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RIG
May 8, 2020 12:17:55 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on May 8, 2020 12:17:55 GMT -5
On CNBC TV: Rig count the lowest since Sept. 2009
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RIG
May 8, 2020 16:16:40 GMT -5
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Post by birdnest on May 8, 2020 16:16:40 GMT -5
It’s great to see this stock near $1.40.... A little more and I’ll actually break even...
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RIG
May 8, 2020 17:55:42 GMT -5
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Post by bjspokanimal on May 8, 2020 17:55:42 GMT -5
On CNBC TV: Rig count the lowest since Sept. 2009 Saw this. Baker Hughes reports rig counts every week. Here's a CME recap: www.cmegroup.com/education/events/econoday/2020/05/feed509300.htmlImportantly, the reduction is hugely slanted toward land-based rigs and, of those, heavily slanted toward shale drilling. Companies are cutting their exploration budgets where oil is found quickly and inexpensively with wells that deplete quickly, and that's shale. Large, offshore projects in deep water that are geared toward tapping large resevoirs that will begin producing a year or more from today are the ones that E&P companies are terminating the least. Transocean stated that while they're seeing virtually no "cancellations" as of March 31st, they are seeing companies stretch out their development programs in order to delay some costs. Transocean will begin to see problems more if oil prices stay under $40-$50 by the end of summer. Oil has the best chance of heading back toward that price range if production declines enough to begin matching up with demand again. This article indicates the magnitude of production cuts: oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Oil-Companies-Are-Cutting-Production-Much-Faster-Than-Expected.htmlMake sure to discern between companies' production cuts and their exploration cuts. Almost all companies have paused their land-based exploration activities but oil wells are shut in or not depending on their economics. "Stripper" wells that produce 5 to 30 barrels a day lose money at these prices but higher producing wells near distribution hubs can sometimes cover fixed costs at $25 to $30 and will keep running IF they can secure storage or buyers. Importantly, wells that are shut-in (eg: turned off) often have problems when they're re-activated and need workovers. That's especially true in shale, where fracked formations degrade more when oil isn't flowing. Also, companies also slash "well stimulation" procedures at times like this. Thus, producing wells that are declining will continue to decline while used rather than being stimulated to slow the decline. So, current production will be less production once prices rise and impact the ability to ramp production even when shut-in wells are taken into account.
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Post by halmorris on May 15, 2020 4:28:13 GMT -5
Play RIG rescentley from $1 to $1.60, Thank you Guys !!!
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RIG
May 18, 2020 12:55:09 GMT -5
Post by bjspokanimal on May 18, 2020 12:55:09 GMT -5
A couple of negative "Motley Fool" articles mentioned Transocean. In both articles, they talk about oil-related companies that are flirting with bankruptcy and in each one, Transocean seems to be the healthiest among them with the insolvency danger expressed as a 2021 issue rather than as a more immediate concern. Here are the links: www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/17/5-experts-predict-the-next-oil-stocks-that-could-g.aspxwww.fool.com/investing/2020/05/16/the-oil-stock-subsector-that-turned-10000-into-77.aspx?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&yptr=yahooWhen reading both articles, I got the sense that the author covering RIG had viewed the Q1 results, but hadn't attended the corresponding conference call. That made for some glaring discrepancies (which is typical of Motley Fool articles, since their authors are "pundits", and not "analysts"). For example, in the top article above, the author adds up the in-and-out cash flows through the end of 2021 and has Transocean sitting at $800 million in cash with a fully-drawn revolver. RIG's CFO, on the other hand, stated that he saw no need for the company to tap the revolver between now and 2021. I think the Motley Fool guy's screw-up was on cap-ex, but there's also no cash-flow implied from the new-builds, the first of which is likely to secure the highest dayrate in the industry over a 5-year contract. Like virtually all Motley Fool articles, these mostly looked back and extrapolated the future as an extension of the past. That leaves out prevailing trends, one of which is that U.S. shale is shutting down all over the place while RIG's contracts are being stretched, but not cancelled. That reality is very contrary to the shale-vs-offshore analogy made in the 2nd article, which is that despite the trends that existed through the end of 2019, current reaction to the oil price crash is almost 180 degrees the opposite of pre-2020 trends. The stretched-but-not-cancelled issue arose in the conference call but not the Q1 earnings report. So, it appears that the Motley Fool assumed contract cancellations on par with other offshore drillers, whereas Transocean's contracts typically have cancellation penalties that make it somewhat prohibitive for contracting E&P companies to do so in all but the most dire of industry conditions... Industry conditions that appear unlikely with oil prices rebounding into the $30s and China reporting that it's oil consumption is back to 2019 levels. That's not to say there isn't danger. There's always danger with contrarian plays in challenged, leveraged industries like this one. But these self-described "experts" are far from it, as those of us who've watched Travis Hoyum writing about LVS are well aware. Bottom line: Motley Fool's articles confirm their track record as a "contrarian" indicator... ... I've made a lot of money over the years doing what they suggested I not do.
