Up to 30% of Junket VIP will switch to premium mass

Up to 30% of Junket VIP will switch to premium mass Dec 15, 2021 4:43:35 GMT -5

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Post by Blitz on Dec 15, 2021 4:43:35 GMT -5

Up to 30% of Macau junket business to switch to premium mass: Bernstein

by Ben Blaschke Wed 15 Dec 2021 at 06:50
www.asgam.com/index.php/2021/12/15/up-to-30-of-macau-junket-business-to-switch-to-premium-mass-bernstein/

https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2021/12/15/up-to-30-of-macau-junket-business-to-switch-to-premium-mass-bernstein/

The decline of Macau’s junket sector is seen as a long-term positive for the stability of the local gaming industry, with a decent chunk of former junket players likely to convert to direct VIP and premium mass, according to brokerage Bernstein.

In a Wednesday note, Bernstein analysts Vitaly Umansky and Kelsey Zhu estimate that between 15% and 30% of junket VIP players will return via the more lucrative premium mass segment while others will migrate to direct VIP, allowing operators to cut out the middle-man.

“As junket business goes away, some players may well shift and we forecast that between 15% to 30% of junket VIP business could shift back to premium direct and premium mass,” they wrote.

“There will also be some negative impact on premium mass from the disappearance of junkets – we estimate between 10% and 25% of ultra-premium mass and 5% to 10% of premium mass may disappear due to junket liquidity. “However, some of the junket business will in all likelihood migrate to premium direct while some segments may see some negative impact from the disappearance of junket liquidity.”

The analysts note that while VIP contributed 39% of GGR in 2019, EBITDA contribution was less than 15%.

As such, the absence of junkets will likely see GGR return to between 69% and 79% of 2019 levels, or between US$25.1 billion and US$28.8 billion, post-recovery. This, however, does not take into account either pent-up demand or capacity expansion via IR openings (Grand Lisboa Palace), upgrades (The Londoner Macao) and expansions (Galaxy Phases 3 and 4).

“Once post-COVID recovery materializes, we expect a less volatile gaming industry with better margin potential (albeit with lower revenue),” the analysts state.

“For Macau, the future of the gaming industry is largely in the Mass and Premium Mass recovery. A shrinking junket business is good for the stability and future opportunity in Macau.”

Up to 30% of Junket VIP will switch to premium mass Dec 15, 2021 4:45:19 GMT -5

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Post by Blitz on Dec 15, 2021 4:45:19 GMT -5

Junkets can survive without Chinese players: Davis Fong

by Newsdesk Wed 15 Dec 2021 at 16:51
www.asgam.com/index.php/2021/12/15/junkets-can-survive-without-chinese-players-davis-fong/

Macau gaming professor and former lawmaker Davis Fong says the city’s junket operators can not only survive but still flourish by shifting their focus away from mainland Chinese customers and towards Hong Kong and Southeast Asia.

Speaking to media at the closing ceremony of the Macau government Responsible Gambling Promotions for 2021 at the Macau Science Centre, Fong – Professor in Integrated Resort and Tourism Management and Director of Institute for the Study of Commercial Gaming at the University of Macau – said it was up to the junket industry to adapt to recent challenges from China’s crackdown on cross-border gambling.

The junket sector is currently in the crossroads after Macau’s dominant junket operator, Suncity Group, closed its VIP rooms and ultimately shut down its business earlier this month following the arrest of its CEO, Alvin Chau.

“With these changes, our gaming services will depend on exportation, which means [sourcing] clients from different regions,” Fong said.

“Traditionally some casinos and VIP rooms have targeted clients from mainland China to promote their business, but this is inconsistent with the legal system.

“But I don’t agree that we are at the phase of remodelling our structure. VIP rooms existed before the handover [of Macau from Portugal back to China in 1999]. I remember during that decade there were many clients from Southeast Asia, including Japanese, Malaysian, [Thai and] Taiwanese.

“So I think in the future, according to the change of rules, VIP rooms must make a suitable adjustment. We should not forget Southeast Asian clients just because we focused more on mainland China after the handover.”

Short term, with COVID-19 keeping the borders of China and its two SARs closed to the world, Fong believes Macau should look to Hong Kong to fill the void.

“Hong Kong clients have always been an important client source,” he said. “Before then handover, 7 million people came to Macau from Hong Kong each year but with our marketing more focused on mainland China that has dropped to 5 million. Now we have a chance to use our old marketing, so when the border [with Hong Kong] opens [from 19 December], we move forward step by step, absorbing more Hong Kong clients.

“This is for the short term. For the middle term, we hope with vaccination that next year we can have international tourism.”

Speaking more broadly on what 2022 might hold for the Macau gaming industry, Fong said there has been a clear correlation between gross gaming number and visitation. When visitor numbers grow, he says, so will GGR.

“Our tourist numbers are the main factor in driving the GGR,” he said.