Post by Blitz on Sept 5, 2023 13:39:51 GMT -5
Subject: The World Outlook - The Fruits of Weakness
April 15, 2023
Special Edition
DECLINING U.S. DETERRENCE, INCREASED VULNERABILITY AND OUR FUTURE IN CHINA’S NEW WORLD ORDER.
By: Marvin L. Covault, April 12, 2023
Lt. Gen. US Army retired
ASSERTION:
China wants to control the world, as in, “To exercise authoritative or dominative influence over.” One might even alter this official definition by substituting “and” for “or”.
FACTS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM:
What follows is a potpourri of what I believe to be critical issues associated with China’s long-range strategic plan to control the world. I further believe they are well past the planning stage and at least into phase 3 of execution. This conclusion becomes more obvious when we take a look at what our four existing enemies, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are doing.
CHANGE:
Changes in foreign affairs and foreign relations can be good, advantageous, bad, fast, slow, uplifting, dangerous, etc. If it is a combination of fast and bad, we need to recognize it, admit to it, and then do something about it. The U.S. may already be so far behind the power curve that we cannot save ourselves.
WHAT OUR ENEMIES ARE UP TO:
China’s Achilles' heel has been the availability of natural gas and oil. They currently import 10-12 million barrels of crude oil per day from two major oil sources, Russia and the Middle East. Included in all of their recent foreign relations are actions that will insure a sustained future supply of oil and gas
2001: For decades during the post-WW II Cold War period, China and Russia were at odds with each other over which one was to be the dominant figure in transitioning the world to communism/socialism. Those days concluded in 2001 when China and Russia signed a long-range friendship and cooperation treaty.
2013: China’s Belt and Road Initiative, launched by Xi Jinping, is a multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure program that is intended to link China with more than 100 of the 195 world countries. China has provided funding for roads, railroads, power plants, ports, mining, and energy projects. Some of the projects consist of huge loans to poorer countries that ultimately cannot be paid back to China. China then uses leverage and bartering to gain control over critical natural resources.
CHINA AND RARE EARTH ELEMENTS such as cobalt, nickel, copper, and lithium are essential components in producing renewable energy technology, semiconductors, and other electronics. Access to these resources has never been more important; they will define future economic growth. China has taken the lead in this global “gold rush.” China’s mining companies are merging with other firms, creating a global force in the extraction of rare elements. Additionally, China holds a monopoly in processing the elements with 80% of U.S. refined rare earth elements imports coming from China. For example, it is reported that China controls about 80% of the mineable lithium deposits in the world. So, what happens when the U.S. has 50 million electric vehicles on the road and we are out of lithium for new batteries?
November 2020: There was a signing ceremony in which 15 Asian nations, led by China, agreed to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership which casts China as a champion of globalization and multilateral cooperation in a multi-nation effort towards freer trade and future prosperity. It is the world’s largest free trade bloc. The U.S. is not included.
March 2021: China and Iran signed a strategic cooperation agreement that includes oil and mining rights for China, military cooperation, and China’s $400 billion economic investment. China is Iran’s leading trade partner. This is a significant step in reducing U.S. influence in the Middle East, crippling the U.S. sanctions on Iran and firming up China’s future supply of imported oil.
June 2021: Putin and Xi Jinping announced the extension of the 20-year-old friendship and cooperation treaty.
February 2022: Putin and Xi Jinping signed a new statement that outlines a bold New World Order and a partnership between the two states without any limitations. It openly declares against NATO and its concern over AUKUS, a security partnership between the U.S., Australia, and the United Kingdom. The most crucial element of the joint declaration was their alliance against the U.S. Additionally, they signed a new deal under which Russia will deliver gas to China via the Far Eastern route strengthening their energy cooperation.
June 2022: China’s crude oil imports from Russia soared 55% from a year earlier, surpassing Saudi Arabia as China’s top supplier. This happened despite sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
September 2022: Putin, Xi, and the president of Mongolia agreed to a plan for a new pipeline capable of delivering 50 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia to China via Mongolia.
December 2022: China and Saudi Arabia released a statement agreeing to a range of issues including energy, security, Iran’s nuclear program, the crisis in Yemen, and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
January 2023: Notwithstanding the three-year Covid bump in the road, China’s economy is on track for a resurgence. China’s Gross Domestic Product growth over the last 10 years was 6% or better annually until Covid hit in 2020. Their target GDP growth for 2023 is 5% while defense spending is 7.2%. By the way, the U.S. GDP growth in 2023 is projected to be south of 2%.
March 2023: China and Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, have agreed to stop trading with the U.S. dollar and use their own currencies instead. They will carry out their immense economic dealings without use of the dollar as a medium of exchange. Twenty-three countries representing about 60% of the world’s GDP are setting up swap lines that bypass the U.S. dollar as the medium of exchange. Included in the 23 are Russia, China, India, Germany, France, and the UK.
23 March 2023: China and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement granting Saudi Arabia the status of a “dialogue partner” in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a club of mostly ex-Soviet states as well as other major economic players such as India and Pakistan. This agreement is a step towards full membership for Saudi Arabia. As Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst put it, “The traditional monogamous relationship with the U.S. is now over.”
1984: Iran was designated a State Sponsor of Terrorism. Since 2005 EU, UN, and U.S. sanctions have targeted Iran for violating treaties under which it promised not to pursue nuclear weapons. By 2015 the sanctions resulted in unemployment and high inflation rates thereby devastating Iran’s economy.
When was the last time you saw a product that was “made in Iran?”The point is, Iran’s economic highs and lows are directly tied to the export of oil. It follows that Iran’s support of terrorism and its nuclear program are therefore also tied to oil export income. President Trump tightened down the sanctions on Iran and crushed their economy. Oil exports plummeted from 2.1 million barrels a day in 2017 to 404,000 in 2020. President Biden relaxed the sanctions to get back the failed nuclear agreement with Iran and their oil exports nearly doubled in 2021 and continues to rise every day since.
2016: Russia agreed with Iran to build nuclear power capabilities inside Iran which has obviously been advantageous as their nuclear production capability is now imminent.
March 2021: Iran and China signed a 25-year cooperation agreement that will strengthen their relationship concerning political, strategic, military, and economic components. China has contracts totaling hundreds of billions of dollars in Iran’s gas and oil industry including exclusive rights to several Iranian oil and natural gas fields. It is not lost on China planners that Iran ranks as the fourth-largest reserve of oil and the second-largest reserve of natural gas in the world. Iran has signed on to China’s One Belt and Road program as a key part of China’s geopolitical ambitions in central Asia and the Middle East. They are also linked militarily with China providing advanced systems to include control technology for long-range missile development.
January 2022: Iran, China, and Russia held their third joint naval drills in the northern Indian Ocean. There also continue to be Chinese nuclear experts, scientists, and technicians present in Iran.
20 July 2022: On his first trip abroad since the invasion of Ukraine, Putin visited Iran to, “Strengthen our cooperation on international security issues, making a significant contribution to the settlement of the Syrian conflict.” The same day Iran’s oil ministry signed a $40 billion deal with Russia which includes developing Iranian gas fields and building new gas export pipelines.
1 March 2023: Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Colin Kahl reported to Congress that, “Iran can produce enough fissile material for one nuclear bomb in about 12 days.”
11 March 2023: After years of hostility, China brokered a deal whereby Saudi Arabia and Iran will reestablish relations; reopening embassies in Tehran and Riyadh within the next two months.
February 2023: CIA Director says Russia is offering Iran help with its missile program in exchange for military aid; and says the partnership is, “growing in a very dangerous direction.” Now that Russia is struggling through a war in Ukraine, Iran can reciprocate in their relationship by providing hundreds of attack drones to Russia thereby further strengthening their cooperation.