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RIG
Jun 1, 2020 7:11:42 GMT -5
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Post by birdnest on Jun 1, 2020 7:11:42 GMT -5
With oil rebounding from the lows, I thought we would see more upward trend in RIG. I’m surprised it’s still sitting around $1.30ish.
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RIG
Jun 1, 2020 10:56:38 GMT -5
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Post by Blitz on Jun 1, 2020 10:56:38 GMT -5
With oil rebounding from the lows, I thought we would see more upward trend in RIG. I’m surprised it’s still sitting around $1.30ish. I did too but it went up from around .80 cents to $1.60ish. So, some selling pressure is understandable. Some short covering drove it up I’m sure.
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RIG
Jun 2, 2020 11:28:16 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2020 11:28:16 GMT -5
Bloomberg TV: Brent at $39.33 up $1.01 pushing RIG up $0.04 to $1.43
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RIG
Jun 2, 2020 15:08:34 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2020 15:08:34 GMT -5
Rig closed up $0.035, would have thought it would have closed up a lot higher based on what Brent finished at. Rig was up $0.055 with 10 minutes before the matket closed and finished up only $0.035 so there must have been some strong selling going into the market close.
Bloomberg: Brent Closed at $39.60 up $1.28, very strong.
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RIG
Jun 2, 2020 20:38:20 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2020 20:38:20 GMT -5
Bloomberg TV: Brent crossed $40 at $40.40 this evening
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RIG
Jun 4, 2020 9:18:47 GMT -5
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Post by redbullnvodka on Jun 4, 2020 9:18:47 GMT -5
RIG making a nice move this morning...
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RIG
Jun 4, 2020 13:42:40 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2020 13:42:40 GMT -5
Brent crossed $40 today, for the second time in a week, at $40.12. Rigs high of the day so far was $1.66 www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil
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RIG
Jun 5, 2020 5:26:37 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2020 5:26:37 GMT -5
Rig at $1.80 pre market, Hi was $1.81
Brent at $41.25 currently
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RIG
Jun 5, 2020 6:25:35 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2020 6:25:35 GMT -5
Pre-market Brent at $41.20 currently up $1.37
Rig trading between $2.05 and $2.13
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RIG
Jun 5, 2020 14:40:03 GMT -5
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Post by birdnest on Jun 5, 2020 14:40:03 GMT -5
Wow, great trade for me and all of you! I was trying to sleep when it opened around $2.25 and my sell didn’t go through because I didn’t have market price instead I had limit. It actually made me over $600 more because I sold .30 higher. Today I did sell 1/3 RIG, 1/3 LVS and 1/3 Wynn today. I’ve sold more today then the pass 2 years. Good luck all, hope next weeks is good too.
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RIG
Jun 6, 2020 17:07:11 GMT -5
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Post by bjspokanimal on Jun 6, 2020 17:07:11 GMT -5
Question for birdnest: When LVS first jumped from $1.50/share to $3.00/share back in march of 2009, were you selling it after it surged?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2020 21:21:30 GMT -5
Let's hope bird... replies with a big NO.
I started buying LVS from $9 down to $2.20 (my lowest buy) and kept the stock. I looked at the debt, think it was $14B, ouch!.
Remembered LVS was trading around $150 and Wynn $175 before the crash and that a Billionaire ran LVS, those are the 2 reasons I kept LVS.
As the market kept crashing I also bought biotech stock HGSI at $2.25, a takeover canidate, eventually it was taken over. it went as high as $34, I rode it all the way down to $14 and sold.
At the same time, for some reason, don't remember why, I was watching MLCO on level 2 as it started trading blocks of 25,000 shares for an hour or two, I figured something was going on, didn't know if it was good or bad, didn't know much about MLCO except that it was a casino stock run by a HO. Bought a ton of the stock at $6.95, sold it at $25 within 6 months MLCO hit $45.
I figured if I was ever going to have a lot of money, this is the time to invest/gamble. I put every thing I had into those 3 stocks + heavy margin, I went all in.
As it turns out all 3 were big winners and I made a lot of money, more then I would ever need coming from a middle class family. i've never been a big spender. Not being a big spender at a younger age I missed out on alot of the good life, now i'm older and wouln't enjoy what I spend my money on as much.
I had just enough knowledge to pick 3 POTENTIALLY huge stock winners & got very, very, very, very, very very, very, very, very ....... lucky, as I INVESTED/GAMBLED all the money I had ++++ heavy margin and went positive 3 for 3, now that's extremely lucky.
