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RIG
Feb 3, 2021 14:58:48 GMT -5
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Post by Blitz on Feb 3, 2021 14:58:48 GMT -5
Brent at $58.42, up 3 days in a row with good gains and rig hasn't moved very much, WHY?? The price of oil is going up due to supply constraints. Demand needs to pick up.
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Post by bjspokanimal on Feb 3, 2021 16:35:08 GMT -5
Good question, Taxx. The foundation for higher oil prices lies in inventories. China has drawn down 10 million barrels since Christmas, and that's despite them building new storage capacity, pipelines and other infrastructure. As I mentioned before, China being in the Paris Climate Accord of nations is like Jeffrey Epstein spending time in Church... China's in the PCA for "appearances" only, and is doing NOTHING to curb carbon emissions. That's one reason why Trump left the PCA, and why Biden's an idiot for rejoining it. The U.S. cut emissions more during Trump's presidency than almost every member of the Paris Accords, so go figure. U.S. hydrocarbon inventories are also back in normal ranges... the higher end of 5 year average levels anyway. Here's the site for U.S. inventories. It was just updated at 1pm today. www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/index.phpBut what really set off crude prices lately was Royal Dutch Shell's snap purchase of a whopping 7, 2-million barrel cargos out of the North Sea... something we haven't seen the likes of which in years. Shell also committed to an additional 8 cargoes in the weeks to come. The Shell action suggested supply shortages... mainly in Asia... that may not be showing up in inventory figures. We saw something similar right after the Saudi's did their surprise, 1 million barrel-per-day unilateral cut in January, so that cut seems to have unleashed some supply problems. I'm a bit surprised that RIG hasn't traded a little closer to it's recent highs given the surge in crude, but RIG has had quite a run in recent weeks so there's some inevitable profit taking likely going on with traders (or "guessers", as I call them). With RIG, as I mentioned before, they're in their "quiet period" ahead of earnings, so if anything positive is happening with rig tenders, in light of rising crude, we won't hear about it until they announce Q4, unless it's something extraordinary or covering an info leak. RIG should announce in around 10 days from now. They normally announce quarterly earnings around the first of the month, but Q4/yearly results are generally announced a couple of weeks later that their regular quarterlies are released.
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Post by Blitz on Feb 3, 2021 17:00:19 GMT -5
I think Transocean reports 2/18/2021.
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Post by bjspokanimal on Feb 3, 2021 18:39:42 GMT -5
I think Transocean reports 2/18/2021. Good to know... the day after I get my second Moderna vaccine jab so an easy date to remember.
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RIG
Feb 4, 2021 20:01:16 GMT -5
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Post by pyromancer157 on Feb 4, 2021 20:01:16 GMT -5
Good question, Taxx. The foundation for higher oil prices lies in inventories. China has drawn down 10 million barrels since Christmas, and that's despite them building new storage capacity, pipelines and other infrastructure. As I mentioned before, China being in the Paris Climate Accord of nations is like Jeffrey Epstein spending time in Church... China's in the PCA for "appearances" only, and is doing NOTHING to curb carbon emissions. That's one reason why Trump left the PCA, and why Biden's an idiot for rejoining it. The U.S. cut emissions more during Trump's presidency than almost every member of the Paris Accords, so go figure. U.S. hydrocarbon inventories are also back in normal ranges... the higher end of 5 year average levels anyway. Here's the site for U.S. inventories. It was just updated at 1pm today. www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/index.phpBut what really set off crude prices lately was Royal Dutch Shell's snap purchase of a whopping 7, 2-million barrel cargos out of the North Sea... something we haven't seen the likes of which in years. Shell also committed to an additional 8 cargoes in the weeks to come. The Shell action suggested supply shortages... mainly in Asia... that may not be showing up in inventory figures. We saw something similar right after the Saudi's did their surprise, 1 million barrel-per-day unilateral cut in January, so that cut seems to have unleashed some supply problems. I'm a bit surprised that RIG hasn't traded a little closer to it's recent highs given the surge in crude, but