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Post by Blitz on Jan 7, 2023 12:04:33 GMT -5
War against Ukraine has left Russia isolated and struggling — with more tumult ahead December 31, 2022 - CHARLES MAYNES www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahePolice officers detain demonstrators in St. Petersburg, Russia, on Sept. 21, following calls to protest against the partial mobilization announced by President Vladimir Putin. Putin called on Russian military reservists, saying his promise to use all military means in Ukraine was "no bluff," and hinting that Moscow was prepared to use nuclear weapons. Olga Maltseva/AFP/Getty Images MOSCOW — It's been 10 months since Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he was deploying tens of thousands of Russian troops on a mission to "denazify" and "demilitarize" Ukraine – its smaller independent neighbor and former satellite of both the Russian and Soviet empires. At the time, Putin insisted his forces were embarking on a "special military operation" — a term suggesting a limited campaign that would be over in a matter of weeks. The reality has been far different. The invasion has grown into the biggest land war in Europe since World War II, forcing millions of Ukrainians from their homes, decimating the Ukrainian economy and killing thousands of civilians. A man pushes his bike through debris and destroyed Russian military vehicles in Bucha, Ukraine, on April 6. The Ukrainian government accused Russian forces of committing a "deliberate massacre" as they occupied and eventually retreated from Bucha, northwest of Kyiv. Hundreds of bodies were found in the days after Ukrainian forces regained control of the town. Chris McGrath/Getty Images Yet the war has also fundamentally upended Russian life — rupturing a post-Soviet period in which the country pursued, if not always democratic reforms, then at least financial integration and dialogue with the West. As the war grinds on into 2023, here are key trends that suggest Russia is in for more turbulent times ahead. More repression Never a liberal democracy, Putin's Russia now increasingly resembles an autocratic police state. Draconian laws passed since February have outlawed criticism of the military or leadership. Nearly 20,000 people have been detained for demonstrating against the war — 45% of them women — according to a leading independent monitoring group. Riot police detain demonstrators during a protest against mobilization in Moscow on Sept. 21, 2022, following Russian President Vladimir Putin's order of a partial mobilization of reservists in Russia. AP Lengthy prison sentences have been meted out to high profile opposition voices on charges of "discrediting" the Russian army by questioning its conduct or strategy. The repressions extend elsewhere: organizations and individuals are added weekly to a growing list of "foreign agents" and "non-desirable" organizations intended to damage their reputation among the Russian public. Even Russia's most revered human rights group, 2022's Nobel Prize co-recipient Memorial, was forced to stop its activities over alleged violations of the foreign agents law. The state has also vastly expanded Russia's already restrictive anti-LGBT laws, arguing the war in Ukraine reflects a wider attack on "traditional values." For now, repressions remain targeted. Some of the new laws are still unenforced. But few doubt the measures are intended to crush wider dissent — should the moment arise. Propaganda reigns The crackdown on dissent has also decimated Russia's independent media. Leading independent media outlets and a handful of vibrant, online investigative startups were forced to shut down or relocate abroad when confronted with new "fake news" laws that criminalized contradicting the official government line. Restrictions extend to internet users as well. American social media giants such as Twitter and Facebook were banned in March. Roskomnadzor, the Kremlin's internet regulator, has blocked more than 100,000 websites since the start of the conflict. Many have relaunched outside Russia, at times clashing with their host countries over editorial policies. Technical workarounds such as VPNs and Telegram still offer access to Russians seeking independent sources of information. But state media propaganda now blankets the airwaves favored by older Russians, with angry TV talk shows spreading conspiracies. As the war has ground on, there are few, if any, platforms that provide for discussion of the true costs of the conflict in lives or treasure. Younger Russians in exodus Russians queue to leave their country to avoid a military mobilization, at the Kazbegi border crossing in Stepantsminda, Georgia, on Sept. 28. The number of Russian citizens entering Georgia increased after Vladimir Putin's partial mobilization order. Davit Kachkachishvili/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images) Putin's invasion has prompted hundreds of thousands of Russians to flee their country in protest over the war or fear of being drafted into the fight. Thousands of perceived government opponents — many of them political activists, civil society workers and journalists — left in the war's early days amid concerns of persecution. Others — notably, IT specialists and artists — quickly joined the exodus as the conflict's drag on business and careers became clear. Yet Putin's order to mobilize 300,000 additional troops in September prompted the largest outflow: Hundreds of thousands of Russian men fled to border states including Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Georgia in an attempt to avoid the draft. Cars queue for the Verkhny Lars border crossing, departing from Russia and arriving in Georgia, in Chmi, Russia, on Sept. 29. Long lines of vehicles formed at the border crossing after Moscow announced a partial military mobilization. AP Putin argued it was good riddance, part of a "self-cleansing" of Russian society from traitors and spies. Russian officials have suggested stripping those who left the country of their passports. Yet there are questions whether Russia can thrive without many of its best and brightest. A government initiative to lure back computer specialists has produced mixed results. Meanwhile, some countries that have absorbed the Russian exodus predict their economies will grow, even as the swelling presence of Russians remains a sensitive issue to former Soviet republics in particular. Piling sanctions and increasing pressure The West imposed unparalleled sanctions on Russia's economy, which is the world's 11th largest. In the initial days of the invasion, Russia's ruble currency cratered and its banking and trading markets looked shaky. Hundreds of global corporate brands, such as McDonald's and ExxonMobil, reduced, suspended or closed their Russian operations entirely. People walk past a currency exchange office in central Moscow on Feb. 28. The Russian ruble collapsed against the dollar and the euro on the Moscow Stock Exchange on Feb. 28, as the West imposed harsh new sanctions over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Alexander Nemenov/AFP/Getty Images Yet Russia's economy has proven more resilient than many expected, buoyed largely by oil and gas exports. Helped by Russian price controls, the ruble regained value. McDonald's and several other brands ultimately relaunched under new names and Russian ownership. By year's end, the government reported the economy had declined by 2.5%, far less than most economists predicted. Restaurant staff serves customers at a branch of a new Russian fast-food chain, Vkusno i Tochka, in St. Petersburg, Russia, on June 22. Branches of the restaurant opened in McDonald's locations across Russia. Maksim Konstantinov /SOPA Image/Reuters Yet there are reasons to believe it's merely pain delayed. A reliance on imported Western parts — many now sanctioned — means key Russian industries risk going idle when back-ordered supplies winnow. The West continues to try and crimp Russian energy profits, by capping the amount countries will pay for Russian oil and limiting seaborne oil imports. There are signs the efforts are already cutting into profits. Ultimately, President Putin is betting that when it comes to sanctions, Europe will blink first — pulling back on its support to Ukraine as Europeans grow angry over soaring energy costs at home. He announced a five-month ban on oil exports to countries that abide by the price cap, a move likely to make the pain more acute in Europe. Either way, it's a race to