NORTH KOREA, RECENT HEADLINES:
North Korea has conducted 270 missile launches and nuclear tests since 1984; well over 100 of those since Biden took office.
2018, 2019: President Trump made three trips to Asia to meet with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un. We do not know what Trump said, but nuclear and missile testing stopped. They resumed a month after Biden took office and have continued at a torrid pace since.
In February 2023; North Korea fired four strategic cruise missiles demonstrating its ability to conduct a nuclear counterattack.
9 March 2023: North Korea launched six short-range ballistic missiles; describing their ability to attack military airfields in South Korea.
12 March 2023: While North Korea has been launching ballistic missiles from a submarine since 2016, the latest launch, 12 March 2023, is proof-of-concept of a more capable missile.
2023: North Korea launches a test missile with the range to hit the U.S. The White House says President Biden was briefed on the situation and will continue to consult with allies. OK, and………?
North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal and provocations have raised the urgency for South Korea and Japan to strengthen their defense postures.
China is considered North Korea’s closest ally; they have had a mutual aid and cooperation treaty since 1961. Their relationship declined earlier this century over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. However, relations have been increasingly close since 2018.
U.S./SAUDI ARABIA RELATIONSHIPS THEN AND NOW:
Bilateral agreements, particularly in the energy and security sectors have endured between the U.S. and Saudi for decades. Saudi Arabia is one of the U.S.’s largest trading partners in the Middle East. The U.S. has been instrumental over the decades in organizing, training, and equipping the Saudi military.
The Obama/Biden and now the Biden administration’s bungling of the nuclear issues as they apply to Iran have created a deep mistrust between Saudi Arabia in particular and other Middle East nations in general towards the U.S. They do not want a nuclear Iran and believe Biden has facilitated it.
In 2017, President Trump’s first overseas trip was to Saudi Arabia which was described as, “A pro-American extravaganza” where Trump and the King signed a $110 billion arms deal.
Saudi Arabia is engaged in a war with their southern neighbor, Yemen. The terrorist group, Houthi, engaged the Yemen government forces in 2014 and succeeded in capturing most of the country. The ousted Yemen president asked Saudi Arabia for assistance. The Saudis put together a coalition of nine Middle East nations to assist. During the conflict, the U.S. provided intelligence and logistical support as well as the sale of arms to coalition states. The Houthi terrorist group is sponsored by and equipped by Iran. They routinely attack Saudi oil-producing areas and oil refineries. Because of all that, President Trump put the Houthis on the international terrorist list.
China’s extensive move into the affairs of Middle East countries has been alarmingly rapid and extensive. Why? Because Biden facilitated it. During his 2020 campaign Biden frequently referred to Saudi Arabia as a “pariah” nation.
January 2021: Enter the Biden Administration. They immediately removed the Houthis from the terrorist list and canceled a Saudi order for military equipment needed to fight the Houthis. Biden went on to announce an end to American support for Saudi-led offensive operations against the Houthis. A perfect lesson on how not to treat friends and valued allies.
Additionally, during his 2020 campaign Biden labeled Saudi Arabia a “pariah state” over the murder of U.S.-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Given those underpinnings, Biden’s trip in July 2022 to Saudi Arabia to beg for oil ended up being all about a fist bump and was a national disgrace.
BIDEN AND ISRAEL:
It began with the Obama/Biden administration and has been exacerbated in the Biden administration; that is, they simply abandoned the U.S. decades-old policy of uncompromising support to Israel, our most valued friend, and ally in the Middle East.
March 2023: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was engaged in Israel’s proposed judicial reform. On 23 March, Biden spoke publicly on the issue making it clear that Netanyahu is still not on his schedule for a White House visit, “Not in the near term”, he said. This breaks precedent with every U.S. president for decades.
6 April 2023: Dozens of rockets were fired into Israel from Lebanon and Gaza by Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists. The response from President Biden, as he departed for a long Easter weekend, “My expectation and hope is that this will be closing down sooner than later.” Wow, tough talk from the supposed-to-be leader of the free world and decades-old close and valued ally, Israel. Mr. President, “hope” is not a process.
U.S. LEADERSHIP IN LATIN AMERICA:
March 2023: Honduras recently cut ties with Taiwan and established diplomatic ties with China.
The opposition in Paraguay recently announced that if it wins the elections in April, it will do the same. In the past four years, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Panama have each switched their recognition from Taiwan to China.
March 2022: China has extended its Belt and Road infrastructure investment program into Latin America; there are 26 projects in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. Additionally, China has strengthened its military ties, especially with Venezuela. China has replaced the U.S. as Latin America’s leading trade partner.
This is all happening despite President Biden's 2020 campaign pledge that he would restore American leadership to Latin America and counter China's growing influence there.
8 March 2023: "What concerns me as a Combatant Commander is the myriad of ways in which the PRC is spreading its malign influence, wielding its economic might, and conducting gray zone activities to expand its military and political access and influence.”; testimony by General Laura Jane Richardson, Commander, US Southern Command, to the House Armed Services Committee.
The dominoes in Latin America are falling at an ever-increasing pace while the U.S. remains passively standing on the sidelines, politically and economically, watching as China turns the continent into its subject.
LEADER OF THE FREE WORLD:
The U.S. emerged on the world stage during World War I, that accelerated during WW II and through the Cold War. As a result, for decades the U.S. president has been referred to as, “The leader of the free world.” That title was not ceremonial, it existed because the free world believed it. But President Biden’s actions over the past two years have disappointed and disillusioned world leaders. For example:
ü The embarrassing and unnecessary military/political collapse in Afghanistan.
ü Disrespect for a leader who would instantly squander his nation’s energy independence to make a trite political point.
ü Astonishment that President Biden would willingly and deliberately threaten our national security by opening our borders to millions of unvetted, untested criminals, gang members, terrorists, drug dealers, human traffickers, hundreds of thousands of unaccompanied minors, and millions of common folks with no known skillsets from over 170 countries.
ü Inability to admit to or deal with growing lawlessness across the U.S.
ü Obvious disinterest and/or inability to deal with North Korea’s ramped-up nuclear and long-range missile testing.
ü His inability to speak to difficult and demanding world issues without a prepared script and/or staged Q and A.
ü His propensity to blame every, I mean EVERY, issue that is not going well for the American people on President Trump. No, zero, accountability.
ü And finally, the icing on the cake. The world watched the Russian buildup of an invasion force on the border with Ukraine from October 2021 through 24 February 2022. While China and North Korea refused to condemn the invasion, the remainder of the world thought otherwise. But the shockwave instantaneously hit the world when President Biden, in a rare extemporaneous moment, said, “Russia will be held accountable if it invades. It depends on what it does. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and then we end up fighting about what to do and not do, et cetera.” The world’s interpretation of that statement is, a little invasion will be OK. Biden’s minions moved quickly to issue a what-the-president-meant-to-say statement but the irrevocable damage had been done. Suspicions confirmed: the president of the United States can no longer be trusted or respected as the leader of the free world.
Our allies and enemies alike are wondering who is in charge. There are obvious global doubts about President Biden’s physical and cognitive capacity to deal with the rigorous demands of a “leader of the free world.”
U.S. MILITARY DETERRENCE:
Deterrence is a mindset outside the U.S. Simply stated, our allies trust us to have their back in international affairs and our enemies fear our military capabilities and willingness to take them on.
Here is a summary of an unclassified online U.S. military operation that definitively illustrates deterrence on today’s battlefields and the connection between small unit operations to the military’s most senior leaders.
June 2014: U.S. Launched Operation Inherent Resolve to destroy the Islamic State Group in Iraq and Syria, ISIS. Russia had committed military forces to Syria. The U.S. was allied with Kurdish and Syrian Democratic Forces against ISIS. Russia and the U.S. had opened a communications hotline to avoid direct conflict with each other.