RIG has had quite a run in recent weeks so there's some inevitable profit taking likely going on with traders (or "guessers", as I call them). With RIG, as I mentioned before, they're in their "quiet period" ahead of earnings, so if anything positive is happening with rig tenders, in light of rising crude, we won't hear about it until they announce Q4, unless it's something extraordinary or covering an info leak. RIG should announce in around 10 days from now. They normally announce quarterly earnings around the first of the month, but Q4/yearly results are generally announced a couple of weeks later that their regular quarterlies are released. Spok, are you referring to this purchase by RDS? Bloomberg quotes 5 purchases and 7 tenders? www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-02/shell-binges-on-north-sea-crude-with-oil-prices-powering-higher
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RIG
Feb 4, 2021 21:06:42 GMT -5
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Post by birdnest on Feb 4, 2021 21:06:42 GMT -5
Glad you got your shot S, I’ll be lucky if I’m on the list in 2021. I think Gitmo prisoners will get it before me...😥
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RIG
Feb 4, 2021 22:22:55 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2021 22:22:55 GMT -5
SYMBOL PRICE CHANGE %CHANGE VOLUME *OIL 56.68 +0.45 +0.8 19,091 *BRENT 59.28 +0.44 +0.75 Brent approaching $60, RIG should start moving thru the stratusphere soon since it has not moved substatially in the last week. www.cnbc.com/futures-and-commodities/
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RIG
Feb 5, 2021 3:51:25 GMT -5
Blitz likes this
Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2021 3:51:25 GMT -5
On Bloomberg TV this morning: Brent going to $80 due to supply constraints.
Brent $59.60
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RIG
Feb 5, 2021 20:01:12 GMT -5
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Post by bjspokanimal on Feb 5, 2021 20:01:12 GMT -5
Blitz; News release today that they'll report Q4 on February 22nd, not February 18th. Taxx: I'm willing to bet that if Covid-19 mutates into a strain as deadly as Ebola and proves to be vaccine-resistant... that Brent won't hit $80 soon and RIG could go tits-up. Of course, my point is that no matter how big a stake one takes in what Buffett would call an "inevitability"... there's always risk... and diversification never goes out of style.😉
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2021 2:49:42 GMT -5
I bought shares the first time it went to $0.97, that was my one and only purchase, bought a lot of shares.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2021 2:52:40 GMT -5
spok... I've always looked at the stock market as the biggest casino in the world.
Any money in the stock market is totally at risk.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2021 4:24:55 GMT -5
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RIG
Feb 8, 2021 8:48:54 GMT -5
Post by Blitz on Feb 8, 2021 8:48:54 GMT -5
There are still artificial supply constraints, but as more and more get the jab RIG should continue its climb due to more people working and traveling.
With CA opening up due to failed shutdown policies there could be a small spike in demand.
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Post by CardsFan on Feb 13, 2021 1:10:18 GMT -5
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RIG
Feb 13, 2021 13:24:24 GMT -5
Post by Blitz on Feb 13, 2021 13:24:24 GMT -5
I hope that comes with increased demand or it's just more supply. That said, the much hate oil sector, as reported by CNBC everyday is getting more and more positive comments, in spite of everyone being on the clean energy - electric cars bandwagon. From what I've read, even if every car sold in the USA was electric sometime next year... oil would demand would still be string for another 20 years...
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RIG
Feb 13, 2021 23:15:06 GMT -5
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Post by bjspokanimal on Feb 13, 2021 23:15:06 GMT -5
@ ryashhlee & blitz; The rise in the number of rigs drilling for oil is slow and off of a depressed level. Even though the rig count drilling for oil (excluding rigs drilling for gas) is up 12 weeks straight to 397, this is still 393 fewer rigs than the 790 rigs that were drilling for oil at this time last year. Oil E&P companies still have weak balance sheets and it'll be awhile before they can fully restore their drilling budgets. Large companies and sovereign country E&P entities drilling in deep water are in better shape, however, and to the extent that they're not, they're prioritizing their large, proven, deepwater, yet scantily-developed, reserves.