the bottom. The economic damage has already put an end to Putin's two-decades strong reputation for providing "stability" — once a key basis for his support among Russians who remember the chaotic years that followed the collapse of the USSR. Russia's once-feared military is struggling Russian citizens are sent to their units following a military mobilization in Moscow on Sept. 29. Sefa Karacan/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images When it comes to Russia's military campaign, there's no outward change in the government's tone. Russia's Defense Ministry provides daily briefings recounting endless successes on the ground. Putin, too, repeatedly assures that everything is "going according to plan." Yet the sheer length of the war — with no immediate Russian victory in sight — suggests Russia vastly underestimated Ukrainians' willingness to resist. Russian troops have proven unable to conquer Ukraine's capital Kyiv or the second city of Kharkiv. Kherson, the sole major city seized by Russia, was abandoned amid a Ukrainian counteroffensive in November. Russian forces have shelled the city repeatedly since retreating. Russia's illegal annexation of four territories of Ukraine following unrecognized referendums in September has only underscored Moscow's problems: it hasn't been able to establish full control over the lands it now claims as its own. Leaders of four regions of Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Sept. 30, after signing a treaty to join Russia. From left: Moscow-appointed head of Kherson Region Vladimir Saldo, Moscow-appointed head of Zaporizhzhia region Yevgeny Balitsky, Putin, Denis Pushilin of self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Leonid Pasechnik of self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic. A mobilization drive intended to reinforce the Russian line was dogged by widespread complaints of poorly trained and ill-equipped recruits. The true number of Russian losses – officially at just under 6,000 men – remains a highly taboo subject at home. Western estimates place those figures much higher. A series of explosions, including along a key bridge connecting Russia to Crimea, which it annexed in 2014, have put into question Russia's ability to defend its own strategic infrastructure. Fire on the Kerch bridge in the Kerch Strait, Crimea, following an explosion on Oct. 8. Vera Katkova/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images Open criticism of military leadership spilled onto state television and social media — forcing the Kremlin to change command and tactics. Russia has since unleashed a wave of air strikes on civilian infrastructure in an attempt to freeze Ukraine into submission during the winter months. The bombing campaign has made life in Ukraine miserable, but there are few signs of Ukrainians backing down. Indeed, Russia's invasion has — thus far — backfired in its primary aims: NATO looks set to expand towards Russia's borders, with the addition of long-neutral states Finland and Sweden. Ukraine is now more militarized and consolidated around its desire for a European future than ever before. Members of Dzhokhar Dudayev Battalion train new recruits outside of Kyiv, Ukraine on Dec. 3. Pete Kiehart for NPR An increasing isolation As a result of its actions in Ukraine, Russia has few global allies, save its longtime client state in neighboring Belarus. Relations with the West have dipped to Cold War levels. Countries at the United Nations overwhelmingly condemned the invasion. But the Kremlin argues that, too, is a case of Western bias and bullying. Putin has openly courted allies in the global South, exploiting lingering colonial grievances, conservative values and access to resources. He has touted new economic partnerships in India and China as proof that a historic shift in the global power balance is under way. But Putin's vision looks far from assured. Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping via videoconference at the Kremlin in Moscow on Friday. Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/Kremlin Pool Photo/AP Longtime allies in Central Asia have criticized Russia's actions out of concern for their own sovereignty, an affront that would have been unthinkable in Soviet times. India and China have eagerly purchased discounted Russian oil, but have stopped short of full-throated support for Russia's military campaign. As 2022 draws to a close, Putin has canceled a series of high-profile events. A state of the nation address, originally scheduled for April, was repeatedly delayed and won't happen until next year. Putin's annual "direct line" — a media event in which Putin fields questions from ordinary Russians — was canceled outright. An annual December "big press conference" – a semi-staged affair that allows the Russian leader to handle fawning questions from mostly pro-Kremlin media – was similarly tabled until 2023. The Kremlin has given no reason for the delays. Many suspect it might be that, after 10 months of war and no sign of victory in sight, the Russian leader has finally run out of good news to share.
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Post by Blitz on Jan 8, 2023 7:16:35 GMT -5
Moscow to mobilize 500,000 new conscripts, Kyiv military intelligence says Ukrainian officials predict the new Russian draft effort will begin after January 15. UKRAINE-RUSSIA-CONFLICT-WAR Russia is planning to mobilize 500,000 more conscripts from mid-January | Sameer Al-Doumy/AFP via Getty Images BY VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA - JANUARY 7, 2023 5:53 PM CET www.politico.eu/article/russia-mobilize-new-conscript-military-intelligence-war-ukraine/KYIV — Ukrainian intelligence officials are warning that the Kremlin plans a new mobilization wave for up to 500,000 men to fight in Ukraine starting in mid-January. The new conscription drive, which would be larger than last autumn’s Russian draft of 300,000, would include a push in big cities, including some strategic industrial centers in Russia, Andriy Cherniak, an official with the Main Military Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, told POLITICO on Saturday. Russian President Vladimir Putin in December said a suggested new conscription wave would be pointless as currently only 150,000 previously mobilized soldiers have been deployed in the invasion of Ukraine. The rest are still training or serving in the Russian rear. Russia announced the end of the earlier “partial” mobilization of 300,000 men on October 31. But Cherniak claimed that Moscow has continued secret conscription all along. Now, Ukrainian military intelligence expects a new major wave of official mobilization might begin after January 15. “This time the Kremlin will mobilize residents of big cities, including the strategic industries centers all over Russia,” Cherniak said. “This will have a very negative impact on the already suffering Russian economy.” Moscow plans to use the 500,000 extra conscripts in a possible new massive offensive against Ukraine, the Guardian reported, citing Vadym Skibitsky, deputy chief of Ukrainian military intelligence. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russia has seen more than 100,000 soldiers killed in action in Ukraine. The latest blow that Moscow’s army has endured was in Makiivka, a town in the occupied part of Donetsk Oblast, where hundreds of newly conscripted Russian soldiers were killed or wounded in a high-precision strike by Ukrainian forces on January 1. Although the number of casualties cannot be verified independently, the Russian Defense Ministry acknowledged the deaths of 89 soldiers, which makes it the biggest one-time military loss recognized by Moscow in the Ukraine war. Ukrainian Armed Forces Chief Commander Valery Zaluzhnyy, in a December interview with the Economist, said Russia will conduct a new attempt at a massive offensive against Ukraine in February-March 2023. It might not start in Donbas, but in the direction of Kyiv through Belarus. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine keeps watching Russian steps in all directions. “Russia will not be able to conceal in silence its preparations for a new wave of aggression against Ukraine and the whole of Europe. The world will know in all details — how and when the aggressor is preparing a new escalation in this war,” Zelenskyy said in an evening video statement on January 5. “And every new mobilization step of Russia will be known to the world even before Russia makes it,” Zelenskyy said. “We will ensure this.”