February 2018: During one afternoon a small group of 30 U.S. Special Operations Forces plus their local forces watched a surveillance drone feed as an enemy force of about 500 troops, 27 vehicles, and Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers, about 20 miles away, positioned itself to attack the small U.S. outpost. The Russian element consisted of Wagner Group personnel. Wagner Group is a private military company of mercenaries that operates beyond the law under the control of President Putin. The U.S. higher headquarters in Qatar was alerted and air support was placed on strip alert. At 8:30 p.m. the enemy force moved out and a nearby U.S. ground quick-reaction force launched in support with anti-tank missiles. The enemy opened fire at 10:30. By then, former General Jim Mattis, then Secretary of Defense, was on the hotline with his Russian counterpart who declared the attackers were not Russians. Mattis, later testified before Congress, saying he immediately called the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and told him to take out the enemy force.
Waves of F-22 fighters, F-15E strike fighters, AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, AC-130 gunships, B-52 bombers, MQ-9 Reaper drones, and Marine artillery relentlessly attacked the enemy force. An enemy Russian mercenary survivor later said, “We should never have been there; our leadership messed up. The Americans knew exactly where we were.” At about 1:00 a.m. the surviving enemy force fled the area leaving behind 200-300 KIA. One Syrian soldier at the outpost was wounded. There were no U.S. casualties.
A month later, a group of Syrian fighters and Russian mercenaries began a similar buildup, also near an American outpost. This time when Sec Def called his Russian counterpart the enemy forces immediately dispersed. That is deterrence in action on today’s battlefields in today’s ugly world where enemy countries, led by thugs, only understand power or the lack thereof.
January 2021- April 2023: Within the last two years, the Biden administration has dictated that the U.S. military, as an organization, sign up for diversity, equity, and inclusion, (DEI). This flies in the face of everything a capable military force must be and do. “Equity” is pure poison to any military organization. A new generation of leaders is being DEI indoctrinated. The force can no longer recruit America’s best and brightest. Across the board, military standards are being lowered. Meritocracy, the foundation of every military organization from the squad to Army-level commands, is dying or already dead; mediocracy rules the day and the future is bleak.
August 2021: U.S. deterrence died when Commander in Chief Biden directed the cut-and-run operation from Afghanistan. Our in-country allies were left dumb-founded and in harm’s way from the immediate Taliban takeover. U.S. citizens were left stranded in Afghanistan. Our long-time loyal individual Afghan supporters on the ground were abandoned and left to be hunted down and killed by the Taliban. All of this unfolded on the world stage within a few days.
6 April 2023: The White House released a 12-page after-action review of the Afghanistan withdrawal. A National Security Council spokesperson took questions as the President shuffled off to his helicopter for a long weekend at Camp David. The bottom line is that the Biden Administration, true to form, blamed the whole thing on President Trump. The report actually named Trump 14 times and uses the word “accountability” once. A fact-checked review of key actions tells a very different story. This was, pure and simple, Biden’s withdrawal; here’s why:
ü February 2020: The U.S. negotiated a withdrawal agreement with the Taliban that included many requirements and concessions from both sides. The date set for final withdrawal was 1 May 2021.
ü 2020: Negotiations continued throughout the year with the Taliban continuously failing to meet their end of the agreement.
ü 15 January 2021: U.S. force levels reached 2500 as required by the agreement.
ü 19 February 2021: Biden, “My administration strongly supports the diplomatic process that’s underway and to bring an end to this war that is closing out 20 years.” at that point, Biden owned it, period.
ü 7 March 2021: Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he is “concerned that the security situation will worsen and the Taliban could make rapid territorial gains.” Biden is aware of the tenuous situation.
ü 25 March 2021: Gen. Richard Clarke, commander of the U.S. Special Operations Command, testifies before the Senate Armed Services Committee that “it is clear that the Taliban have not upheld what they said they would do and reduce the violence.” More input to Biden.
ü 14 April 2021: Biden announces that all troops will be removed by 11 September 2021.
ü 18 May 2021 The Defense Department IG reports that during the first three months of 2021, “The Taliban initiated 37% more attacks than during the same period in 2020,”More input to the President.
ü 6 July 2021: The U.S. military has pulled out of Bagram Airfield. Why? Because the command could not simultaneously secure/operate Bagram Airbase and the U.S. Embassy (Biden’s priority for security) in Kabul with only 2,500 troops.
ü 8 July 2021: Biden moves up the timeline for full troop withdrawal to Aug. 31, saying, “The likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.”
ü 6 August 2021: The Taliban takes control of its first province despite the agreement it signed with the U.S.
ü 15 August 2021: Taliban fighters enter the capital; the Afghan president flees the country; the U.S. evacuates the embassy by helicopter.
Note: during the critical days of the collapse, Biden was at Camp David instead of in the White House situation room with his National Security team.
ü 16 August 2021: In a speech to the nation, Biden said, “I do not regret my decision to end America’s warfighting in Afghanistan,” and deflected blame for the government’s swift collapse.
ü 26 August. 2021: 13 U.S. service members were killed by a suicide bomber at the Kabul airport. Why? Because the Bagram Airbase had been closed prematurely to meet troop constraint numbers. All air operations could have/should have been conducted out of a secure Bagram, not the unsecured Kabul airport. At any time during the chaotic early hours of the withdrawal, additional U.S./NATO troops could have/should have been brought in to renew Bagram operations.
ü 31 August.2021: In a speech to the nation, Biden calls the Afghan withdrawal an, “extraordinary success.”
ü 6 April 2023: Following the release of the withdrawal after action review, the White House spokesperson said the administration is “proud” of the Afghanistan withdrawal. Tell that to the families of the 13 dead service members, Mr. President. But the president did not hear that statement because he snuck out of the White House, avoided reporters by not using the South Lawn helipad, motored to Fort McNair, and took his helicopter to Camp David for an extended Easter vacation. Pathetic leadership /accountability.
U.S. VULNERABILITIES:
Given that our deterrent posture has been shattered, that a New World Order led by China is rapidly emerging, that our reliance on decades-old alliances is suspect or nonexistent and, given the status of current U.S. leadership, where does the U.S. stand on the issue of vulnerability? let’s take a look at some of what our enemies may be capable of doing to us.
6 May 2021, CYBER-ATTACK: A cyber-attack, believed to have been initiated in Russia, shut down one of the US’ largest (5,500 miles) pipelines, highlighting heightened concerns over the vulnerability of the nation’s critical infrastructure. The attack shut down the flow of gasoline and jet fuel across the South and up to New York for about a week. This is an example of our vulnerability to cyber-attacks. It was only an inconvenience but was certainly proof-of-concept success for Russia.
Biden’s response: Biden and Putin met a month later at a scheduled international conference where Biden told reporters, “I gave him a list of 16 specific entities defined a critical infrastructure under U.S. policy from the energy sector to our water systems.” This ridiculous response simply raised the question, is everything that is not on the list fair game for attack? A different response might have been a phone call; something like this:
“Vlad, this is Joe. I just shut down your gas and oil pipeline to China. I’m sure you will soon be hearing from our friend Xi. My people tell me that no matter what your techies do, we can keep it down for at least a month. I see three alternatives. One, you do nothing. Two, you retaliate with another cyberattack on the U.S. Keep in mind that we have all of your other pipelines queued up to also be immediately shut down. Or three, you and I can agree, today, that neither of us will ever again initiate a cyberattack on the other. I need your answer by this afternoon. Have a nice day, goodbye.”
China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran all have sophisticated cyber-attack capabilities. Imagine if they ganged up under guidance from China and shut down all of the major gasoline pipelines for a month? We would likely see massive lawlessness and the beginnings of anarchy throughout the nation.
