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Chk
Nov 12, 2019 7:51:10 GMT -5
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Post by birdnest on Nov 12, 2019 7:51:10 GMT -5
Anyone else jump into this dog over the pass couple days? It reminds me a lot like Sdrl. I jumped in yesterday....
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Post by Blitz on Nov 12, 2019 8:36:01 GMT -5
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Chk
Nov 12, 2019 8:58:10 GMT -5
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Post by CardsFan on Nov 12, 2019 8:58:10 GMT -5
Anyone else jump into this dog over the pass couple days? It reminds me a lot like Sdrl. I jumped in yesterday.... I thought about it when I saw its insiders purchase some shares, but when i realized just how small their transactions were i said, "no thanks." The MLPs they supply have really sold off, that also tells me there is booku risk. Too many other oil names to day trade.
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Chk
Nov 12, 2019 13:29:22 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2019 13:29:22 GMT -5
Once a company files "ongoing concern" paperwork.....they're like scrubbing bubbles circling the draaaaaiiiin.
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Chk
Nov 12, 2019 15:21:31 GMT -5
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Post by birdnest on Nov 12, 2019 15:21:31 GMT -5
My timing is unbelievable......
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Chk
Dec 4, 2019 19:44:55 GMT -5
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Post by birdnest on Dec 4, 2019 19:44:55 GMT -5
Anyone here buying any CHK? Bought more of this dog today....
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2019 19:50:07 GMT -5
Damn Bird, at these levels you can probably get enough shares to go "activist" on 'em!
I was watching to see if Jerry Jones was going to steal it but when he didn't and I saw they got another big loan today, here was my reaction! All I can think of is that those banks plan on ending up with the assets after sticking it to the original debt holders somehow.
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Chk
Dec 4, 2019 20:09:12 GMT -5
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Post by birdnest on Dec 4, 2019 20:09:12 GMT -5
Hahahah. Yeah I agree but I’m in at .85 so just to make a buck instead of lose a buck. I did the same things with sdrl...... ouch.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2019 20:13:52 GMT -5
Hahahah. Yeah I agree but I’m in at .85 so just to make a buck instead of lose a buck. I did the same things with sdrl...... ouch. Well, as the old saying goes.....on a losing position you can do one of two things:
Buy your way out or cry your way out!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2019 21:15:41 GMT -5
I bought it way back when at $4, I recently bought and tripled my shares to bring my cost down.
Their attempting to sell some acerage for $1B, I believe a pro football team owner was mentioned.
Insiders bought a while back, maybe a few months ago and then insiders bought again a week or so again and that's when I jumped in again.
Been following the stock for decades.
Aubrey was buying and buying into the $70's, must have been using margin and then the stock crashed and he was done.
I'm guessing his auto accident was on purpose or someone did him in, he was quite a character, i'm sorry he's gone..
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2019 21:24:03 GMT -5
I bought it way back when at $4, I recently bought and tripled my shares to bring my cost down. Their attempting to sell some acerage for $1B, I believe a pro football team owner was mentioned. Insiders bought a while back, maybe a few months ago and then insiders bought again a week or so again and that's when I jumped in again. Been following the stock for decades. Aubrey was buying and buying into the $70's, must have been using margin and then the stock crashed and he was done. I'm guessing his auto accident was on purpose or someone did him in, he was quite a character, i'm sorry he's gone.. Yep, Aubrey was levered up. Him and his buddy Tom Ward over at Sandridge Energy were both levered up and buying with both hands when Nat Gas shot up to around $12 and then....down she came. Aubrey was a good fellow. There was no shortage of "oil men" that were very colorful back when the Shale boom started.