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Post by Blitz on Jan 8, 2023 7:20:38 GMT -5
Norway Replaces Russia As Germany’s Top Gas Supplier By Charles Kennedy - Jan 06, 2023, 9:30 AM CST oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Norway-Replaces-Russia-As-Germanys-Top-Gas-Supplier.htmlNorway became Germany’s single-largest natural gas supplier in 2022, overtaking Russia, as total German gas imports dropped by 12.3% compared to 2021, the German Federal Network Agency, Bundesnetzagentur, said on Friday. Norway provided 33% of the gas Germany imported last year, followed by Russia, whose share fell to 22% for last year, compared to a 52% share in 2021, said the German regulator. Last year, Russia started gradually cutting gas supply via the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany in June until shutting down the pipeline in early September, claiming an inability to repair gas turbines for the pumping stations due to Western sanctions. The lack of gas deliveries from Russia was partly compensated for by additional imports, including from the Netherlands, Belgium, and Norway, the German network agency said today. Europe’s biggest economy also saved a lot of gas in 2022, partly due to household saving and to industrial production curtailments due to soaring gas prices. According to Bundesnetzagentur, Germany’s natural gas consumption dropped by 14% in 2022 compared to the average consumption for the past four years. Industrial demand fell by 15% compared to the average for the past four years. Between October and December, industrial gas consumption fell by 23%, and consumption by private consumers and businesses was 21% below the previous years. As supply from Russia fell and then stopped in early September, Germany started looking at importing LNG and began construction of regasification terminals to be able to welcome cargoes. The first such terminal, a floating LNG import terminal, officially opened at the end of 2022 at Wilhelmshaven on Germany’s North Sea coast. Earlier this week, Germany welcomed the first tanker carrying LNG at the newly opened LNG import terminal at Wilhelmshaven, with the cargo arriving from the Calcasieu Pass export facility in the United States. By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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Post by Blitz on Jan 8, 2023 8:56:37 GMT -5
New Western firepower outgunning Putin: How Russian raw recruits are losing to Ukraine's modern tech - and Kyiv could 'win the war this year' if Moscow doesn't 'get its act together' An expert says Ukraine could win the war against Russia as early as this year Last week, Ukraine was handed further tanks by France, Germany and the US Its arsenal of howitzers and rocket launchers is already superior to that of Russia Elon Musk's Starlight satellite system has also been an immeasurable weapon By STEWART CARR FOR MAILONLINE - PUBLISHED: 06:09 EST, 8 January 2023 A military expert says it is 'perfectly possible for Ukraine to win the war this year' if its military science continues to outmatch that of Russia. Ever since Putin's invasion of Ukraine on February 24 last year, President Volodymyr Zelensky has successfully lobbied Western allies for modern armoured vehicles to repel the occupiers. Through the course of the conflict, Ukraine has gradually surpassed its invaders with technology allowing for a devastating fightback. On New Year's Eve, a volley of American-manufactured HIMARS rocket launchers struck a building filled with Russian conscripts in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region. To continue reading... www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11611463/New-Western-firepower-outgunning-Putin-Russian-raw-recruits-losing-Ukraines-modern-tech.html
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Post by Blitz on Jan 11, 2023 18:00:54 GMT -5
Russia shakes up military leadership again Jan. 11, 2023 - By Anatoly Kurmanaev - New York Times www.spokesman.com/stories/2023/jan/11/russia-shakes-up-military-leadership-again/Russia has replaced its military chief in Ukraine with a Kremlin insider, dashing calls from Moscow ultranationalists for a radical overhaul of the leadership overseeing the flagging invasion. Gen. Valery Gerasimov, who had served as Russia’s chief of general staff for more than a decade, replaces Gen. Sergei Surovikin as the head of the Russian military in Ukraine, the Defense Ministry said in a statement Wednesday. Surovikin is now one of Gerasimov’s three deputies, according to the statement. Gerasimov was among the architects of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and has remained in his post despite the mounting military disasters. Surovikin was only put in charge of the Russian forces in Ukraine in October, ending months of disjointed military structure that analysts said contributed to Russia’s disastrous battlefield performance. His appointment came after the Ukrainians mounted a successful counteroffensive that drove the Russians out of much of the Kharkiv region. Surovikin was able to conduct an orderly retreat from the southern city of Kherson, the only Ukrainian provincial capital captured by Russian forces in nearly a year since the invasion. But he had struggled to make significant progress in the grinding offensive in the east of the country. This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
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Post by Blitz on Jan 12, 2023 7:46:23 GMT -5
Report: EU Sanctions On Crude, Products Could Cost Russia $300 Million Per Day By Charles Kennedy - Jan 11, 2023, 2:30 PM CST oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Report-EU-Sanctions-On-Crude-Products-Could-Cost-Russia-300-Million-Per-Day.htmlOnce new European Union restrictions on Russian oil products come into force on February 5, Russia could face losses of around $300 million per day, a new report from a Finnish research center predicts. The report, by the independent Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) noted on Wednesday that the existing EU ban on crude oil imports from Russia, combined with the oil price cap, are costing the Kremlin’s coffers around $172 million per day. CREA notes that Russia’s fossil fuel export earnings dropped by 17% in December, representing its lowest level since it invaded Ukraine in the Spring of last year. “The fall in shipment volumes and prices for Russian oil has cut the country?s export revenues by EUR 180 million per day. Russia managed to claw back EUR 20 million per day by increasing exports of refined oil products to the EU and to the rest of the world, resulting in a net daily loss of EUR 160 million,” according to the report. Further, the report notes that this not only caused a 12% reduction in Russia’s crude oil exports, but also a 23% drop in its selling prices for an overall drop of 32% in crude oil revenues in December. Still, CREA states, Russia is “still making an estimated EUR 640 mn per day from exporting fossil fuels, down from a high of EUR 1000 mn in March to May 2022”. “The EU?s ban on refined oil imports, the extension of the price cap to refined oil and reductions in pipeline oil imports to Poland will slash this by an estimated EUR 120 mn per day by February 5”. The European Union’s ban on the purchase, import or maritime transport of Russian crude oil that went into effect on December 5 will be expanded to include other refined petroleum products starting on February 5. Additionally, under G7 price cap measures, Russian oil is limited to a selling price of $60 per barrel. By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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Post by Blitz on Jan 19, 2023 9:08:08 GMT -5
Damn, this is looking like Poo-tin is getting desperate and that's rarely a good thing because desperate people do dumb things. And now this... Putin ally Medvedev warns NATO of nuclear war if Russia is defeated in Ukraine Guy Faulconbridge and Felix Light - Thu, January 19, 2023 www.yahoo.com/entertainment/putin-ally-medvedev-warns-nuclear-074558491.htmlMOSCOW (Reuters) -Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, an ally of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, warned NATO on Thursday that the defeat of Russia in Ukraine could trigger a nuclear war. Striking a similar tone at what he described as an anxious time for the country, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church said trying to destroy Russia would mean the end of the world. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Medvedev has repeatedly raised the threat of a nuclear apocalypse, but his admission now of the possibility of Russia's defeat indicates the level of Moscow's concern over increased Western weapons deliveries to Ukraine. "The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war," Medvedev, who serves as deputy chairman of Putin's powerful security council, said in a post on Telegram. "Nuclear powers have never lost major conflicts on which their fate depends," said Medvedev, who served as president from 2008 to 2012. Medvedev said NATO and other defence leaders, due to meet at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Friday to talk about strategy and support for the West's attempt to defeat Russia in Ukraine, should think about the risks of their policy. Russia and the United States, by far the largest nuclear powers, hold around 90% of the world's nuclear warheads. Putin is the ultimate decision maker on the use of nuclear weapons. Asked if Medvedev's remarks signified that Russia was escalating the crisis to a new level, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "No, it absolutely does not mean that." He said Medvedev's remarks were in full accordance with Russia's nuclear doctrine which allows for a nuclear strike after "aggression against the Russian Federation with conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened". While NATO has conventional military superiority over Russia, when it comes to nuclear weapons, Russia has nuclear superiority over the alliance in Europe. Putin casts Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine as an existential battle with an aggressive and arrogant West, and has said that Russia will use all available means to protect itself and its people. "ALARMING TIME" Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine has triggered one of the deadliest European conflicts since World War Two and the biggest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. The United States and its allies have condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine as an imperial land grab, while Ukraine has vowed to fight until the last Russian soldier is ejected from its territory. Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, said in a sermon: "We pray to the Lord that he bring the madmen to reason and help them understand that any desire to destroy Russia will mean the end of the world." "Today is an alarming time," state news agency RIA quoted him as saying. "But we believe that the Lord will not leave Russian land." NOT BACKING DOWN Since a grim New Year's Eve message describing the West as Russia's true enemy in the war on Ukraine, Putin has sent several signals that Russia will not back down. He has despatched hypersonic missiles to the Atlantic and appointed his top general to run the war. Putin said on Wednesday that Russia's powerful military-industrial complex was ramping up production and was one of the main reasons why his country would prevail in Ukraine. Washington has not detailed in public what it would do if Putin ordered what would be the first use of nuclear weapons in war since the United States unleashed the first atomic bomb attacks on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns cautioned Putin's spy chief Sergei Naryshkin in November about the consequences of any use of nuclear weapons by Russia, U.S. officials said at the time. Russia has 5,977 nuclear warheads while the United States has 5,428, China 350, France 290 and the United Kingdom 225, according to the Federation of American Scientists. Medvedev, 57, who once presented himself as a reformer who was ready to work with the United States to liberalise Russia, has recast himself since the war as the most publicly hawkish member of Putin's circle. He said that the nuclear risks of the Ukraine crisis should be obvious to any Western politicians who had "preserved at least some traces of intelligence". (Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge in Moscow and Felix Light in Tbilisi; Editing by Mark Trevelyan)
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Post by Blitz on Mar 4, 2023 10:15:49 GMT -5
Russia’s Oil Revenues Plunged By 48% In February By Charles Kennedy - Mar 03, 2023, 8:30 AM CST oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Oil-Revenues-Plunged-By-48-In-February.htmlRussian tax revenue from crude oil and petroleum products plummeted by 48% in February from a year earlier due to the much lower price of Russia’s flagship crude grade after the EU banned imports of Russian oil, according to Bloomberg estimates based on official Russian data. Total tax revenues from oil and natural gas dipped by 46% year over year to $6.9 billion (521 billion Russian rubles) in February, per data from the Russian Finance Ministry published on Friday. Russia’s revenues from crude oil and oil products alone crumbled by 48% annually to $4.8 billion (361 billion rubles), according to Bloomberg’s calculations. Oil accounted for more than two-thirds of Russia’s energy tax revenue in February. Russian natural gas revenues also plummeted last month compared to February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Natural gas revenues slumped by 42% as Russia cut off gas supplies to a number of EU customers after the invasion. The plunge in the price of the flagship Russian crude grade, Urals, was the key reason for the lower revenues for the country for both January and February this year. Russia’s budget was $23.3 billion (1.76 trillion rubles) into deficit in January, compared to a surplus for January 2022, as state revenues from oil and gas plunged by 46.4% due to the low price of Urals and lower natural gas exports, the Russian Finance Ministry said last month. Russia’s budget revenues from oil and gas plunged in January by 46% compared to the same month last year due to the sanctions on Russian oil exports, which led to a slump in the price of Russia’s flagship crude grade. The average price of the Urals blend stood at $49.52 per barrel in January and February 2023, compared to $88.89 per barrel for the same months last year, the Russian Finance Ministry said earlier this week. The price of Urals averaged $49.56 a barrel in February 2023, or 1.86 times lower than the average price in February 2022 – $92.15 per barrel. By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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Post by Blitz on Mar 11, 2023 14:11:37 GMT -5
MURDER INC. Bloodthirsty ‘mafia boss’ Putin killing Russian elite to cling to power as 39 oligarchs & officials mysteriously die Henry Holloway - Published: Mar 11 2023 www.the-sun.com/news/7603864/putin-killing-russian-elite-mob-boss/Excerpt: VLADIMIR Putin is presiding over a "mafia" state where murder is a tool used to defeat his enemies and to scare his uneasy allies into keeping in line. Experts believe the deaths of at least 39 high profile figures - ranging from oligarchs to scientists and even generals - could show the shadowy and bloodstained hand of the Kremlin. Dozens of high profile figures have died since Putin launched his bloody war in Ukraine over a year ago - with many in odd circumstances, such as sudden "suicides" and falls from windows. Sergey Grishin - the so-called "Scarface" oligarch who sold Meghan and Harry their California mansion - died this week from sepsis after criticising Putin. And meanwhile Russian scientist Andrey Botikov - who created the "Sputnik V" vaccine - was strangled with a belt in his apartment last week. Both men were two of the latest to join the staggering body count of high profile deaths of people linked to Mad Vlad. Jon Sweet, a retired US Army Military Intelligence Officer, and Mark Toth, a national security analyst, described Putin as running "modern-day FSB version of Murder Inc." Murder Inc. was an organised crime group that operated in the US - and is believed to have been responsible for more than 1,000 contact killings in the 1930s. "Anyone seen as a potential threat seems to have an attraction to an open window," Sweet told The Sun Online. Putin's regime of course has never admitted to anything - and has always dealt with the deaths of their enemies with a wry smile.
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Post by Blitz on Mar 14, 2023 10:52:14 GMT -5
Poo-tin's armed forces have been exposed as not ready for prime time... FORBES BUSINESS AEROSPACE & DEFENSE Russia’s Best Tank Army Might Have No Choice But To Reequip With 60-Year-old T-62s David Axe - Forbes Staff, Mar 13, 2023,04:43pm EDT www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/03/13/russias-best-tank-army-might-have-no-choice-but-to-reequip-with-60-year-old-t-62s/?sh=b1aa4b362420A T-62 lays a smokescreen in 1984. Russia’s tank shortage has gotten so dire that the United Kingdom for one believes the Russian army’s best tank formation, the 1st Guards Tank Army, might have to reequip with T-62s from the 1960s or ’70s. “The Russian military has continued to respond to heavy armored vehicle losses by deploying 60-year-old T-62 main battle tanks,” the U.K. Defense Ministry stated on March 6. “There is a realistic possibility that even units of the 1st Guards Tank Army, supposedly Russia’s premier tank force, will be re-equipped with T-62s to make up for previous losses.” If the 1st GTA indeed does get T-62s, it would represent a profound reversal for the once-vaunted tank army and its three divisions and three separate brigades. Before Russia widened its war on Ukraine a little over a year ago, the 1st GTA, which normally garrisons near Moscow, was slated eventually to swap its T-72 and T-80 tanks for Russia’s newest tank, the high-tech T-14. But the 55-ton, three-person T-14 with its cutting-edge optics and highly-automated turret always was a boutique vehicle. Each of the dozen or so T-14 prototypes that the Uralvagonzavod tank plant in Sverdlovsk Oblast has produced are hand-built, powered by a delicate Russian copy of a German X-shaped diesel engine and come fitted with high-end electronics that Russian industry can’t manufacture in bulk—and also can’t import, owing to post-invasion sanctions. Before February 2022, the T-14 was unlikely to enter mass production. After February 2022, a big T-14 run became an industrial fantasy. And that was before the Russian army lost as many as 2,000 tanks in Ukraine. Today Russia’s two tank factories—Uralvagonzavod and also Omsktransmash in Omsk Oblast—are struggling to produce more than 20 new T-72B3 and T-90M tanks a month while also restoring old, stored T-72s as well as equally aged T-80s and even older stored T-62s. The two factories together can refurbish an estimated 50 old tanks a month. There’s no money or manpower to make T-14s, and there are no parts, either. So when the 1st GTA suffered devastating equipment losses in back-to-back battlefield defeats—first around Kyiv in the spring of 2022 and then around Kharkiv six months later—the army only could reequip with older tank types. The problem, for the 1st GTA, is that there aren’t very many T-90s left. Uralvagonzavod has built around 600 of the 50-ton, diesel-powered tanks. The Ukrainians have destroyed or captured at least 40. A year ago, there were around 2,000 fairly modern diesel T-72B3s or similar T-72 variants in Russian service. But the Russians have written off three-quarters of them—and a recent recount by one independent analyst seems to confirm that there are as few as 500 T-72s in recoverable storage. The situation is equally dire when it comes to the 45-ton T-80. The Russians went to war with around 450 diesel T-80Us and gas-turbine T-80BVs, lost pretty much all of them in Ukraine and have had to restore 45-year-old T-80Bs in order to make good those losses. As Russia’s tank stocks dwindle, the Kremlin has had no choice but to dip into its vast stock of potentially thousands of T-62s that Omsktransmash built in the 1960s and ’70s and upgraded in the ’80s. The 40-ton tank has four crew and a 115-millimeter main gun, making it a whole other animal compared to the three-crew T-72, T-80, T-90 and T-14 with their autoloaders, three-person crews and 125-millimeter guns. The T-62 is an antique. Its armor is thin by modern standards. Its optics lack range and clarity. Omsktransmash has installed newer 1PN96MT-02 gunner’s sights and reactive armor blocks on some, but not all, of the 800 T-62Ms it’s been refurbishing for the Ukraine war. But the 1PN96MT-02 still is obsolete by Western standards, and a few blocks of add-on armor can’t save a T-62 from a Javelin anti-tank missile. In reequipping with T-62s, a Russian tank brigade travels back into the past, technologically speaking—to the 1980s if not the ’70s. If the 1st Guards Tank Army does indeed get T-62s to replace the hundreds of T-72s and T-80s its divisions and brigades have lost, the once-powerful army will possess just a fraction of its former combat power. We should know soon. After spending a few months in Belarus resting and inducting fresh draftees, the army began deploying forces—including the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division and 47th Guards Tanks Division—south into eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. Reequipped 1st GTA units could see major combat soon.