3 December 2022, POWER GRID: I was home in North Carolina when th Le lights went out. We were soon informed by Duke Energy that shooters had taken out two nearby electrical distribution substations leaving about 40,000 residents without electrical power for several days.
How vulnerable is our power grid? At least 6 such attacks occurred across the nation in 2021 and 20 in 2022.
Power Grid Facts: The power grid is a distribution system of power plants, substations, transformers, and power lines with about 55,000 substations like the one near my home in NC. The systems are increasingly decrepit, poorly maintained, and frightfully vulnerable to accidents, disasters, and enemy action including cyber warfare. Most of the system is unguarded. Low-tech in nature, these attacks can be highly organized and professionally executed.
Because the entire grid is so complex, any failure in the system has the possibility of creating a “cascading failure effect”. When that happens, shutdowns can cascade like dominoes, and the entire grid can be subject to shutting down.
How vulnerable are we? Of the 55,000 substations, there are 30 that are most critical for the interconnection of the entire grid. Furthermore, by initiating a coordinated attack and destroying only 9 of those 30 interconnected substations, studies estimate the entire U.S. grid could be down for, “at least 18 months, probably longer.”
Instantly it would not be 2023, it would be like 1823 or perhaps 1723 and we are not prepared for that. Consider this short list of what would no longer be available:
water supply,
telecommunications,
food production and delivery,
fuel extraction, refining, and distribution,
law enforcement,
emergency services,
hospitals, and
the reality that you may never hear from family and loved ones again; ever.
Immediate anarchy would prevail and tens of millions of Americans would be dead in the first month.
Could this happen? Yes, consider just this one scenario: Iran is the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism with access to and some control over most terrorist organizations. Iran’s leadership is morally corrupt and would like nothing more than to achieve their long-term and frequently stated goal of “Death to America.”
The above information leads one to believe that a dozen 3-4-person terrorist teams of marksmen could simultaneously take down the 9 critical substations out of the existing 55,000 and thereby take America into darkness. Where would the terrorist teams come from? They may already be here after coming across our open border. Were the 20 attacks last year simply a series of proof-of-concept operations?
2023, UNPREPARED FOR WAR:
Results from recent war-game simulations with the U.S. vs China in the South China Sea, conclude the U.S. would run out of some types of critical guided missiles within a week. This is all unclassified information available to anyone including China.
Military equipment and munitions to Ukraine have reduced war reserves to such dangerously low levels that, under current production capabilities, some will not be renewed for 5-8 years. For example, there is one U.S. production facility for 155mm howitzer shells and The U.S. is capable of producing about 14,000 per month. On average Ukraine is firing 7,700 each day. You do the math.
Recent testimony in a Congressional committee revealed that the U.S. is currently dependent on imports of certain rare metals from China and Russia for the production of bullets, explosives, nuclear weapons, and an array of military equipment. For example, there is no domestic mine for antimony, a rare metal required in the production of ammunition. The U.S. currently relies almost entirely on China for antimony to be able to produce a single bullet.
ENERGY DEPENDENCE:
3 April 2023: Saudi-led oil producers announced they will cut oil production by one million barrels a day beginning in May. Since Biden’s assault on the U.S. fossil-fuel production, we are continuously vulnerable to oil production abroad. This is a serious national security issue that the president will not even address.
STRATEGIC OIL RESERVES:
Strategic reserves are dangerously low. One year ago, we had 577 million barrels and today it is 371 million; down 36% in one year. Why? Biden sold off reserves to reduce U.S. gas prices before the 2022 election. The U.S. consumption rate is about 20 million barrels per day. Another serious national security issue.
ONE OF MANY EXAMPLES OF OUR OVER-DEPENDENCE ON CHINA:
Medicine: Chinese firms supply more than 90% of U.S. antibiotics, and 70% of Tylenol and recent studies found that about 80% of the basic ingredients in U.S.-produced drugs come from China. Imagine a call from Xi Jinping to Biden: “ I have just ordered the cancelation of all shipments of pharmaceuticals to the U.S. unless you do (or don’t do) “X”. I need to know your decision this afternoon.” You get the picture, that’s leverage that would impact the life of every American. Leverage we do not have.
LEADERSHIP WEAKNESS:
28 January 2023: The Chinese spy balloon entered Alaska air space, collected data for seven days, and was shot down. What did Biden do? Nothing.
14 March 2023: A Russian fighter jet shot down a U.S. drone over the Black Sea. What did Biden do? Nothing.
SOUTH CHINA SEA:
1988: I was the deputy plans officer for the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions at U.S. Pacific Command Headquarters in Hawaii. I recall discussions about and seeing photos of habitable shacks on stilts being placed on reefs in the South China Sea by the Chinese. They would raise a flag, somehow provide provisions to the inhabitants and declare it was Chinese sovereign territory. Today structures at three of the man-made islands have been fully militarized with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment, and long runways for fighter jets to be capable of controlling any nation utilizing those shipping lanes. It’s important to note that one-third of all global shipping transits the South China Sea lanes. Additionally, Japan and South Korea together import about 5 million barrels of oil per day on that sea lane which can now be controlled by China. Without massive oil imports our two principal allies in that region, Japan and Korea, would be powerless within a few weeks. Another example of control resulted from brilliant long-range strategic planning and execution by China.
CHINA’S NAVAL FORCES:
2023: To control the world, China needs a world-class navy. In the past few years, China has concentrated on building modern surface combatants, submarines, aircraft carriers, fighter jets, amphibious assault ships, ballistic nuclear missile submarines, large coast guard cutters, and polar icebreakers. Its Navy has more than tripled in size in only two decades and has become the world’s largest naval force, and there is no end in sight.
ELECCTROMAGNETIC PULSE (EMP):
An EMP occurs naturally in space but can also be a burst of electromagnetic energy produced by a nuclear explosion in the atmosphere. It is the ultimate weapon capable of completely destroying America in seconds. The size of the nuclear weapon and the altitude at which it is detonated determines the size of the destruction area. We will not see any damage but the electronic pulse will simply take out the electric grid and every object that has an electric component. For example, every vehicle would die in place and never move again. Every gadget in our homes would be worthless. No communications, water pumps, transportation, production, emergency services, nothing would work. U.S. nuclear retaliation would not be possible. Lawlessness would prevail; ammunition would become the operative currency. We would be a nation of hunter-gatherers and within weeks die by the tens of millions. Only a few would survive.
China and Russia have this capability. North Korea may have it. Iran wants it.
CONCLUSIONS:
Organizations that are great long-range strategic planners, like China, also tend towards agility and are capable of capitalizing on an unforeseen occurrence and accelerating their timeline to achieve their end state. That unforeseen occurrence was the self-inflicted wound suffered by the U.S.’ despicable cut-and-run from Afghanistan in August 2021. Look at China’s aggressive global activities toward control over the past 18 months; it’s staggering. The Afghanistan withdrawal instantly created a circumstance that could lead to a rapid change toward a New World Order. U.S. leadership took a nose-dive in the minds of our enemies and allies. It created a vacuum that would/could be filled and China was ready, willing, and able to do so.
ü We are moving towards an increasingly polarized world.
ü We have forfeited our decades-old military deterrent status.
ü What has commonly been known as the “West” for decades is without a leader.
ü While NATO continues to grow in numbers, it does not appear to be a force to be reckoned with by any adversary beyond Russia.
ü The do-nothing United Nations will remain powerless because of the one-veto power of China and Russia in the UN Security Council.
ü The U.S. must take immediate steps to regain our energy independence or risk being leveraged by the China-led Middle East.
ü This president and this Congress need to take immediate steps to energize our military-industrial complex that can more rapidly refill depleted war reserves.
ü China is executing a plan to control the world and this administration has either chosen to not acknowledge it or we are aware but are clueless as to what to do about it.