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Following the same idea of investing I was waiting for the next market crash and it happened or is going to happen this year, i'm guessing. I missed the March low, and was home watching CNBC when the Dow went down 3,000 points, I didn't buy anything because I was waiting for at least a 35% drop in the Dow. I'm still waiting for a bigger crash but missed the fact that a 35% crash of the Dow wasn't necessary all I needed was to find individual stocks that went down more then they should have and were unreasonably punished. During the 3,000 point crash there were plenty of stocks that were punished unnecessarily, I missed them all.
So far, this year, I followed Icahn into Hertz. Icahn invested about $1.5B purchasing the stock at $6, $7, & $8, I believe. Icahn sold all his shares at $0.72 loosing well over $1B. I bought HTZ at $3.51 and sold at $1.20 when they announced Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Friday Hertz hit $4??? Can't figure out why with $19B to $25B in debt other then shorts were covering.
Since I already made more money then I will ever need i'm not using margin and am not going all in as I did when the market crashed last time.
I was looking for some oil related stocks as oil went negative last month and again I missed almost all of them and settled on RIG at $0.97 because of its low price. Oil went negative and if you wanted to buy a barrel of oil they would pay you to take it away. WHAT, pay me and I keep the oil! In about 1 month Oil went negative to about $40, don't anyone ever tell me the markets aren't rigged (play on words).
When I invested in HTZ and Rig I put money in both thinking I would loose all my money. I thought HTZ by far would be the best bet, I was wrong again.
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My investing theme now is to wait for a market down turn and look for stocks that get unresonably punished, not rocket science. At my age this will probably be the last time I see a major market sell off, or I may get lucky and see one more, hopefully my mental facilities will still be in tact. Basically it took my life from age 19 till now to figure out an investing/gambling technique that works for me. I learned you don't have to have a major position in the stock market every day and that you should put the most money in the stock market during a market crash, again not rocket science, buy when others are selling and the sky is falling, one more time not rocket science. BUY AND HOLD stocks, DO NOT TRADE, these days preferably technology and internet stocks, something I haven't been doing.
From my mid twenties I always look at the stock market as the biggest casino in the world.
That's what has worked for me, that's my story and i'm sticking to it.
My biggest regrets:
Selling 10,000 shares of Apple at $68 that I bought at $58 in June 2006. The I phone just came out and Blackberry was king, I didn't think the iphone had a chance, wrong again. What I believe happened is that Apple used to give schools free Apple computers and those kids when they grew up stayed with Apple and chose the iphone over the Blackberry. After a 7 for 1 split it would have been worth $23M, big OUCH!!, .
Apple's stock has split four times since the company went public. The stock split on a 7-for-1 basis on June 9, 2014 and split on a 2-for-1 basis on February 28, 2005, June 21, 2000, and June 16, 1987.
Bought Google at the open on IPO day, 10,000 shares at $105, that 1 million is $14= Million today
That's my horror story and that's why I say BUY AND HOLD & DON'T TRADE.
I'm sure others have similar type stories, could have, should have.
AS I WAS TYPING THIS I LOST PART OF WHAT I WROTE AND CAN'T SEEM TO CORRECT IT, SO PLEASE EXCUSE ANYTHING THAT LOOKS MISPLACED the Apple story is NOT miplaced.
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Post by birdnest on Jun 6, 2020 22:38:12 GMT -5
No I didn’t sell any LVS until $70 5-6 years ago - but I bought RIG with Wynn on margin so I wanted to sell 1/3 while I was money ahead.
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RIG
Jun 7, 2020 20:53:47 GMT -5
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Post by CardsFan on Jun 7, 2020 20:53:47 GMT -5
Mr. Taxxx, Very cool story and I can only hope to be that lucky. I perfectly timed the March lows with a cash war chest I'd been building but I didn't have the cajoones to go 'all in', let alone margin. I am way up on almost everything, but I'll always have thoughts of 'what could have been.' I invested 50% of my spare capital thinking we could go lower. I still think this recovery is divorced from economic fundamentals, but at the end of the day, if the market keeps going up, so be it. I'll take my 50% profits and be happy. I just wish FortuneFormula was here. I picked up quite a few 5G/Medtech names in March, which i know was sort of his thing. I didn't add any more energy exposure except Valero. Picked it up 25 cents from when it bottomed. I don't recall it's yield but it was ridiculous. Something like 12% or more. Sucker is already up 70% I keep thinking, if the casinos every get back to pre-COVID levels, I'll be LOL-ing a year from now. Someone on this board used to always joke about Dom Perignon and lobster. I don't know who it was but maybe I'll join the guy at an LVS retreat
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2020 3:25:04 GMT -5
ry...The lobster, Filet Mignon, and Dom was me, I haven't had the use of it lately and don't see me using it any time soon as I think there will be a big market downturn coming.