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Post by Blitz on Mar 18, 2023 8:25:58 GMT -5
It's a start... Arrest warrant issued for Vladimir Putin by International Criminal Court over Ukraine war The court said in a statement that Vladimir Putin "is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of the population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation" ICC President issues arrest warrant for President Putin ByRachel Hagan - World News Reporter 15:23, 17 Mar 2023UPDATED16:20, 17 Mar 2023 www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-arrest-warrant-issued-vladimir-29486566Excerpt: An arrest warrant has been issued by the International Criminal Court for Russian President Vladimir Putin's war crimes over his involvement in the abduction of children from Ukraine. Ukraine's presidential advisor for children's rights, Daria Herasymchuk, last month reported that almost 14,000 Ukrainian children have been abducted. The International Criminal Court (ICC) said in a statement that Putin bore individual criminal responsibility for the abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children which amounts to war crimes. It also issued a warrant for the arrest of Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, the Commissioner for Children's Rights in the Office of the President of the Russian Federation on similar allegations.
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Post by Blitz on Mar 21, 2023 9:06:08 GMT -5
More EU countries are doing this as China becomes Russia's biggest oil and gas customer... And the USA sets record gas deliveries to Europe. And now this... Italy achieves energy independence from Russia with new floating LNG import terminal Alberto Brambilla, Bloomberg March 20, 2023 www.worldoil.com/news/2023/3/20/italy-achieves-energy-independence-from-russia-with-new-floating-lng-import-terminal/(Bloomberg) — Italy took a key step toward securing energy independence from Russia with the arrival of a new facility to import liquefied natural gas (LNG). LNG vessel on the water The Golar Tundra floating storage regasification unit docked Sunday night in Piombino, on the coast of Tuscany. The LNG terminal is one of two that will allow Italy to replace gas flows via pipeline from Russia, which are already near historic lows. Italy imported around 40% of its gas from Russia before the invasion of Ukraine and moved quickly under Prime Minister Mario Draghi to reduce it, mostly thanks to flows from north African countries such as Algeria. Russia now accounts for less than 10% of Italy’s imports and the aim is to fully replace it by winter 2024, according to Eni SpA. Italy’s state-controlled gas network operator Snam SpA bought the Golar Tundra last year and refurbished it as a floating LNG terminal in recent months. A second terminal is expected later this year in Ravenna, on the country’s eastern coast. “Italy signed agreements with alternative countries to Russia for the import of approximately 18 billion cubic meters of gas per year,” Simona Benedettini, an independent gas market consultant, said in an interview. The Piombino terminal is of “vital importance to cut dependency from Russian gas, especially in view of the upcoming winter which may not be as mild as that of this year.” The terminal is expected to be operational in May.
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Post by Blitz on Mar 25, 2023 10:44:57 GMT -5
Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark struck a deal to run their 200+ advanced fighter jets as a single fleet, creating a new headache for Russia Alia Shoaib - Sat, March 25, 2023 www.yahoo.com/news/norway-sweden-finland-denmark-struck-104242982.htmlNorwegian F-35 fighter jets pictured over Norway on March 22, 2022.John Thys/AFP via Getty Images - The four Nordic countries agreed to operate their roughly 250 fighter jets in one fleet. Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark, have modern air forces that include F-35s. They joined forces hoping to deter Russia. The air forces of four Nordic countries agreed to operate their fleets of around 250 fighter jets as a combined force, hoping to deter Russia by working together. Air force commanders of Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark said Friday that they have signed a letter of intent to establish a unified Nordic air defense, Reuters reported. "The ultimate goal is to be able to operate seamlessly together as one force by developing a Nordic concept for joint air operations based on already known NATO methodology," Denmark's air force said in a statement, per Bloomberg. "Our combined fleet can be compared to a large European country," commander of the Danish air force, Major General Jan Dam, told Reuters. Dam said the move was in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year. The invasion also prompted Sweden and Finland to seek entry into NATO, an alliance which already includes Denmark and Norway. The joint force will be a worry for Russia, boasting a significant number of top-tier fighter jets. Norway, Denmark, and Finland have all committed to the F-35 jets which are the most advanced Western fighter planes. Norway operates some already, while Finland and Denmark are due to receive them in the coming years. Sweden has its own model of fighter jet, the Gripen C and D, with modernized Gripen E planes on order. NATO Air Command chief General James Hecker was also present at the signing of the letter at Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany. Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO in May 2022, jolted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine into ending decades of their position of "non-alignment." Their applications have been held up by Turkey and Hungary, who are yet to ratify the memberships. One of the many reasons cited by Russian President Vladimir Putin as justification for his invasion of Ukraine has been NATO's enlargement since the Cold War. However, Russia's war in Ukraine led to further expansion of the alliance, and increased co-operation and defense spending by its members. Read the original article on Business Insider ///////////////////// Nordic countries plan joint air defence to counter Russian threat Sweden's Air Force Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighter takes off during the AFX 18 exercise in Amari military air base Fri, March 24, 2023 at 12:18 PM EDT COPENHAGEN (Reuters) - Air force commanders from Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark said on Friday they have signed a letter of intent to create a unified Nordic air defence aimed at countering the rising threat from Russia. The intention is to be able to operate jointly based on already known ways of operating under NATO, according to statements by the four countries' armed forces. The move to integrate the air forces was triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February last year, commander of the Danish air force, Major General Jan Dam, told Reuters. "Our combined fleet can be compared to a large European country," Dam said. Norway has 57 F-16 fighter jets and 37 F-35 fighter jets with 15 more of the latter on order. Finland has 62 F/A-18 Hornet jets and 64 F-35s on order, while Denmark has 58 F-16s and 27 F-35s on order. Sweden has more than 90 Gripens jets. It was unclear how many of those planes were operational. The signing at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany last week was attended by NATO Air Command chief General James Hecker, who also oversees the U.S. Air Force in the region. Sweden and Finland applied to join the trans-Atlantic military alliance last year. But the process has been held up by Turkey, which along with Hungary has yet to ratify the memberships. The Nordic air force commanders first discussed the closer cooperation at a meeting in November in Sweden. "We would like to see if we can integrate our airspace surveillance more, so we can use radar data from each other's surveillance systems and use them collectively," Dam said. "We are not doing that today." (Reporting by Johannes Birkebaek and Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen; additional reporting by Terje Solsvik, Niklas Pollard and Anne Kauranen; Editing by Nick Macfie)
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Post by Blitz on Mar 25, 2023 10:47:52 GMT -5
Turkey says it will ratify Finland's bid to join NATO March 17, 2023 By Rob Schmitz www.npr.org/2023/03/17/1164236651/turkey-finland-nato-erdogan-swedenTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, right, and Finland's President Sauli Niinisto shake hands during a welcome ceremony at the presidential palace in Ankara, Turkey, on Friday. Burhan Ozbilici/AP Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says his country will start the ratification process for Finland's membership to NATO. The announcement caps a nearly 10-month wait for Finland to join the alliance as Erdogan has delayed a decision on the matter. "NATO will become stronger with Finland's membership and thus, I believe, will play an active role in maintaining global security and stability," Erdogan said Friday in a joint press conference in Ankara with Finnish President Sauli Ninnistö. In May 2022, Finnish and Swedish officials announced plans to join the NATO alliance, an historic shift for both countries. But the road to NATO membership has been a long one and promises to be even longer for Sweden, which is still waiting on Erdogan. He has vowed not to sign off on Stockholm's bid unless it returns more than 120 members of Kurdish militant groups. Turkey considers them terrorists and accuses Sweden of harboring them. "We will continue our talks with Sweden on the basis of NATO's principles and our approach to the fight against terrorism," said Erdogan. Finland, which shares an 810-mile border with Russia, has remained neutral for years. But since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, support for NATO membership inside the Scandinavian country has risen dramatically. In a statement, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said, "The United States welcomes President Erdogan's announcement that he will send Finland's NATO accession protocols to the Turkish Parliament and looks forward to the prompt conclusion of that process. We encourage Türkiye to quickly ratify Sweden's accession protocols as well." Rob Schmitz reported from Berlin. Fatma Tanis reported from Adana, Turkey.