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RIG
Feb 15, 2021 3:04:45 GMT -5
Post by CardsFan on Feb 15, 2021 3:04:45 GMT -5
@ ryashhlee & blitz; The rise in the number of rigs drilling for oil is slow and off of a depressed level. Even though the rig count drilling for oil (excluding rigs drilling for gas) is up 12 weeks straight to 397, this is still 393 fewer rigs than the 790 rigs that were drilling for oil at this time last year. Oil E&P companies still have weak balance sheets and it'll be awhile before they can fully restore their drilling budgets. Large companies and sovereign country E&P entities drilling in deep water are in better shape, however, and to the extent that they're not, they're prioritizing their large, proven, deepwater, yet scantily-developed, reserves. After the recent cold snap, there will be more nat gas rigs coming online. The spot price of natty gas is up 4000% this weekend, at least in the US and while Biden May restrict land drilling in the US, lots of land rigs are coming back in international markets because oil prices had already reached levels that made most international markets profitable. there is a major commodities rally in the works. Both farming REITs I own have doubled in price, and it’s not because land values have doubled. I’ve taken advantage of gold pullbacks to add to those holdings, but gold isn’t really the current play. I’m betting that down the road, our government is forced to do what FDR did when he intervened in gold markets, when they tanked the US dollar. That’s when I think gold will make an exponential move north. Crypto has has become the new gold, and while I’m not in that space yet, there are too many companies now moving balance sheet dollars into it, such as Tesla. And don’t get me started on the recent move in Platinum, which I think will outperform silver. Im moving about 15% of my portfolio into commodities, and about 20% into real estate. I don’t know how high oil is going to go, but I hope we get one last super spike. I’m not buying any more oil assets that can’t be converted, such as pipelines, since they can still move hydrogen. Any new oil/gas money for me will likely be trades via futures types vehicles. i thought about EQT this weekend, due to gas exposure, and it picking up chevrons gas assets at bottom dollar prices. Thing is, they just hedged 80% of gas production before recent spike, so you’d have to believe in 2022 story to go there.
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RIG
Feb 15, 2021 9:16:48 GMT -5
Post by Blitz on Feb 15, 2021 9:16:48 GMT -5
How many natural gas wells are in the US? 900,000*
There are more than 900,000 active oil and gas wells in the United States, and more than 130,000 have been drilled since 2010, according to Drillinginfo, a company that provides data and analysis to the drilling industry.
*As of 2017 and about 22,000 are drilled every year. I don't think we're going to run out of NatGas anytime soon.
Natural Gas is so unprofitable there are thousands of idle and capped wells...
There were more than 50,000 wells on state cleanup lists across the country in 2018, and states estimated there were somewhere between 200,000 to 750,000 more abandoned wells that weren’t in their records. If you include wells that are “idle,” meaning they may still have an owner but haven’t produced any oil or gas in years—and are at risk of getting thrust into state hands if their owners go bankrupt—the count reaches around 2.1 million, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
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RIG
Feb 15, 2021 14:03:04 GMT -5
Post by Blitz on Feb 15, 2021 14:03:04 GMT -5
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Post by bjspokanimal on Feb 15, 2021 14:08:14 GMT -5
Transocean released it's quarterly rig status report today. There appears to be an uptick in contract extensions, but in contrast to the long-term extensions announced on 2 rigs in Brazil's pre-salt development last fall, the latest ones range from a single well extension to as many as 7 wells, which are short-term extensions. Last year, Transocean's drilling backlog was declining at a rate of about $600 million per quarter. In this status report, they reported the mid-february backlog at $7.8 billion, which is about $400 million lower than the $8.2 billion backlog reported 4.5 months ago. Bottom line: the contract extensions have been slowing down the falling (fulfillment) of RIG's backlog. Based on last year's average rate of decline, the backlog would have fallen about $890 million between September 30th and February 12th, rather than the $400 million decline that occurred amidst the contract extensions. Importantly, this report doesn't address RFP's for upcoming tenders, which would be a measure of planned drilling activity later this year. That info, IMO, would be what moves the stock or doesn't when earnings and the conference call happen a week from today. Recall that RIG surprised the market in it's last earnings call be reporting 17 RFPs in the 3rd quarter, a number of RFPs that actually matched the number they received in last year's 4th quarter, prior to the onset of covid and the corresponding plunge in oil prices last spring. It's unclear how wall street will view this report, since the status report was released after the close of trading last Friday. Stay tuned when the market opens tomorrow. Here's the release: finance.yahoo.com/news/transocean-ltd-provides-quarterly-fleet-211800363.html