ü “Woke warrior” is a contradiction. A woke military is a national security liability.
April 15, 2023
Special Edition
DECLINING U.S. DETERRENCE, INCREASED VULNERABILITY AND OUR FUTURE IN CHINA’S NEW WORLD ORDER.
By: Marvin L. Covault, April 12, 2023
Lt. Gen. US Army retired
ASSERTION:
China wants to control the world, as in, “To exercise authoritative or dominative influence over.” One might even alter this official definition by substituting “and” for “or”.
FACTS BEARING ON THE PROBLEM:
What follows is a potpourri of what I believe to be critical issues associated with China’s long-range strategic plan to control the world. I further believe they are well past the planning stage and at least into phase 3 of execution. This conclusion becomes more obvious when we take a look at what our four existing enemies, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are doing.
CHANGE:
Changes in foreign affairs and foreign relations can be good, advantageous, bad, fast, slow, uplifting, dangerous, etc. If it is a combination of fast and bad, we need to recognize it, admit to it, and then do something about it. The U.S. may already be so far behind the power curve that we cannot save ourselves.
WHAT OUR ENEMIES ARE UP TO:
China’s Achilles' heel has been the availability of natural gas and oil. They currently import 10-12 million barrels of crude oil per day from two major oil sources, Russia and the Middle East. Included in all of their recent foreign relations are actions that will insure a sustained future supply of oil and gas
2001: For decades during the post-WW II Cold War period, China and Russia were at odds with each other over which one was to be the dominant figure in transitioning the world to communism/socialism. Those days concluded in 2001 when China and Russia signed a long-range friendship and cooperation treaty.
2013: China’s Belt and Road Initiative, launched by Xi Jinping, is a multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure program that is intended to link China with more than 100 of the 195 world countries. China has provided funding for roads, railroads, power plants, ports, mining, and energy projects. Some of the projects consist of huge loans to poorer countries that ultimately cannot be paid back to China. China then uses leverage and bartering to gain control over critical natural resources.
CHINA AND RARE EARTH ELEMENTS such as cobalt, nickel, copper, and lithium are essential components in producing renewable energy technology, semiconductors, and other electronics. Access to these resources has never been more important; they will define future economic growth. China has taken the lead in this global “gold rush.” China’s mining companies are merging with other firms, creating a global force in the extraction of rare elements. Additionally, China holds a monopoly in processing the elements with 80% of U.S. refined rare earth elements imports coming from China. For example, it is reported that China controls about 80% of the mineable lithium deposits in the world. So, what happens when the U.S. has 50 million electric vehicles on the road and we are out of lithium for new batteries?
November 2020: There was a signing ceremony in which 15 Asian nations, led by China, agreed to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership which casts China as a champion of globalization and multilateral cooperation in a multi-nation effort towards freer trade and future prosperity. It is the world’s largest free trade bloc. The U.S. is not included.
March 2021: China and Iran signed a strategic cooperation agreement that includes oil and mining rights for China, military cooperation, and China’s $400 billion economic investment. China is Iran’s leading trade partner. This is a significant step in reducing U.S. influence in the Middle East, crippling the U.S. sanctions on Iran and firming up China’s future supply of imported oil.
June 2021: Putin and Xi Jinping announced the extension of the 20-year-old friendship and cooperation treaty.
February 2022: Putin and Xi Jinping signed a new statement that outlines a bold New World Order and a partnership between the two states without any limitations. It openly declares against NATO and its concern over AUKUS, a security partnership between the U.S., Australia, and the United Kingdom. The most crucial element of the joint declaration was their alliance against the U.S. Additionally, they signed a new deal under which Russia will deliver gas to China via the Far Eastern route strengthening their energy cooperation.
June 2022: China’s crude oil imports from Russia soared 55% from a year earlier, surpassing Saudi Arabia as China’s top supplier. This happened despite sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
September 2022: Putin, Xi, and the president of Mongolia agreed to a plan for a new pipeline capable of delivering 50 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia to China via Mongolia.
December 2022: China and Saudi Arabia released a statement agreeing to a range of issues including energy, security, Iran’s nuclear program, the crisis in Yemen, and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
January 2023: Notwithstanding the three-year Covid bump in the road, China’s economy is on track for a resurgence. China’s Gross Domestic Product growth over the last 10 years was 6% or better annually until Covid hit in 2020. Their target GDP growth for 2023 is 5% while defense spending is 7.2%. By the way, the U.S. GDP growth in 2023 is projected to be south of 2%.
March 2023: China and Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, have agreed to stop trading with the U.S. dollar and use their own currencies instead. They will carry out their immense economic dealings without use of the dollar as a medium of exchange. Twenty-three countries representing about 60% of the world’s GDP are setting up swap lines that bypass the U.S. dollar as the medium of exchange. Included in the 23 are Russia, China, India, Germany, France, and the UK.
23 March 2023: China and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement granting Saudi Arabia the status of a “dialogue partner” in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a club of mostly ex-Soviet states as well as other major economic players such as India and Pakistan. This agreement is a step towards full membership for Saudi Arabia. As Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst put it, “The traditional monogamous relationship with the U.S. is now over.”
1984: Iran was designated a State Sponsor of Terrorism. Since 2005 EU, UN, and U.S. sanctions have targeted Iran for violating treaties under which it promised not to pursue nuclear weapons. By 2015 the sanctions resulted in unemployment and high inflation rates thereby devastating Iran’s economy.
When was the last time you saw a product that was “made in Iran?”The point is, Iran’s economic highs and lows are directly tied to the export of oil. It follows that Iran’s support of terrorism and its nuclear program are therefore also tied to oil export income. President Trump tightened down the sanctions on Iran and crushed their economy. Oil exports plummeted from 2.1 million barrels a day in 2017 to 404,000 in 2020. President Biden relaxed the sanctions to get back the failed nuclear agreement with Iran and their oil exports nearly doubled in 2021 and continues to rise every day since.
2016: Russia agreed with Iran to build nuclear power capabilities inside Iran which has obviously been advantageous as their nuclear production capability is now imminent.
March 2021: Iran and China signed a 25-year cooperation agreement that will strengthen their relationship concerning political, strategic, military, and economic components. China has contracts totaling hundreds of billions of dollars in Iran’s gas and oil industry including exclusive rights to several Iranian oil and natural gas fields. It is not lost on China planners that Iran ranks as the fourth-largest reserve of oil and the second-largest reserve of natural gas in the world. Iran has signed on to China’s One Belt and Road program as a key part of China’s geopolitical ambitions in central Asia and the Middle East. They are also linked militarily with China providing advanced systems to include control technology for long-range missile development.
January 2022: Iran, China, and Russia held their third joint naval drills in the northern Indian Ocean. There also continue to be Chinese nuclear experts, scientists, and technicians present in Iran.
20 July 2022: On his first trip abroad since the invasion of Ukraine, Putin visited Iran to, “Strengthen our cooperation on international security issues, making a significant contribution to the settlement of the Syrian conflict.” The same day Iran’s oil ministry signed a $40 billion deal with Russia which includes developing Iranian gas fields and building new gas export pipelines.
1 March 2023: Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Colin Kahl reported to Congress that, “Iran can produce enough fissile material for one nuclear bomb in about 12 days.”
11 March 2023: After years of hostility, China brokered a deal whereby Saudi Arabia and Iran will reestablish relations; reopening embassies in Tehran and Riyadh within the next two months.
February 2023: CIA Director says Russia is offering Iran help with its missile program in exchange for military aid; and says the partnership is, “growing in a very dangerous direction.” Now that Russia is struggling through a war in Ukraine, Iran can reciprocate in their relationship by providing hundreds of attack drones to Russia thereby further strengthening their cooperation.
NORTH KOREA, RECENT HEADLINES:
North Korea has conducted 270 missile launches and nuclear tests since 1984; well over 100 of those since Biden took office.