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Post by Blitz on Mar 25, 2023 10:50:18 GMT -5
Here's a way to look at this news... What are the estimated Russian Casualties in Ukraine? U.S. officials estimate that more than 200,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the start of the invasion. U.S. and European officials have said the toll is likely to continue to rise in the coming weeks as Russia mounts more offensive operations in the east to try to gain momentum in the war. Feb 17, 2023 And now this... NATO to boost rapid reaction force to 300,000 troops: Stoltenberg NATO says it will increase the size of its rapid reaction forces to 300,000 troops in the ‘biggest overhaul’ of defence since the Cold War. The NATO rapid reaction force is to increase from 40,000 to 300,000 soldiers, who can deploy quickly when needed [File: Ints Kalnins/Reuters] Published On 27 Jun 2022 www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/27/nato-to-boost-rapid-reaction-force-ukraine-military-support?traffic_source=KeepReadingNATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that the Western military alliance will increase the size of its rapid reaction forces nearly eightfold to 300,000 troops as part of its response to an “era of strategic competition”. The NATO reaction force currently numbers around 40,000 soldiers, who can deploy quickly when needed. Coupled with other measures including the deployment of forces to defend specific allies, Stoltenberg said on Monday that the move to expand NATO forces is part of the “biggest overhaul of collective defence and deterrence since the Cold War”. He made the remarks at a news conference ahead of a NATO summit in Madrid, Spain on Tuesday, when the 30 military allies in the bloc are expected to also agree on further support to Ukraine after its invasion by Russia. Stoltenberg said he expects allies to make clear they consider Russia “as the most significant and direct threat to our security”. Another central theme at the NATO summit will be the possibility for Finland and Sweden to join the alliance following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. NATO member Turkey has so far blocked their applications, citing what it considers to be the two countries’ soft approach to organisations Turkey considers to be “terrorist”, such as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK. Turkey is demanding that Sweden and Finland grant extradition requests for individuals who are wanted by Turkish authorities. Ankara also wants assurances that arms restrictions imposed by the two countries over Turkey’s 2019 military incursion into northern Syria will be removed. Stoltenberg said that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson have agreed to meet on the sidelines of the Madrid summit. SOURCE: AP
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Post by Blitz on Mar 27, 2023 7:36:59 GMT -5
Poo-tin's military is being exposed as incompetent. Their pilots mistakenly ram drones. Their Navy's ships sink because they cannot defend themselves. Their tanks have become coffins. Their Army cannot fight coordinated ops and shoot at each other with many pretending to be dead on the battlefield so that can be captured rather killed. And their generals are falling out of windows from tall buildings. The fight has devolved in a war of attrition by artillery and they are running out of shells. Well, at least Poo-tin's can be a trophy on Xi's wall and Russia will be vassal state of China. And now this... F-35 Sales Rise as Russian Invasion Grinds On Air Force general says recent deals show how NATO allies are stepping up as the U.S. focuses on China. BY AUDREY DECKER - MARCH 23, 2023 www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/03/f-35-sales-rise-russian-invasion-grinds/384360/Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine boosted F-35 sales as NATO is “stepping up to the plate” to deter Russia, according to the Air Force’s top Europe commander. Allied nations know that the U.S. is focused on China, said Gen. James Hecker, commander of U.S. Air Forces Europe and Air Forces Africa. So when the U.S. decided to move F-16s from Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany to Kadena Air Base in Japan, it didn’t come as a surprise to NATO, he said. The general has been telling NATO “all along” that “they have to become less dependent on us and more dependent upon themselves, so we're on that road going forward.” And NATO is stepping up to the plate, Hecker said at a Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies event on Wednesday. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, four countries committed to buying F-35s, showing the “exact opposite” effect that Putin intended, Hecker said. Finland, Switzerland, and Germany all signed Letters of Offer and Acceptance for F-35s in the last year. Canada announced its formal procurement agreement in January. By 2034, more than 600 F-35s will be operating in Europe, Hecker said, and “out of those 600, there's only going to be about 50 that are U.S.—so over 90 percent are going to be our partners and allies.” Sweden and Finland’s bid to join NATO will bring a lot to the fight, Hecker added, pointing to the former’s plan to upgrade to Gripen E/Fs and the latter’s effort to buy 60 F-35s. “They provide a great capability and great geography that is going to help us should we have to invoke Article Five—we obviously hope that we don't,” he said. Hecker said the Air Force, which began flying intensive combat air patrols in Europe after the Russian invasion last year, has now throttled back to “steady state” operations: routine missions intended to help keep the conflict contained inside Ukraine. “We will do some combat air patrols, fully loaded with live missiles and things for deterrence, but what I think is even more of a deterrent is now when we deploy units over there, we practice missions that we would actually do, should we have to invoke Article Five,” Hecker said. The Air Force also intends to ask all F-35 customers to help fund the cost of upgrading the engine that powers the jet, Breaking Defense reported. The upgrade, which will add power and cooling for next-gen weapons and systems, will be ready late in the first quarter or early in the second quarter of fiscal year 2030, F-35 Joint Program Office spokesperson Russell Goemaere told Defense One. When asked how long it will take to retrofit existing F-35s with the engine upgrade, Goemaere said that decision will come after the program’s acquisition strategy is finalized. The Air Force is requesting 48 F-35As in its 2024 budget request, five more jets than Congress approved last year. The service has about 350 F-35s and plans to buy a total of 1,763.
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Post by Blitz on Apr 7, 2023 9:18:49 GMT -5
Excerpt: Falling Russian oil and gas revenue translates into big budget deficit Reports that the Kremlin is ready to allow a payment for the acquisition of former Shell assets increased pressure on the ruble 7 April 2023 www.upstreamonline.com/politics/falling-russian-oil-and-gas-revenue-translates-into-big-budget-deficit/2-1-1431824Russia's federal budget balance sank to a deficit of 2.4 trillion roubles ($29 billion) in the first quarter of the year as Moscow spent heavily and energy revenues fell, the finance ministry said on Friday. In the same quarter of 2022 Russia posted a surplus of 1.13 trillion roubles. Since then significant outlays to support its military campaign in Ukraine and a wall of Western sanctions on its oil and gas exports have hit government coffers. The finance ministry stopped publishing monthly budget fulfilment data last year, but Friday's figures suggested that Russia achieved a surplus of 181 billion roubles in March but this apparently followed deficits of 821 billion roubles in February and 1.76...