It was Dallas Cowboy's owner Jerry Jones at Comstock (CRK) that was circling above CHK a few days ago. That's what I was waiting to see play out. Jerry, via his investment vehicle, Blue Star Exploration took a controlling stake in CRK and is on the prowl. But, he's an oil man at heart and I"m sure he's protected. Not like he's out there buying with his own cash....Jerry's a pretty shrewd dude.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2019 21:36:10 GMT -5
Chesapeake Energy’s stock soars as debt deals buy time for troubled company , Published: Dec 4, 2019 3:33 p.m. ET Shares have bounced more than 30% off the 25-year low hit 2 weeks ago Chesapeake Energy Corp.By Tomi Kilgore Reporter and editor Shares of Chesapeake Energy Corp. soared on heavy volume Wednesday, after a series of debt financing moves that were announced helped provide the struggling oil and natural gas company with additional financial flexibility. The stock CHK, +16.55% ran up 16% in afternoon trading, and has now climbed 32% since closing at a 25-year low of 56 cents on Nov. 19. Trading volume was 134.5 million shares, enough to make the stock the most actively traded on major U.S. exchanges, and well above the full-day average of about 90.7 million shares. “While the newly announced transactions appear to buy Chesapeake time, we believe asset sales remain critical to the going concern.” Neal Dingmann, analyst at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey The Oklahoma City-based company said before the market open that it has engaged with a number of banks to help with the arrangement of a $1.5 billion secured 4 1/2-year term loan facility. Chesapeake said it plans to use the proceeds of the loan to finance a tender offer for unsecured notes issued by its Brazos Valley Longhorn LLC and Brazos Valley Longhorn Finance Corp. subsidiaries, and to fund the retirement of Brazos Valley’s secured revolving credit facility. “Chesapeake expects these transactions to improve its financial flexibility, as they will allow Brazos Valley and its subsidiaries to support Chesapeake’s current and future debt,” the company said in a statement. Chesapeake also said earlier that it has commenced “private offers” of up to $1.5 billion of its new 11.5% senior secured second lien notes due 2025, in exchange for certain existing unsecured notes. The existing notes subject to the exchange offer include a 7.0% note due 2024, an 8.0% note due 2025, 8% and 7.5% notes due 2026 and an 8.0% note due 2027. Chesapeake’s most active debt instrument, the 8.0% notes maturing in 2027, traded Wednesday at 57.50 cents on the dollar, up sharply from 47.90 cents on the dollar on Tuesday. Chesapeake Energy Corp. Analyst Neal Dingmann at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey said “most importantly,” the amendments to Chesapeake’s credit facility increases the company’s borrowing ability, to a leverage ratio of 4.5-times from 4.0-times. In the company’s 10-Q filing of audited third-quarter results, the company defined leverage ratio as the ratio of consolidated debt to consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and exploration expense. Dingmann said that while he views the financing deals as a “positive” for Chesapeake, as it gives the company with additional financial flexibility for future transactions, he still believes “large asset monetizations” are critical in addressing debt maturities over the next few years, as leverage remains well above the company’s peer group. “While the newly announced transactions appear to buy Chesapeake time, we believe asset sales remain critical to the going concern,” Dingmann wrote in a note to clients. What may also be providing a boost to Chesapeake’s stock is a rally in crude oil prices. Continuous crude oil futures jumped 4.2%, after U.S. government data showed the first contraction in inventories in six weeks. See Futures Movers. The stock has plunged this year, to a close last month at the lowest price since May 1994, as the company has reported financial results that missed Wall Street expectations for three straight quarters. The company’s struggles were highlighted by Chesapeake’s warning that it had “substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern.” Don’t miss: Chesapeake Energy’s stock breaks the buck for the first time in 20 years. Also read: Chesapeake’s stock falls to lowest price in 25 years as ‘going concern’ warning weighs. SunTrust’s Dingmann reiterated his hold rating on Chesapeake’s stock and $1 price target. That compares with the average rating of the 21 analysts surveyed by FactSet of the equivalent of underweight. The stock has plummeted 74% over the past 12 months, while the SPDR Energy Select Sector exchange-traded fund XLE, +1.50% has lost 10% and the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.63% has gained 15%. www.marketwatch.com/story/chesapeake-energys-stock-soars-as-debt-deals-buy-time-for-troubled-company-2019-12-04?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2019 23:10:47 GMT -5
"Fools rush in where wise men never go", the King ELVIS
Were probably fools but time will tell
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Chk
Dec 5, 2019 7:43:52 GMT -5
Post by Blitz on Dec 5, 2019 7:43:52 GMT -5
I bought it way back when at $4, I recently bought and tripled my shares to bring my cost down. Their attempting to sell some acerage for $1B, I believe a pro football team owner was mentioned. Insiders bought a while back, maybe a few months ago and then insiders bought again a week or so again and that's when I jumped in again. Been following the stock for decades. Aubrey was buying and buying into the $70's, must have been using margin and then the stock crashed and he was done. I'm guessing his auto accident was on purpose or someone did him in, he was quite a character, i'm sorry he's gone.. This was a straight road. There were no skid marks and judging by the impact damage to the front of the car, it was high rate of speed with no attempt to avoid impact... it certainly seems like it was somehow on purpose.
