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Post by CardsFan on Feb 9, 2021 22:37:39 GMT -5
Is exiting bankruptcy and going back to roots focusing on Nat gas. Anyone else thinking about placing a bet on it?
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Post by pyromancer157 on Feb 9, 2021 22:53:08 GMT -5
Please God No! Remember Aubrey Mcclendon (founder/CEO) drove himself into a bridge, pending a federal grand jury indictment...
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Post by bjspokanimal on Feb 9, 2021 22:57:11 GMT -5
No.
In any turnaround situation, which Chesapeke potentially could be, I prefer to limit investment
candidate(s) to consideration of the most dominant and financially healthy company(s) in an
industry that, like said company(s), is substantially beaten down but historically cyclical with
a likelihood of such cycles to reoccur.
Chesapeke, and its industry, meet neither of these criteria, IMHO.
LVS in early 2009 and Transocean last year were 2 examples of companies that met those
criteria for me. While that contrarian philosophy is my own and may not be yours, I will say
that its one that I've adopted from numerous, renowned contrarian activist investors that
you're undoubtedly familiar with.
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Post by CardsFan on Feb 9, 2021 23:05:25 GMT -5
Pyro,
I remember. But he doesn’t run it anymore and at one point they had great nat gas assets. Now that they are free of debt... I’m just doing some due diligence. I’ve mostly put new funds into Alt energy names of late. But I’m planning on one last super spike for old school energy, and I keep thinking Chesapeake could be a good trade. Not investment mind you, but trade. But I haven’t decided one way or other yet.
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Post by CardsFan on Feb 9, 2021 23:17:18 GMT -5
No. In any turnaround situation, which Chesapeke potentially could be, I prefer to limit investment candidate(s) to consideration of the most dominant and financially healthy company(s) in an industry that, like said company(s), is substantially beaten down but historically cyclical with a likelihood of such cycles to reoccur. Chesapeke, and its industry, meet neither of these criteria, IMHO. LVS in early 2009 and Transocean last year were 2 examples of companies that met those criteria for me. While that contrarian philosophy is my own and may not be yours, I will say that its one that I've adopted from numerous, renouned contrarian activist investors that you're undoubtedly familiar with. Transocean is a different bet though, for three reasons. 1. You’re betting on different part of energy chain (drill equipment) 2. It’s a bet on offshore energy preference 3. It’s a bet on oil Your thesis May very well play out, if I were to bet a small wager on Chesapeake, it’s a specific bet on nat gas alone, and their strategically located basins. Let’s say we were debating pipeline guys. Biden’s policy’s will increase value for all major pipeline operators. Well, Kinder Morgan has higher percentage of at gas assets, so if I add to that one, it’s a specific bet on nat gas rally, not to mention KMI having easier time converting its pipes to hydrogen transport, which I know is going to happen. I own all three major pipe plays and have for years. And I haven’t really wanted to increase stakes in any of them. But I am thinking KMI May be most protected in terms of hydrogen shifts, from chemistry stuff I’ve studied, versus guys who are more oil heavy. im likely not buying Chesapeake, I’m just re-evaluating all energy assets I own and determining what I want to sell when we get the super spike, what I want to hold after, in terms of whether I think said companies can transition to alt fuels, and whether any names could be ripe for a quick trade. Chesapeake strikes me as very tradeable... for folks who who aren’t looking long term |
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Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 10, 2021 1:43:50 GMT -5
Reply
Chesapeke's Aubrey Mcclendon (founder/CEO) was a charismatic CEO who tried to acquire enough of the company as he wanted to be in total control.
I bought it in the low teens decades ago and sold it out last year at a huge loss. He began buying the stock in the teens and all the way up to the $70's and then it collapsed and the investigations began.
Don't intend on buying the company.
Good Luck!
RIP Aubrey!
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Post by Blitz on Feb 10, 2021 8:45:59 GMT -5
Is exiting bankruptcy and going back to roots focusing on Nat gas. Anyone else thinking about placing a bet on it? Given the price now and over the last 5 years, I don't see it as a profitable investment thesis. I would add... when new oil drilling begins again, I predict the supply of NatGas will go up driving down the price... I mean much of the NatGas supply gets flared off, meaning it's more profitable to just burn it off. markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/natural-gas-price |
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Chesapeke
Feb 10, 2021 17:15:08 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by birdnest on Feb 10, 2021 17:15:08 GMT -5
I have been in and out of this stock for years. Long story short... I lose my ass on it, so I have a really bad taste in my mouth.
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