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Post by Blitz on Apr 9, 2023 7:46:30 GMT -5
I recently read that 40+ top Russian government and military leaders have died of the Poo-tin pandemic purge... Well, they were actually murdered by Putin's henchmen. And to make matters worse for Poo-tin, now everyone knows that Russia's military is inept. And now this... Leaked Documents Reveal Depth of U.S. Spy Efforts and Russia’s Military Struggles April 8, 2023 dnyuz.com/2023/04/08/leaked-documents-reveal-depth-of-u-s-spy-efforts-and-russias-military-struggles/WASHINGTON — A trove of leaked Pentagon documents reveals how deeply Russia’s security and intelligence services have been penetrated by the United States, demonstrating Washington’s ability to warn Ukraine about planned strikes and providing an assessment of the strength of Moscow’s war machine. The documents paint a portrait of a depleted Russian military that is struggling in its war in Ukraine and of a military apparatus that is deeply compromised. They contain daily real-time warnings to American intelligence agencies on the timing of Moscow’s strikes and even its specific targets. Such intelligence has allowed the United States to pass on to Ukraine crucial information on how to defend itself. The documents lay bare the American assessment of a Ukrainian military that is also in dire straits. The documents, from late February and early March but found on social media sites in recent days, outline critical shortages of air defense munitions and discuss the gains being made by Russian troops around the eastern city of Bakhmut. The intelligence reports show that the United States also appears to be spying on Ukraine’s top military and political leaders, a reflection of Washington’s struggle to get a clear view of Ukraine’s fighting strategies. The material reinforces an idea that intelligence officials have long acknowledged: The United States has a clearer understanding of Russian military operations than it does of Ukrainian planning. Intelligence collection is often difficult and sometimes wrong, but the trove of documents offers perhaps the most complete picture yet of the inner workings of the largest land war in Europe in decades. American officials said while the documents offer hints about U.S. methods to collect information on Russian plans, U.S. intelligence agencies do not yet know if any of their sources of information will be cut off as a result of the leak. American officials have conceded they have lost some sources of information since the war began, but the new documents appear to show that America’s understanding of Russian planning remains extensive. But the leak has the potential to do real damage to Ukraine’s war effort by exposing which Russian agencies the United States knows the most about, giving Moscow a potential opportunity to cut off the sources of information. The leak has already complicated relations with allied countries and raised doubts about America’s ability to keep its secrets. After reviewing the documents, a senior Western intelligence official said the release of the material was painful and suggested that it could curb intelligence sharing. For various agencies to provide material to each other, the official said, requires trust and assurances that certain sensitive information will be kept secret. The documents could also hurt diplomatic ties in other ways. The newly reveal intelligence documents also make plain that the U.S. is not just spying on Russia, but also its allies. While that will hardly surprise officials, making such eavesdropping public always hampers relations with key partners, like South Korea, whose help is needed to supply Ukraine with weaponry. Senior U.S. officials said an inquiry, launched Friday by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, would try to move swiftly to determine the source of the leak. The officials acknowledged that the documents appear to be legitimate intelligence and operational briefs compiled by the Pentagon’s Joint Staff, using reports from the government’s intelligence community, but that at least one had been modified from the original at some later point. One senior U.S. official called the leak “a massive intelligence breach,” made worse because it lays out to Russia just how deep American intelligence operatives have managed to get into the Russian military apparatus. Officials within the U.S. government with security clearance often receive such documents through daily emails, one official said, and those emails might then be automatically forwarded to other people. Another senior U.S. official said tracking down the original source of the leak could be difficult because hundreds, if not thousands, of military and other U.S. government officials have the security clearances needed to gain access to the documents. The official said that the Pentagon had instituted procedures in the past few days to “lock down” the distribution of highly sensitive briefing documents. The documents posted online were photographs of folded papers, some with images of a magazine behind them, information that may help investigators. The documents show that nearly every Russian security service appears penetrated by the United States in some way. For example, one entry, marked top secret, discusses the Russian General Staff’s plans to counter the tanks NATO countries were providing to Ukraine, including creating different “fire zones” and beginning training of Russian soldiers on the vulnerabilities of different allied tanks. Another entry talks about an information campaign being planned by the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence unit, in Africa trying to shape public opinion against the United States and “promote Russian foreign policy.” While some of the intelligence briefs offer analysis and broad warnings of Russian plans, others are the kind of actionable information that Ukraine could use to defend itself. One entry talks about the Russian Defense Ministry formulating plans to conduct missile strikes on Ukraine’s forces at specific sites in Odesa and Mykolaiv on March 3, an attack that the U.S. intelligence agencies believed would be designed to destroy a drone storage area, an air defense gun and kill Ukrainian soldiers. Still another entry discusses a report in February disseminated by Russia’s National Defense Command Center about the “decreased combat capability” of Russia’s forces in Eastern Ukraine. While the documents were compiled by the Pentagon’s Joint Staff, they contain intelligence from many agencies, including the National Security Agency, the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, and the Central Intelligence Agency. Some of the material is labeled as having been collected under the Federal Intelligence Surveillance Act, or F.I.S.A., noting that its further distribution is not allowed without the permission of the attorney general. One section of the documents is labeled as being the C.I.A. Operations Center Intelligence Update from March 2. That section discusses intelligence on how the Russian ministry of defense had considered steps to counter accusations that it had not been supplying munitions to Wagner group troops in Ukraine “according to a signals intelligence report.” The documents reveal that American intelligence services are not only spying on the Russians, but are also eavesdropping on important allies. In the pages posted online, there are at least two discussions about South Korea’s debate about whether to give the U.S. artillery shells for use in Ukraine, violating Seoul’s policy on providing lethal aid. One section of the documents reports that South Korean officials were worried that President Biden would call South Korea’s president pressuring Seoul to deliver the goods. Another section of the documents, from the C.I.A., is more explicit about how the United States has learned about the South Korean deliberations, noting the information was from “a signals intelligence report.”
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Post by Blitz on Apr 9, 2023 10:05:49 GMT -5
Excerpt: Putin prepares for an invasion of Crimea: Beaches are covered with trenches and tank traps to repel an amphibious landing as Zelensky 'prepares spring offensive' Beaches have been rendered virtually unusable wiping out the summer season By WILL STEWART and MILO POPE - PUBLISHED: 06:10 EDT, 8 April 2023 www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11951857/Crimeas-beaches-covered-trenches-tank-traps.htmlBarricades and trenches have been built on beaches and close to key access routes in Crimea on a massive scale as Vladimir Putin is scared of losing the peninsula he annexed in 2014. The level of fear is clear from the abundance of defences to stop a sea or land assault. Dragon's teeth tank traps have been placed at strategic Ak-Monai beside the Taurida highway by occupying Russians to stop a Ukrainian bid to grab back the peninsula Putin took in 2014. Putin has accepted he must decimate the region's huge tourism industry this summer to hold it against a possible Ukrainian advance as part of an expected Kyiv counteroffensive. The scale of the operation is seen on both satellite images and ground level pictures.