Very Nice buy with Valero and the market is definately divorced from economic reality
Virtually no income and LVS is over $50, ERI at $45 from a low in the singe digits after buying or looking to by Caeasr's a troubled co. with lots of debt..
Virtually no income for LVS and a suspended dividend the stock should be in the $20 or $30 range not $50 Casinos opening with social distanceing so probably 1/2 of the gamling happening so 1/2 of the revenue Restaurants, casinos other co. 1/2 full due to Social distancing With Social distancing how will cos. show profits when under normal codnition busnisses were lucky to show a profit. We will be wearing masks for the forseable future etc. Bla Bla Bla
The market should be declining not going up by all measures
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RIG
Jun 8, 2020 5:32:22 GMT -5
Post by CardsFan on Jun 8, 2020 5:32:22 GMT -5
ry...The lobster, Filet Mignon, and Dom was me, I haven't had the use of it lately and don't see me using it any time soon as I think there will be a big market downture coming. Very Nice buy with Valero and the market is definately divorced from economic reality Virtually no income and LVS is over $50, ERI at $45 from a low in the singe digits after buying or looking to by Caeasr's a troubled co. with lots of debt.. Virtually no income for LVS and a suspended dividend the stock should be in the $20 or $30 range not $50 Casinos opening with social distanceing so probably 1/2 of the gamling happening so 1/2 of the revenue Restaurants, casinos other co. 1/2 full due to Social distancing With Social distancing how will cos. show profits when under normal codnition busnisses were lucky to show a profit. We will be wearing masks for the forseable future etc. Bla Bla Bla The market should be declining not going up by all measures So... I'm not a technical analysis guy but Tom Lee, over at Fundstrat, has been right about the last 4 market moves. It's scary. He's predicting another 10-20% higher before we finally pull back so I reigned in some planned profit-taking and deferred a few sells until we get another 5-10%.
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RIG
Jun 8, 2020 6:36:33 GMT -5
Post by Blitz on Jun 8, 2020 6:36:33 GMT -5
It has been an almost perfect storm for a low revenue stock market.
1. Essentially zero interest rates, so nowhere else to put your money and get a return. 2. A Fed that has your back and the US Treasury is issuing free loans. 3. Stimulus checks with some making more than before the lockdown via a $600/wk government kicker over and above unemployment. 4. People on lockdown, 100M not participating in the labor force with zero entertainment outlets... the stock market becomes a casino. 5. Zero commissions on trades that can be done on your smartphone... mom and pop traders can buy and sell 1, 5, 10, 20, shares at a time of latest hot stock.
There are other reasons too, but this will help folks think about what's going on behind the numbers as the pros scratch their heads...
There is also a natural decline for these type of virus borne health issues in the Summer...
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RIG
Jun 8, 2020 8:19:04 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2020 8:19:04 GMT -5
rya... Tom Lee has been positive on the market for a very long time and he has been right. Personally i'm baffled and would like to know where he gets his info from. Maybe he gets his info from blitz, see he post directly above of some of the reasons the market has been moving higher.
Most of the reasons for the market rise blitz mentioned above will soon expire, the what happens?
However, IMO I can see a downturn coming as companies start reporting less revenue and less profits due to the closures, social distancing etc.
Cramers is on CNBC this morning wondering why certain stocks keep on going up and is asking where are the sellers.
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RIG
Jun 8, 2020 9:38:00 GMT -5
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Post by chambahz on Jun 8, 2020 9:38:00 GMT -5
From what I’ve been reading recently, the markets are simply over-priced. Recently, this is due to a better than expected employment report. Opinion is that it’s a bit of a false positive, as a large number of people reported being employed, due to companies hiring them back (paid to stay at home) as a condition of receiving corporate government bailout money. I’ve always chuckled when anyone has “1 good reason” as to why the market is doing whatever it’s doing, but this one seems to make the most sense to me.
Also in agreement with comments above, though I’ve always been of the understanding that it’s institutional money that affects the markets, and not the individual investors. I’d love to know how much the individuals really move a stock price. Certainly makes sense that many people sitting at home are trying to make money in this current market where nobody can make a bad trade presently.
As an aside, a friend of a friend has just reported earning a small fortune in the markets recently. (7 figures) He’s cashed out and has no interest in investing more presently. I don’t know him well enough to reach out directly to ask his opinion, but hearing that makes me feel much more comfortable, sitting 100% in cash right now, watching from the sidelines.
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RIG
Jun 8, 2020 9:53:07 GMT -5
Post by Blitz on Jun 8, 2020 9:53:07 GMT -5
I've been mostly wrong regarding the recovery... so far. The buffet was wrong for 2 years then got it right and made billions... but had to be patient.
Airlines, cruise lines, and casinos going up at these rates are just mind-boggling.
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