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Chk
Dec 5, 2019 9:04:31 GMT -5
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Post by birdnest on Dec 5, 2019 9:04:31 GMT -5
I wonder if he was wearing his seat belt?
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Chk
Dec 7, 2019 9:53:24 GMT -5
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Post by birdnest on Dec 7, 2019 9:53:24 GMT -5
Slowly but surely CHK is making ground up.... come on you Dog get above a buck so Daddy can buy a new pair of shoes.
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Chk
Dec 9, 2019 12:30:02 GMT -5
Post by CardsFan on Dec 9, 2019 12:30:02 GMT -5
Slowly but surely CHK is making ground up.... come on you Dog get above a buck so Daddy can buy a new pair of shoes. It's not just CHK. NBR and a bunch of oil names are up 25% in last week. But I feel you and are in the same boat:)
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Chk
Dec 19, 2019 10:21:26 GMT -5
Post by CardsFan on Dec 19, 2019 10:21:26 GMT -5
This energy rally is strong. Merry Christmas to all those in these names.
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Chk
Dec 19, 2019 14:52:09 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2019 14:52:09 GMT -5
Well....its all relative. As we said. Timing is everything. The year is being touted as being so great...S&P at 3200, up 28% or thereabouts. BUT we must remember, on October the 1st of 2018, the S&P 500 was at 2924....so the last 15 months is only up 10%. Again, timing. Energy however underperforming for the decade, unless you had great timing buying and selling....if you were just a buy and hold type of person....you've wasted 10 years....you can recover money, but you can't recover time. www.cnn.com/2019/12/18/investing/worst-stocks-oil-energy/index.htmlEnergy stocks are the biggest losers of 2019 -- and the decade
By Matt Egan, CNN Business Updated 7:59 AM ET, Wed December 18, 2019 Although America is now the world's largest producer of both crude oil and natural gas, energy stocks have been losers. Big ones. Shale oil companies were a victim of their own success." The S&P 500's energy sector has generated a total return, including dividends, of just 6% in 2019. It's easily the weakest sector in the stock market. That trend is hardly new. This year will be the eighth year in the last nine that energy stocks underperformed the broader market, according to Raymond James. For the decade, the energy sector is up a paltry 34%, according to Refinitiv. That's by far the worst total return of any of the S&P 500's 11 sectors. The next closest sector, materials, has climbed five times as much. And tech stocks, the darlings of the bull market, have soared are up nearly 400%. "That's pretty bleak," said Pavel Molchanov, an energy analyst at Raymond James. The next closest sector, materials, has climbed five times as much. And tech stocks, the darlings of the bull market, have soared nearly 400%. The chronic poor performance of energy stocks has been driven in large part by low oil and natural gas prices. The shale revolution may have unlocked vast amounts of new supply, but now the world is drowning in it. "Shale oil companies were a victim of their own success," said Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group. "They produced so much oil that they stepped on themselves." Oil and gas companies spent wildly to make the United States the world's leading producer. They borrowed so heavily that they have little cash left over to share with shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks. And some companies stressed their balance sheets so badly that they went bankrupt during the 2014-2016 oil crash. "Being a big producer and having a profitable energy sector are two very different things," said McNally, a former energy adviser to President George W. Bush. Not surprisingly, Refinitiv stats show that the S&P 500's two worst-performing stocks this decade are from the energy sector: Devon Energy (DVN) and Apache (APA). Are oil companies the new vice stocks? There's another force likely at play here: climate change. Increased awareness of the climate crisis, the rise of socially-conscious investing and concerns about peak oil demand have all limited the appetite for oil and gas stocks. Put simply, fossil fuel companies are in the penalty box. And that's depressing valuations. "You're seeing investors exit the space," said Ben Cook, portfolio manager at BP Capital Fund Advisors. A wave of major pension funds, endowment funds and other intuitions have divested from fossil fuels. Even the $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund of Norway, a nation whose wealth was largely built on oil, is gradually phasing out its investments in exploration and production companies. "The energy names are almost viewed as a class of vice stocks like alcohol and tobacco," said Cook. "That perception has created a negative pall over the whole sector. I don't know how you overcome that." 