2018, 2019: President Trump made three trips to Asia to meet with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un. We do not know what Trump said, but nuclear and missile testing stopped. They resumed a month after Biden took office and have continued at a torrid pace since.
In February 2023; North Korea fired four strategic cruise missiles demonstrating its ability to conduct a nuclear counterattack.
9 March 2023: North Korea launched six short-range ballistic missiles; describing their ability to attack military airfields in South Korea.
12 March 2023: While North Korea has been launching ballistic missiles from a submarine since 2016, the latest launch, 12 March 2023, is proof-of-concept of a more capable missile.
2023: North Korea launches a test missile with the range to hit the U.S. The White House says President Biden was briefed on the situation and will continue to consult with allies. OK, and………?
North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal and provocations have raised the urgency for South Korea and Japan to strengthen their defense postures.
China is considered North Korea’s closest ally; they have had a mutual aid and cooperation treaty since 1961. Their relationship declined earlier this century over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. However, relations have been increasingly close since 2018.
U.S./SAUDI ARABIA RELATIONSHIPS THEN AND NOW:
Bilateral agreements, particularly in the energy and security sectors have endured between the U.S. and Saudi for decades. Saudi Arabia is one of the U.S.’s largest trading partners in the Middle East. The U.S. has been instrumental over the decades in organizing, training, and equipping the Saudi military.
The Obama/Biden and now the Biden administration’s bungling of the nuclear issues as they apply to Iran have created a deep mistrust between Saudi Arabia in particular and other Middle East nations in general towards the U.S. They do not want a nuclear Iran and believe Biden has facilitated it.
In 2017, President Trump’s first overseas trip was to Saudi Arabia which was described as, “A pro-American extravaganza” where Trump and the King signed a $110 billion arms deal.
Saudi Arabia is engaged in a war with their southern neighbor, Yemen. The terrorist group, Houthi, engaged the Yemen government forces in 2014 and succeeded in capturing most of the country. The ousted Yemen president asked Saudi Arabia for assistance. The Saudis put together a coalition of nine Middle East nations to assist. During the conflict, the U.S. provided intelligence and logistical support as well as the sale of arms to coalition states. The Houthi terrorist group is sponsored by and equipped by Iran. They routinely attack Saudi oil-producing areas and oil refineries. Because of all that, President Trump put the Houthis on the international terrorist list.
China’s extensive move into the affairs of Middle East countries has been alarmingly rapid and extensive. Why? Because Biden facilitated it. During his 2020 campaign Biden frequently referred to Saudi Arabia as a “pariah” nation.
January 2021: Enter the Biden Administration. They immediately removed the Houthis from the terrorist list and canceled a Saudi order for military equipment needed to fight the Houthis. Biden went on to announce an end to American support for Saudi-led offensive operations against the Houthis. A perfect lesson on how not to treat friends and valued allies.
Additionally, during his 2020 campaign Biden labeled Saudi Arabia a “pariah state” over the murder of U.S.-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Given those underpinnings, Biden’s trip in July 2022 to Saudi Arabia to beg for oil ended up being all about a fist bump and was a national disgrace.
BIDEN AND ISRAEL:
It began with the Obama/Biden administration and has been exacerbated in the Biden administration; that is, they simply abandoned the U.S. decades-old policy of uncompromising support to Israel, our most valued friend, and ally in the Middle East.
March 2023: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was engaged in Israel’s proposed judicial reform. On 23 March, Biden spoke publicly on the issue making it clear that Netanyahu is still not on his schedule for a White House visit, “Not in the near term”, he said. This breaks precedent with every U.S. president for decades.
6 April 2023: Dozens of rockets were fired into Israel from Lebanon and Gaza by Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists. The response from President Biden, as he departed for a long Easter weekend, “My expectation and hope is that this will be closing down sooner than later.” Wow, tough talk from the supposed-to-be leader of the free world and decades-old close and valued ally, Israel. Mr. President, “hope” is not a process.
U.S. LEADERSHIP IN LATIN AMERICA:
March 2023: Honduras recently cut ties with Taiwan and established diplomatic ties with China.
The opposition in Paraguay recently announced that if it wins the elections in April, it will do the same. In the past four years, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Panama have each switched their recognition from Taiwan to China.
March 2022: China has extended its Belt and Road infrastructure investment program into Latin America; there are 26 projects in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. Additionally, China has strengthened its military ties, especially with Venezuela. China has replaced the U.S. as Latin America’s leading trade partner.
This is all happening despite President Biden's 2020 campaign pledge that he would restore American leadership to Latin America and counter China's growing influence there.
8 March 2023: "What concerns me as a Combatant Commander is the myriad of ways in which the PRC is spreading its malign influence, wielding its economic might, and conducting gray zone activities to expand its military and political access and influence.”; testimony by General Laura Jane Richardson, Commander, US Southern Command, to the House Armed Services Committee.
The dominoes in Latin America are falling at an ever-increasing pace while the U.S. remains passively standing on the sidelines, politically and economically, watching as China turns the continent into its subject.
LEADER OF THE FREE WORLD:
The U.S. emerged on the world stage during World War I, that accelerated during WW II and through the Cold War. As a result, for decades the U.S. president has been referred to as, “The leader of the free world.” That title was not ceremonial, it existed because the free world believed it. But President Biden’s actions over the past two years have disappointed and disillusioned world leaders. For example:
ü The embarrassing and unnecessary military/political collapse in Afghanistan.
ü Disrespect for a leader who would instantly squander his nation’s energy independence to make a trite political point.
ü Astonishment that President Biden would willingly and deliberately threaten our national security by opening our borders to millions of unvetted, untested criminals, gang members, terrorists, drug dealers, human traffickers, hundreds of thousands of unaccompanied minors, and millions of common folks with no known skillsets from over 170 countries.
ü Inability to admit to or deal with growing lawlessness across the U.S.
ü Obvious disinterest and/or inability to deal with North Korea’s ramped-up nuclear and long-range missile testing.
ü His inability to speak to difficult and demanding world issues without a prepared script and/or staged Q and A.
ü His propensity to blame every, I mean EVERY, issue that is not going well for the American people on President Trump. No, zero, accountability.
ü And finally, the icing on the cake. The world watched the Russian buildup of an invasion force on the border with Ukraine from October 2021 through 24 February 2022. While China and North Korea refused to condemn the invasion, the remainder of the world thought otherwise. But the shockwave instantaneously hit the world when President Biden, in a rare extemporaneous moment, said, “Russia will be held accountable if it invades. It depends on what it does. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and then we end up fighting about what to do and not do, et cetera.” The world’s interpretation of that statement is, a little invasion will be OK. Biden’s minions moved quickly to issue a what-the-president-meant-to-say statement but the irrevocable damage had been done. Suspicions confirmed: the president of the United States can no longer be trusted or respected as the leader of the free world.
Our allies and enemies alike are wondering who is in charge. There are obvious global doubts about President Biden’s physical and cognitive capacity to deal with the rigorous demands of a “leader of the free world.”
U.S. MILITARY DETERRENCE:
Deterrence is a mindset outside the U.S. Simply stated, our allies trust us to have their back in international affairs and our enemies fear our military capabilities and willingness to take them on.
Here is a summary of an unclassified online U.S. military operation that definitively illustrates deterrence on today’s battlefields and the connection between small unit operations to the military’s most senior leaders.
June 2014: U.S. Launched Operation Inherent Resolve to destroy the Islamic State Group in Iraq and Syria, ISIS. Russia had committed military forces to Syria. The U.S. was allied with Kurdish and Syrian Democratic Forces against ISIS. Russia and the U.S. had opened a communications hotline to avoid direct conflict with each other.
