Post by Blitz on Oct 4, 2023 6:10:39 GMT -5
Here's a real world supply & lesson that illustrates how Covid shutdowns, bird flu, and labor shortages all combines to drive egg prices way up & way down in this crazy period of rolling inflation in sectors and rolling recession in sectors... making it so hard for the Fed and economists to predict and battle inflation via the standard models of raising rates, recession, and, unemployment. Supply ultimately has a lot to do with inflation. Increasing productivity to increase supply ultimately does more to fight inflation rather than Keynesian demand stimulus via government debt driven fiscal stimulus.
And now this...
Eggs Are (Finally) Getting Less Expensive
Those record prices per dozen have finally cracked.
By Jelisa Castrodale Published on June 12, 2023
www.foodandwine.com/egg-prices-dropping-2023-7511033
Egg Prices are finally dropping
We don’t get to talk about prices dropping very often, but it's finally happening in the egg section of the supermarket. Six months after reaching a high of $7 per dozen in some parts of the country, the USDA’s most recent Egg Market News Report suggests that we might not get sticker shock every time we want to make a scramble.
The average wholesale price of a dozen eggs is currently between $0.99 and $1.39, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the average consumer price was about $3.27 per dozen in April. That’s the lowest price for a carton since last September.
So why are the prices falling? There are a number of factors, including rising egg supplies as the avian flu outbreak has started to wane, and a decrease in demand for eggs. Supermarket shoppers didn’t buy as many eggs because of those historically high prices, and egg sales tend to fall in the summer months anyway.
“Some of the demand issue is seasonal, but consumer response to higher egg prices is also part of it,” David Anderson, Ph.D., an AgriLife Extension economist at Texas A&M University, told AgriLife Today. “Meanwhile egg producers continue to increase production, and the market is responding to the supply and demand factors. It’s a good example of how the market works.”
According to CNN, the number of hens laying eggs for consumption is currently around 314 million. That’s up from 308 million birds in December — as bird flu continued to spread — but down from an estimated 328 million hens in December 2021.
“Though the virus is still present, it’s managed to elude commercial layer operations since December, allowing farmers to repopulate a good portion of the production that was lost," Karyn Rispoli, senior egg market analyst at market research company Urner Barry, told USA Today.
Having slightly more affordable eggs is certainly worth noting, as the price of that grocery staple had increased at a far greater rate than overall inflation. USA Today reports that although inflation pushed supermarket prices up by around 11% between January 2022 and January 2023, the price of eggs soared by 70% in the same 12-month period.
Whether or not prices continue to fall could depend on the supermarkets themselves. “It is a question of egg price management by grocers,” Kevin Bergquist, a sector manager at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, told the outlet. “There still could be lower egg prices for the consumer on the near horizon, even if egg prices for producers don’t fall any further this summer season.”
Finally, things are looking (sunny side) up.
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Prices for Eggs, 1935-2023 ($2.04)
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices for eggs are 748.39% higher in 2023 versus 1935 (a $15.27 difference in value).
The current national average price is $2.04 for "Eggs, grade A, large, per doz.". This data is collected by a national survey and can vary from region to region.
Between 1935 and 2023: Eggs experienced an average inflation rate of 2.46% per year. This rate of change indicates significant inflation. In other words, eggs costing $2.04 in the year 1935 would cost $17.31 in 2023 for an equivalent purchase. Compared to the overall inflation rate of 3.58% during this same period, inflation for eggs was lower.
/////////////////////
The pace of promotional activity for conventional caged shell eggs in retail outlets increases into October and the average ad price declines $0.03 to $1.38 per dozen.
tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us
And now this...
Eggs Are (Finally) Getting Less Expensive
Those record prices per dozen have finally cracked.
By Jelisa Castrodale Published on June 12, 2023
www.foodandwine.com/egg-prices-dropping-2023-7511033
Egg Prices are finally dropping
We don’t get to talk about prices dropping very often, but it's finally happening in the egg section of the supermarket. Six months after reaching a high of $7 per dozen in some parts of the country, the USDA’s most recent Egg Market News Report suggests that we might not get sticker shock every time we want to make a scramble.
The average wholesale price of a dozen eggs is currently between $0.99 and $1.39, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the average consumer price was about $3.27 per dozen in April. That’s the lowest price for a carton since last September.
So why are the prices falling? There are a number of factors, including rising egg supplies as the avian flu outbreak has started to wane, and a decrease in demand for eggs. Supermarket shoppers didn’t buy as many eggs because of those historically high prices, and egg sales tend to fall in the summer months anyway.
“Some of the demand issue is seasonal, but consumer response to higher egg prices is also part of it,” David Anderson, Ph.D., an AgriLife Extension economist at Texas A&M University, told AgriLife Today. “Meanwhile egg producers continue to increase production, and the market is responding to the supply and demand factors. It’s a good example of how the market works.”
According to CNN, the number of hens laying eggs for consumption is currently around 314 million. That’s up from 308 million birds in December — as bird flu continued to spread — but down from an estimated 328 million hens in December 2021.
“Though the virus is still present, it’s managed to elude commercial layer operations since December, allowing farmers to repopulate a good portion of the production that was lost," Karyn Rispoli, senior egg market analyst at market research company Urner Barry, told USA Today.
Having slightly more affordable eggs is certainly worth noting, as the price of that grocery staple had increased at a far greater rate than overall inflation. USA Today reports that although inflation pushed supermarket prices up by around 11% between January 2022 and January 2023, the price of eggs soared by 70% in the same 12-month period.
Whether or not prices continue to fall could depend on the supermarkets themselves. “It is a question of egg price management by grocers,” Kevin Bergquist, a sector manager at Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, told the outlet. “There still could be lower egg prices for the consumer on the near horizon, even if egg prices for producers don’t fall any further this summer season.”
Finally, things are looking (sunny side) up.
//////////////////////
Prices for Eggs, 1935-2023 ($2.04)
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices for eggs are 748.39% higher in 2023 versus 1935 (a $15.27 difference in value).
The current national average price is $2.04 for "Eggs, grade A, large, per doz.". This data is collected by a national survey and can vary from region to region.
Between 1935 and 2023: Eggs experienced an average inflation rate of 2.46% per year. This rate of change indicates significant inflation. In other words, eggs costing $2.04 in the year 1935 would cost $17.31 in 2023 for an equivalent purchase. Compared to the overall inflation rate of 3.58% during this same period, inflation for eggs was lower.
/////////////////////
The pace of promotional activity for conventional caged shell eggs in retail outlets increases into October and the average ad price declines $0.03 to $1.38 per dozen.
tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us