'Drowning' in excess supply It's impossible to say how the next decade will play out for the energy sector. But low prices, weak balance sheets and climate change probably hold the answer. Natural gas prices remain depressed, in large part because of excess supply. The oil boom in the Permian Basin of West Texas has only deepened that glut because natural gas is a byproduct of the oil being pumped. "We're sort of drowning in gas. It's hard to manage," said Rapidan's McNally. Oil prices have been subdued since late 2014 when Saudi Arabia-led OPEC flooded the market with supply. Crude eventually crashed to just $26 a barrel. OPEC, along with allies like Russia, have since reversed course by restraining production in an effort to mop up excess supply. Those efforts have successfully put a floor beneath crude but failed to sustainably lift prices above $70 a barrel. It's a far cry from the 2008 peak north of $140 a barrel. McNally warned that the supply glut will likely stretch into 2020, keeping a lid on prices and energy stocks. "There is simply too much new supply next year. We don't see an end to it," he said. The good news for the energy industry is that oil companies seem to be heeding Wall Street's pleas for better capital discipline. Companies are no longer plowing every penny of their cash flow back into drilling. They are promising to keep some of it to pay down debt and return to shareholders. "That's a new phenomenon. Many investors are skeptical it will last but our view is that it will," said Molchanov of Raymond James. Climate crisis isn't going away But it's hard to see how the pressure from climate change will improve for the energy sector. Capital could become even scarcer. Goldman Sachs (GS) this week became the first large US bank to rule out loans for new oil projects in the Arctic. The climate crisis may pose new obstacles for oil and gas companies, including crackdowns from governments. Some 2020 Democratic presidential candidates have called for banning fracking altogether. In the 2010s, excess supply was the defining challenge for the energy industry. In the coming years, it could be climate change.
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Chk
Dec 19, 2019 14:59:37 GMT -5
Post by CardsFan on Dec 19, 2019 14:59:37 GMT -5
Well....its all relative. As we said. Timing is everything. The year is being touted as being so great...S&P at 3200, up 28% or thereabouts. BUT we must remember, on October the 1st of 2018, the S&P 500 was at 2924....so the last 15 months is only up 10%. Again, timing. Energy however underperforming for the decade, unless you had great timing buying and selling....if you were just a buy and hold type of person....you've wasted 10 years....you can recover money, but you can't recover time. www.cnn.com/2019/12/18/investing/worst-stocks-oil-energy/index.htmlEnergy stocks are the biggest losers of 2019 -- and the decadeI'm talking to those who bought recently. I'm pissed at myself for selling some too soon. I started trading Nabors when it went below 2 and did so several times. I bought a large chunk at 1.60 and I'm kicking myself for selling at 2.20. (About a month ago, before the China deal got done) I kept a little bit but wow, I'd be sitting pretty had i kept it all. Really wish I'd bought some CHK. I thought about it, but i couldn't afford more risk given I'd already added to Nabors. My plan has always been to exit all of my energy names once we get one last big run up. I don't think we are there yet, but if we could somehow get another oil to 100 rally, i might just run through the streets naked. Energy has been the only part of my portfolio that's lagged, not counting those trading shares I've been making money on
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Chk
Dec 19, 2019 15:10:31 GMT -5
Post by CardsFan on Dec 19, 2019 15:10:31 GMT -5
I also think this rally is temporary and more of a market melt-up. A lot of banks think 90% of next year's gains will come in the first quarter. I'm looking to hold on for now and selectively sell as we near Super Tuesday. I'm not going to be caught excessively long until I know Sanders/Warren are out of the race. But I'll relish the gains for now.
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Chk
Dec 20, 2019 7:20:45 GMT -5
Post by Blitz on Dec 20, 2019 7:20:45 GMT -5
Try living without energy and without fossil fuels. The vast majority of energy comes from fossil fuels and will for at least another 20 years... and I've got the over on that. Electric car... they need power plants to charge their batteries. More and more cars will be bought in China... 1.3 billion people gotta drive. That's going to put pressure on oil prices, nat gas, and whatever fuel that fuels their power plants. And that's just cars. Think about the coming growth for electrical power generation in China, India, and other rising high population countries growing their middle class.
This is all about supply and demand and think demand is going to go up instead of down simply based on a worldwide rising middle class. This is just a little lull due to China's economy slowing down the world economy and the USA becoming an oil exporter due to increased production. Both are going to change in ways that put upward pressure on oil prices... eventually.
I like to bet on eventualities...