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RIG
Feb 16, 2021 4:37:40 GMT -5
Post by CardsFan on Feb 16, 2021 4:37:40 GMT -5
How many natural gas wells are in the US? 900,000* There are more than 900,000 active oil and gas wells in the United States, and more than 130,000 have been drilled since 2010, according to Drillinginfo, a company that provides data and analysis to the drilling industry. *As of 2017 and about 22,000 are drilled every year. I don't think we're going to run out of NatGas anytime soon. Natural Gas is so unprofitable there are thousands of idle and capped wells... There were more than 50,000 wells on state cleanup lists across the country in 2018, and states estimated there were somewhere between 200,000 to 750,000 more abandoned wells that weren’t in their records. If you include wells that are “idle,” meaning they may still have an owner but haven’t produced any oil or gas in years—and are at risk of getting thrust into state hands if their owners go bankrupt—the count reaches around 2.1 million, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Canada’s nat gas rig count is up from 9 to 73 due to Biden’s recent actions. And nat gas will likely be very profitable this year. I’m in north Texas and have been without power 22 of the last 24 hours. The whole reason Texas is having this issue is all the wind turbines froze, proving that even in a state which only sources 20% alternative energy, alt energy can’t handle extreme environments. im not sure what I’m buying this week, but I will be placing a small bet on nat gas. If it fails so be it. But most the data points I’m reading point to potentially solid trades. Even Chesapeake would have been a decent option, had it not hedged so much coming out of BK.
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RIG
Feb 16, 2021 7:48:54 GMT -5
Post by Blitz on Feb 16, 2021 7:48:54 GMT -5
This is what makes a market. I can easily see how a person can make money in NatGas, but it will be short lived, in my opinion. If you bot a tanker full of liquified NatGas at $2 and it’s now at $3... winner, winner, chicken dinner!
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RIG
Feb 16, 2021 9:59:16 GMT -5
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Post by Blitz on Feb 16, 2021 9:59:16 GMT -5
financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/mexico-blames-u-s-as-energy-crisis-spills-across-the-borderExcerpt: (Bloomberg) -- If President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was looking for ammunition in his quest to cut Mexico’s reliance on foreign energy, it would be hard to top the electricity blackouts affecting the north of the country. Mexico reported 4.77 million homes and businesses losing power Monday after imports of natural gas from the U.S. were curbed, knocking power stations offline. The disruption is a spillover of the the worst electricity crisis in recent history in the U.S., where freakishly cold weather has cut oil and gas output. Mexico has restored power to 65% of users, state utility CFE said in its latest update. But the company didn’t miss the opportunity to make a political point.
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RIG
Feb 16, 2021 13:31:58 GMT -5
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Post by Blitz on Feb 16, 2021 13:31:58 GMT -5
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RIG
Feb 17, 2021 10:58:00 GMT -5
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Post by Blitz on Feb 17, 2021 10:58:00 GMT -5
Transocean Ltd. Provides Quarterly Fleet Status Report STEINHAUSEN, Switzerland, Feb. 12, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) today issued a quarterly Fleet Status Report that provides the current status of, and contract information for, the company’s fleet of offshore drilling rigs.
As of February 12, the company’s total backlog is approximately $7.8 billion. This quarter’s report includes the following updates: Deepwater Corcovado – Customer exercised a 680-day option in Brazil; Deepwater Mykonos – Customer exercised a 815-day option in Brazil; Development Driller III – Awarded a one-well contract extension in Trinidad; Development Driller III – Awarded a one-well contract, plus a one-well option in Trinidad; Transocean Norge – Awarded a one-well contract in Norway; Transocean Barents – Awarded a three-well contract in Norway; Paul B Loyd, Jr. – Awarded a 78-day contract extension in the U.K. North Sea; Dhirubhai Deepwater KG1– Customer exercised a seven-well option in India; and Deepwater Nautilus – Customer provided notice of termination of its drilling contract in Malaysia. Additionally, the company has retired the Leiv Eiriksson. The rig is classified as held for sale. The report can be accessed on the company’s website: www.deepwater.com.
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