask if it will matter much in 30 days or so. Only rarely will it be important. So, ignore it, and lower your blood pressure.
IN BRIEF
Things to Know / Things to Remember
The war in the Middle-East, set off by the barbaric Hamas attacks, currently shows the Israelis having major successes. The fallout from this war will change the politics and power in the region in unpredictable ways.
Joe Biden will not be President next year for most or all of 2024. His dementia and corruption and now the split in his party over the Gaza war will force him to resign.
A 2024 US recession has a 50-50 chance of occurring.
China’s economic future looks dismal, and it is headed for a severe economic/financial crisis. America’s enemies – China, Russia, and Iran – are all suffering crippling economic problems.
Tuchfarber Report Goals - My primary goal is to present accurate facts, analyses, and predictions. It is not to push any political agenda.
Another goal is to live in neither the Land of Chicken Little, where the sky is always falling, nor in Fantasy Utopia Land, where everything is always going to be fine.
Predictions –Methods & Standards
My method – gather accurate facts, analyze them with no biases, and make accurate predictions.
The Tuchfarber Standard – Make predictions on important issues when I’m over 80% convinced the prediction will be correct.
I made 50 official predictions for 2023. So far, 47 are correct, two are very wobbly, and one is wrong.
I’m sure many of you chuckle when I claim my predictions are unbiased. But how could my predictions have been 91% correct since 2017 if I let biases or hopes to influence them?
Al Tuchfarber PhD — Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Cincinnati
Al.Tuchfarber@gmail.com
Tuchfarber Political-Economics LLC
TuchfarberReport.com
Dr. Tuchfarber founded the Ohio Poll, one of the country’s most accurate, while directing the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati for four decades. He also founded the Institute for Health Policy at the UC Medical Center. He is an engaging, informative, and dynamic speaker. Al has published well over 100 publications about politics, political-economics, society, and research methods.