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Dec 20, 2019 7:43:23 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2019 7:43:23 GMT -5
This is all about supply and demand There's the rub. The constantly improving fuel efficiencies and the never ending search of alternatives along with tax credits for such combined with the improving technology in finding new reserves makes for demand being met with what we have available therefore capping the price for the foreseeable future (in my eyes anyway). Oil shocks? Sure, some political event can take millions offline and cause a spike, but then our shale guys ramp up and/or the event that caused the shock is resolved. How long did oil trade 20-40? A long time, about 20 years! Then one of the strangest economic mysteries I've ever seen occurred. Fracking technology and the Shale boom occurred and all the sudden we were swimming in the stuff, discovering huge reserves almost daily it seemed....and the price in light of all that supply.....it went to $150 a barrel! WTF? That never made sense to me and I was pounding the table saying a crash was inevitable....was just told I didn't understand the oil markets....to which, I agreed! It was like the tech thing to me. We had laid all that fiber and could move vast amounts of data around at the speed of light, but at the time.....we didn't have a need for that much bandwidth....who remembers the term, bandwidth glut? I do, vividly!! EVENTUALLY as you say, we found a use for that bandwidth, but it took a decade. The Nasdaq bubble to 5000, once popped took 15 years to reclaim that level! 15 loooong years. Oil topped out around 165 in 2008. www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chartLook how many producers are still hanging on! They are all ready to ramp up production to remain profitable....they HAVE to pump to pay the tons of debt they've taken on. We're in an odd predicament....lower prices may do nothing but INCREASE production. But, it's out of my wheelhouse. I'm sure we'll stair step it higher to where the range will be 65-75 at some point over the next 5 years....but for now....speaking just for me....easier battles to fight.
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Chk
Dec 20, 2019 8:13:21 GMT -5
Post by Blitz on Dec 20, 2019 8:13:21 GMT -5
This is all about supply and demand There's the rub. The constantly improving fuel efficiencies and the never ending search of alternatives along with tax credits for such combined with the improving technology in finding new reserves makes for demand being met with what we have available therefore capping the price for the foreseeable future (in my eyes anyway). Oil shocks? Sure, some political event can take millions offline and cause a spike, but then our shale guys ramp up and/or the event that caused the shock is resolved. How long did oil trade 20-40? A long time, about 20 years! Then one of the strangest economic mysteries I've ever seen occurred. Fracking technology and the Shale boom occurred and all the sudden we were swimming in the stuff, discovering huge reserves almost daily it seemed....and the price in light of all that supply.....it went to $150 a barrel! WTF? That never made sense to me and I was pounding the table saying a crash was inevitable....was just told I didn't understand the oil markets....to which, I agreed! It was like the tech thing to me. We had laid all that fiber and could move vast amounts of data around at the speed of light, but at the time.....we didn't have a need for that much bandwidth....who remembers the term, bandwidth glut? I do, vividly!! EVENTUALLY as you say, we found a use for that bandwidth, but it took a decade. The Nasdaq bubble to 5000, once popped took 15 years to reclaim that level! 15 loooong years. Oil topped out around 165 in 2008. www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chartLook how many producers are still hanging on! They are all ready to ramp up production to remain profitable....they HAVE to pump to pay the tons of debt they've taken on. We're in an odd predicament....lower prices may do nothing but INCREASE production. But, it's out of my wheelhouse. I'm sure we'll stair step it higher to where the range will be 65-75 at some point over the next 5 years....but for now....speaking just for me....easier battles to fight. I think the changes that brought the price of oil down were a result of changes to environmental laws and Dick Cheney. bigthink.com/politics-current-affairs/halliburton-loophole
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Dec 20, 2019 9:02:39 GMT -5
Post by CardsFan on Dec 20, 2019 9:02:39 GMT -5
Nat gas isn't going anywhere. It's an important feedstock for a lot of chemical companies and manufacturing firms. It's not like all the additional machines and everything else we need won't use lubricants, plastic, waxes, etc... Yes, there are easier battles to fight. But as you said, skate to where the puck is going. Energy is long overdue, and everything, and I mean everything eventually returns to a mean when everything else has rallied.
A lot of the companies cleaned up balance sheets and refinanced debts. Unless China deal gets called off, we should see a decent rally until at least election time. Do I want to be long energy out more than 1-2 years? No. But it's a little like the macau names, in that it has a lot of room left to run. Macau may have a terrible December but who cares. Those firms have easy comps next year, not even counting Japan news. Factor in Hong Kong, and Xi wanting to pain Macau as the golden child, and there are far too many reasons to bet on a decent rally next year, even if the rest of the market stalls.
Saudis also can't risk tanking markets because they aren't done selling off their piece of Aramco. So you almost have some built in hedges. Contrast that with health care companies that are getting nailed from both sides. Both Trump and Dems want to hurt them. I'll be looking to lock in more health care gains as we get closer to the election.
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