February 2018: During one afternoon a small group of 30 U.S. Special Operations Forces plus their local forces watched a surveillance drone feed as an enemy force of about 500 troops, 27 vehicles, and Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers, about 20 miles away, positioned itself to attack the small U.S. outpost. The Russian element consisted of Wagner Group personnel. Wagner Group is a private military company of mercenaries that operates beyond the law under the control of President Putin. The U.S. higher headquarters in Qatar was alerted and air support was placed on strip alert. At 8:30 p.m. the enemy force moved out and a nearby U.S. ground quick-reaction force launched in support with anti-tank missiles. The enemy opened fire at 10:30. By then, former General Jim Mattis, then Secretary of Defense, was on the hotline with his Russian counterpart who declared the attackers were not Russians. Mattis, later testified before Congress, saying he immediately called the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and told him to take out the enemy force.
Waves of F-22 fighters, F-15E strike fighters, AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, AC-130 gunships, B-52 bombers, MQ-9 Reaper drones, and Marine artillery relentlessly attacked the enemy force. An enemy Russian mercenary survivor later said, “We should never have been there; our leadership messed up. The Americans knew exactly where we were.” At about 1:00 a.m. the surviving enemy force fled the area leaving behind 200-300 KIA. One Syrian soldier at the outpost was wounded. There were no U.S. casualties.
A month later, a group of Syrian fighters and Russian mercenaries began a similar buildup, also near an American outpost. This time when Sec Def called his Russian counterpart the enemy forces immediately dispersed. That is deterrence in action on today’s battlefields in today’s ugly world where enemy countries, led by thugs, only understand power or the lack thereof.
January 2021- April 2023: Within the last two years, the Biden administration has dictated that the U.S. military, as an organization, sign up for diversity, equity, and inclusion, (DEI). This flies in the face of everything a capable military force must be and do. “Equity” is pure poison to any military organization. A new generation of leaders is being DEI indoctrinated. The force can no longer recruit America’s best and brightest. Across the board, military standards are being lowered. Meritocracy, the foundation of every military organization from the squad to Army-level commands, is dying or already dead; mediocracy rules the day and the future is bleak.
August 2021: U.S. deterrence died when Commander in Chief Biden directed the cut-and-run operation from Afghanistan. Our in-country allies were left dumb-founded and in harm’s way from the immediate Taliban takeover. U.S. citizens were left stranded in Afghanistan. Our long-time loyal individual Afghan supporters on the ground were abandoned and left to be hunted down and killed by the Taliban. All of this unfolded on the world stage within a few days.
6 April 2023: The White House released a 12-page after-action review of the Afghanistan withdrawal. A National Security Council spokesperson took questions as the President shuffled off to his helicopter for a long weekend at Camp David. The bottom line is that the Biden Administration, true to form, blamed the whole thing on President Trump. The report actually named Trump 14 times and uses the word “accountability” once. A fact-checked review of key actions tells a very different story. This was, pure and simple, Biden’s withdrawal; here’s why:
ü February 2020: The U.S. negotiated a withdrawal agreement with the Taliban that included many requirements and concessions from both sides. The date set for final withdrawal was 1 May 2021.
ü 2020: Negotiations continued throughout the year with the Taliban continuously failing to meet their end of the agreement.
ü 15 January 2021: U.S. force levels reached 2500 as required by the agreement.
ü 19 February 2021: Biden, “My administration strongly supports the diplomatic process that’s underway and to bring an end to this war that is closing out 20 years.” at that point, Biden owned it, period.
ü 7 March 2021: Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he is “concerned that the security situation will worsen and the Taliban could make rapid territorial gains.” Biden is aware of the tenuous situation.
ü 25 March 2021: Gen. Richard Clarke, commander of the U.S. Special Operations Command, testifies before the Senate Armed Services Committee that “it is clear that the Taliban have not upheld what they said they would do and reduce the violence.” More input to Biden.
ü 14 April 2021: Biden announces that all troops will be removed by 11 September 2021.
ü 18 May 2021 The Defense Department IG reports that during the first three months of 2021, “The Taliban initiated 37% more attacks than during the same period in 2020,”More input to the President.
ü 6 July 2021: The U.S. military has pulled out of Bagram Airfield. Why? Because the command could not simultaneously secure/operate Bagram Airbase and the U.S. Embassy (Biden’s priority for security) in Kabul with only 2,500 troops.
ü 8 July 2021: Biden moves up the timeline for full troop withdrawal to Aug. 31, saying, “The likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.”
ü 6 August 2021: The Taliban takes control of its first province despite the agreement it signed with the U.S.
ü 15 August 2021: Taliban fighters enter the capital; the Afghan president flees the country; the U.S. evacuates the embassy by helicopter.
Note: during the critical days of the collapse, Biden was at Camp David instead of in the White House situation room with his National Security team.
ü 16 August 2021: In a speech to the nation, Biden said, “I do not regret my decision to end America’s warfighting in Afghanistan,” and deflected blame for the government’s swift collapse.
ü 26 August. 2021: 13 U.S. service members were killed by a suicide bomber at the Kabul airport. Why? Because the Bagram Airbase had been closed prematurely to meet troop constraint numbers. All air operations could have/should have been conducted out of a secure Bagram, not the unsecured Kabul airport. At any time during the chaotic early hours of the withdrawal, additional U.S./NATO troops could have/should have been brought in to renew Bagram operations.
ü 31 August.2021: In a speech to the nation, Biden calls the Afghan withdrawal an, “extraordinary success.”
ü 6 April 2023: Following the release of the withdrawal after action review, the White House spokesperson said the administration is “proud” of the Afghanistan withdrawal. Tell that to the families of the 13 dead service members, Mr. President. But the president did not hear that statement because he snuck out of the White House, avoided reporters by not using the South Lawn helipad, motored to Fort McNair, and took his helicopter to Camp David for an extended Easter vacation. Pathetic leadership /accountability.
U.S. VULNERABILITIES:
Given that our deterrent posture has been shattered, that a New World Order led by China is rapidly emerging, that our reliance on decades-old alliances is suspect or nonexistent and, given the status of current U.S. leadership, where does the U.S. stand on the issue of vulnerability? let’s take a look at some of what our enemies may be capable of doing to us.
6 May 2021, CYBER-ATTACK: A cyber-attack, believed to have been initiated in Russia, shut down one of the US’ largest (5,500 miles) pipelines, highlighting heightened concerns over the vulnerability of the nation’s critical infrastructure. The attack shut down the flow of gasoline and jet fuel across the South and up to New York for about a week. This is an example of our vulnerability to cyber-attacks. It was only an inconvenience but was certainly proof-of-concept success for Russia.
Biden’s response: Biden and Putin met a month later at a scheduled international conference where Biden told reporters, “I gave him a list of 16 specific entities defined a critical infrastructure under U.S. policy from the energy sector to our water systems.” This ridiculous response simply raised the question, is everything that is not on the list fair game for attack? A different response might have been a phone call; something like this:
“Vlad, this is Joe. I just shut down your gas and oil pipeline to China. I’m sure you will soon be hearing from our friend Xi. My people tell me that no matter what your techies do, we can keep it down for at least a month. I see three alternatives. One, you do nothing. Two, you retaliate with another cyberattack on the U.S. Keep in mind that we have all of your other pipelines queued up to also be immediately shut down. Or three, you and I can agree, today, that neither of us will ever again initiate a cyberattack on the other. I need your answer by this afternoon. Have a nice day, goodbye.”
China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran all have sophisticated cyber-attack capabilities. Imagine if they ganged up under guidance from China and shut down all of the major gasoline pipelines for a month? We would likely see massive lawlessness and the beginnings of anarchy throughout the nation.
3 December 2022, POWER GRID: I was home in North Carolina when th Le lights went out. We were soon informed by Duke Energy that shooters had taken out two nearby electrical distribution substations leaving about 40,000 residents without electrical power for several days.
How vulnerable is our power grid? At least 6 such attacks occurred across the nation in 2021 and 20 in 2022.
Power Grid Facts: The power grid is a distribution system of power plants, substations, transformers, and power lines with about 55,000 substations like the one near my home in NC. The systems are increasingly decrepit, poorly maintained, and frightfully vulnerable to accidents, disasters, and enemy action including cyber warfare. Most of the system is unguarded. Low-tech in nature, these attacks can be highly organized and professionally executed.
Because the entire grid is so complex, any failure in the system has the possibility of creating a “cascading failure effect”. When that happens, shutdowns can cascade like dominoes, and the entire grid can be subject to shutting down.
How vulnerable are we? Of the 55,000 substations, there are 30 that are most critical for the interconnection of the entire grid. Furthermore, by initiating a coordinated attack and destroying only 9 of those 30 interconnected substations, studies estimate the entire U.S. grid could be down for, “at least 18 months, probably longer.”
Instantly it would not be 2023, it would be like 1823 or perhaps 1723 and we are not prepared for that. Consider this short list of what would no longer be available:
water supply,
telecommunications,
food production and delivery,
fuel extraction, refining, and distribution,
law enforcement,
emergency services,
hospitals, and
the reality that you may never hear from family and loved ones again; ever.
Immediate anarchy would prevail and tens of millions of Americans would be dead in the first month.
Could this happen? Yes, consider just this one scenario: Iran is the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism with access to and some control over most terrorist organizations. Iran’s leadership is morally corrupt and would like nothing more than to achieve their long-term and frequently stated goal of “Death to America.”
The above information leads one to believe that a dozen 3-4-person terrorist teams of marksmen could simultaneously take down the 9 critical substations out of the existing 55,000 and thereby take America into darkness. Where would the terrorist teams come from? They may already be here after coming across our open border. Were the 20 attacks last year simply a series of proof-of-concept operations?
2023, UNPREPARED FOR WAR:
Results from recent war-game simulations with the U.S. vs China in the South China Sea, conclude the U.S. would run out of some types of critical guided missiles within a week. This is all unclassified information available to anyone including China.
Military equipment and munitions to Ukraine have reduced war reserves to such dangerously low levels that, under current production capabilities, some will not be renewed for 5-8 years. For example, there is one U.S. production facility for 155mm howitzer shells and The U.S. is capable of producing about 14,000 per month. On average Ukraine is firing 7,700 each day. You do the math.
Recent testimony in a Congressional committee revealed that the U.S. is currently dependent on imports of certain rare metals from China and Russia for the production of bullets, explosives, nuclear weapons, and an array of military equipment. For example, there is no domestic mine for antimony, a rare metal required in the production of ammunition. The U.S. currently relies almost entirely on China for antimony to be able to produce a single bullet.
ENERGY DEPENDENCE:
3 April 2023: Saudi-led oil producers announced they will cut oil production by one million barrels a day beginning in May. Since Biden’s assault on the U.S. fossil-fuel production, we are continuously vulnerable to oil production abroad. This is a serious national security issue that the president will not even address.
STRATEGIC OIL RESERVES:
Strategic reserves are dangerously low. One year ago, we had 577 million barrels and today it is 371 million; down 36% in one year. Why? Biden sold off reserves to reduce U.S. gas prices before the 2022 election. The U.S. consumption rate is about 20 million barrels per day. Another serious national security issue.
ONE OF MANY EXAMPLES OF OUR OVER-DEPENDENCE ON CHINA:
Medicine: Chinese firms supply more than 90% of U.S. antibiotics, and 70% of Tylenol and recent studies found that about 80% of the basic ingredients in U.S.-produced drugs come from China. Imagine a call from Xi Jinping to Biden: “ I have just ordered the cancelation of all shipments of pharmaceuticals to the U.S. unless you do (or don’t do) “X”. I need to know your decision this afternoon.” You get the picture, that’s leverage that would impact the life of every American. Leverage we do not have.
LEADERSHIP WEAKNESS:
28 January 2023: The Chinese spy balloon entered Alaska air space, collected data for seven days, and was shot down. What did Biden do? Nothing.
14 March 2023: A Russian fighter jet shot down a U.S. drone over the Black Sea. What did Biden do? Nothing.
SOUTH CHINA SEA:
1988: I was the deputy plans officer for the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions at U.S. Pacific Command Headquarters in Hawaii. I recall discussions about and seeing photos of habitable shacks on stilts being placed on reefs in the South China Sea by the Chinese. They would raise a flag, somehow provide provisions to the inhabitants and declare it was Chinese sovereign territory. Today structures at three of the man-made islands have been fully militarized with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment, and long runways for fighter jets to be capable of controlling any nation utilizing those shipping lanes. It’s important to note that one-third of all global shipping transits the South China Sea lanes. Additionally, Japan and South Korea together import about 5 million barrels of oil per day on that sea lane which can now be controlled by China. Without massive oil imports our two principal allies in that region, Japan and Korea, would be powerless within a few weeks. Another example of control resulted from brilliant long-range strategic planning and execution by China.
CHINA’S NAVAL FORCES:
2023: To control the world, China needs a world-class navy. In the past few years, China has concentrated on building modern surface combatants, submarines, aircraft carriers, fighter jets, amphibious assault ships, ballistic nuclear missile submarines, large coast guard cutters, and polar icebreakers. Its Navy has more than tripled in size in only two decades and has become the world’s largest naval force, and there is no end in sight.
ELECCTROMAGNETIC PULSE (EMP):
An EMP occurs naturally in space but can also be a burst of electromagnetic energy produced by a nuclear explosion in the atmosphere. It is the ultimate weapon capable of completely destroying America in seconds. The size of the nuclear weapon and the altitude at which it is detonated determines the size of the destruction area. We will not see any damage but the electronic pulse will simply take out the electric grid and every object that has an electric component. For example, every vehicle would die in place and never move again. Every gadget in our homes would be worthless. No communications, water pumps, transportation, production, emergency services, nothing would work. U.S. nuclear retaliation would not be possible. Lawlessness would prevail; ammunition would become the operative currency. We would be a nation of hunter-gatherers and within weeks die by the tens of millions. Only a few would survive.
China and Russia have this capability. North Korea may have it. Iran wants it.
CONCLUSIONS:
Organizations that are great long-range strategic planners, like China, also tend towards agility and are capable of capitalizing on an unforeseen occurrence and accelerating their timeline to achieve their end state. That unforeseen occurrence was the self-inflicted wound suffered by the U.S.’ despicable cut-and-run from Afghanistan in August 2021. Look at China’s aggressive global activities toward control over the past 18 months; it’s staggering. The Afghanistan withdrawal instantly created a circumstance that could lead to a rapid change toward a New World Order. U.S. leadership took a nose-dive in the minds of our enemies and allies. It created a vacuum that would/could be filled and China was ready, willing, and able to do so.
ü We are moving towards an increasingly polarized world.
ü We have forfeited our decades-old military deterrent status.
ü What has commonly been known as the “West” for decades is without a leader.
ü While NATO continues to grow in numbers, it does not appear to be a force to be reckoned with by any adversary beyond Russia.
ü The do-nothing United Nations will remain powerless because of the one-veto power of China and Russia in the UN Security Council.
ü The U.S. must take immediate steps to regain our energy independence or risk being leveraged by the China-led Middle East.
ü This president and this Congress need to take immediate steps to energize our military-industrial complex that can more rapidly refill depleted war reserves.
ü China is executing a plan to control the world and this administration has either chosen to not acknowledge it or we are aware but are clueless as to what to do about it.
ü “Woke warrior” is a contradiction. A woke military is a national security liability.