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Post by Blitz on Apr 10, 2023 6:51:44 GMT -5
Things just keep getting worse for Poo-tin. This was one of the things he was trying to prevent because Finland has such a large border butting right up against his Motherland. Now it's part of NATO and an attack on one NATO country is the same as an attack on all NATO countries. And now this... Finland’s NATO entry raises nuclear war stakes Traditionally neutral nation’s accession to US-led alliance will compel an increasingly encircled Moscow to flex its nuclear muscles By M.K. BHADRAKUMAR - APRIL 10, 2023 asiatimes.com/2023/04/finlands-nato-entry-raises-nuclear-war-stakes/Finland has acceded to NATO. Image: CBS / Screengrab The national flag of Finland was raised for the first time at the headquarters of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Brussels on April 4, which also marked the 74th anniversary of the Western alliance. It signifies for Finland a historic abandonment of its policy of neutrality. Not even propagandistically can anyone say Finland has encountered a security threat from Russia. This is an act of motiveless malignity toward Russia on the part of NATO, which of course invariably carries the imprimatur of the US while being projected to the world audience as a sovereign choice by Finland against the backdrop of Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. Quintessentially, this can only be regarded as yet another move by the US, after the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines last September, with the deliberate intent to complicate Russia’s relations with Europe and render it intractable for the foreseeable future. On the other hand, suffice it to say this will also make Europe’s security landscape even more precarious and make it even more dependent on the US as the provider of its security. The general expectation is that Sweden’s accession to NATO will now follow, possibly in time for the alliance’s summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, in July. In effect, the US has ensured that the core issue behind the standoff between Russia and the West – that is, the expansion of NATO to Russia’s borders – is a fait accompli no matter the failure of its proxy war in Ukraine against Russia. Responding to the development, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned on April 4 that Finland’s NATO membership will force Russia “to take countermeasures to ensure our own tactical and strategic security,” as Helsinki’s military alignment is an “escalation of the situation” and an “encroachment on Russia’s security.” The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that Moscow “will be forced to take retaliatory measures of both military-technical and other nature in order to stop threats to our national security.” Finland’s NATO membership would extend NATO’s front line with Russia by 1,300 kilometers (the length of the border Finland shares with Russia), which will put more pressure on Russia’s northwestern regions. Don’t be surprised if NATO missiles are deployed to Finland at some point, leaving Russia no option but to deploy its nuclear weapons close to the Baltic region and Scandinavia. Suffice to say, the military confrontation between NATO and Russia is set to deteriorate further and the possibility of a nuclear conflict is on the rise. It is hard to see Russia failing to preserve its second-strike capability at any cost or prevent the US from gaining nuclear superiority and maintain the global strategic balance. The focus will be on upgrading defensive nuclear capabilities rather than on conventional forces, compelling Russia to demonstrate its nuclear strength. Russia has already front-loaded its deterrent by deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in response to the UK’s irresponsible decision to provide depleted-uranium munition to Ukraine. It is all but certain that Russia will also double down in the Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, the US has long deployed tactical nuclear weapons in European countries, including Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey, which means the US has long deployed its tactical nuclear weapons at Russia’s doorstep, posing a significant threat to Russia’s national security. Russia’s deployment in Belarus is aimed at deterring the US’ potential provocations, anticipating what is about to happen. Belarus’ geographical location is such that if Russian tactical nuclear weapons are deployed there, it will have a huge strategic deterrent effect on several NATO countries such Poland, Germany, the Baltic states and even the Nordic countries. A vicious cycle is developing, escalating the nuclear arms race and ultimately developing into a doomsday situation that no one wants to see. The big picture is that knowing fully well that the situation could become extremely dangerous, the US is nonetheless relentlessly piling pressure on Russia with the objective of perpetuating its hegemonic system. Ronald Reagan’s strategy to use extreme pressure tactics to weaken the former Soviet Union and ultimately drag it down is once again at work. In immediate terms, all this would have negative consequences for the conflict in Ukraine. It is plain to see that Washington no longer seeks peace in Ukraine. In the Joe Biden administration’s strategic calculus, if Russia wins in Ukraine, it means NATO loses, which would permanently damage the US’ trans-Atlantic leadership and global hegemony – simply unthinkable for the Washington establishment. Without doubt, the US-NATO move to persuade Finland (and Sweden) to become NATO members also has a dimension in terms of geoeconomics. The alliance’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, recently stated, “If Finland and Sweden join the alliance, NATO will have more opportunities to control the situation in the Far North.” He explained that “both of these countries have modern armed forces that are able to operate precisely in the harsh conditions of the Far North.” The US hopes that the “expertise” to operate in arctic and sub-arctic conditions that Sweden and Finland can bring into the alliance is invaluable as a potential game changer when a grim struggle is unfolding for the control of the vast mineral resources that lie in the Far North, where Russia has stolen a march so far. A Russian sub in the Arctic. Credit: TASS As polar ice melts at unprecedented speed in the Arctic, the world’s biggest players are eyeing the region as a new “no man’s land” that is up for grabs. Some recent reports have mentioned that moves are afoot for the integration of the air forces of four Nordic countries – Denmark, Norway, Finland and Sweden – undertaken with an undisguised anti-Russian orientation. In military terms, Russia is being forced into sustaining the heavy financial burden of a 360-degree appraisal of its national security agenda. Russia has no alliance system supplementing its military resources. In an important announcement in February, paying heed to the straws in the wind, the Kremlin removed from its Arctic policy all mentions of the so-called Arctic Council, stressing the need to prioritize Russian Arctic interests and striving for greater self-reliance for its Arctic industrial projects. The revised Arctic policy calls for the “development of relations with foreign states on a bilateral basis … taking into account the national interests of the Russian Federation in the Arctic.” This came days after a US State Department official stated that cooperation with Russia in the Arctic was now virtually impossible. This article was produced in partnership by Indian Punchline and Globetrotter, which provided it to Asia Times.
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Post by Blitz on May 15, 2023 10:48:35 GMT -5
Poo-tin has even turned on his pets by not feeding them, leaving them to starve. Now the pets want to take a a bite out of Poo-tin's butt. And now this... Amid feud with Putin, Wagner mercenary leader offered Ukrainians the locations of invading troops in exchange for sparing his for-hire army, leaked documents reveal Katherine Tangalakis-Lippert - Sun, May 14, 2023 at 5:58 PM PDT www.yahoo.com/news/amid-feud-putin-wagner-mercenary-005855176.htmlFounder of Wagner private mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin makes a statement as he stand next to Wagner fighters in an undisclosed location in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict, in this still image taken from video released May 5, 2023. Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has been feuding with Putin over supplies for his mercenaries. WaPo reported leaked intelligence showed Prigozhin offered to sell out Russian troops to Ukraine. In exchange, Prigozhin wanted Ukraine to ease off his for-hire army on the front lines in Bakhmut. In an apparent escalation of Yevgeny Prigozhin's public feud with Vladimir Putin over his for-hire army, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group offered to sell out the locations of Russian troops to Ukrainian officials in exchange for their mercy on the battlefield, according to leaked intelligence documents. The Washington Post reported that US military intelligence documents allegedly shared on a Discord server by Jack Teixeira, a 21-year-old airman at a National Guard unit in Massachusetts, included a briefing on a January meeting between Prigozhin and unnamed Ukrainian officials where the Wagner leader made his desperate offer. In exchange for Ukrainians pulling back from the front lines of battle in Bakhmut, where Wagner mercenaries have faced heavy losses that Prigozhin blames on Putin's lack of support and supplies, Prigozhin would reveal the locations of Russian troops and stand by as Ukraine attacked. Some versions of the leaked documents circulating online have been edited, Insider previously reported, but two anonymous Ukrainian officials confirmed to WaPo that Prigozhin has spoken to Ukrainian intelligence officers on multiple occasions. One official indicated Prigozhin had made the offer regarding Bakhmut more than once but Kyiv leaders, skeptical of his objectives, declined. The document does not specify which Russian troop positions Prigozhin offered to reveal, WaPo reported, and US officials similarly cast doubt on the Wagner leader's intentions. Still, multiple high-level Russian military commanders have been killed near Bakhmut in recent weeks. Prigozhin, who has increasingly criticized Putin for not supplying his troops with enough ammo, vowed earlier this month to pull his troops from the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, the site of one of the longest and bloodiest battles of the Russian invasion. Hours after his announcement, Russia launched a massive incendiary attack on the Ukrainian city using apparent chemical weapons, Insider previously reported. Representatives for the Pentagon, Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, and the Government of the Russian Federation did not immediately respond to Insider's requests for comment. Read the original article on Business Insider
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Post by Blitz on May 15, 2023 10:50:54 GMT -5
Putin is on the ropes. Britain can prepare Ukraine for the final blow Hamish de Bretton-Gordon - Mon, May 15, 2023 at 6:58 AM PDT www.yahoo.com/news/putin-ropes-britain-prepare-ukraine-135809264.htmlRishi Sunak and Volodymyr Zelenskyy The Russians are down, but not quite out. With Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the UK meeting Rishi Sunak, British arms could soon enable the Ukrainian armed forces to deliver the killing blow. Today’s announcement has covered attack drones and air defence missiles; last week, we saw the donation of Storm Shadow missile systems. And, of course, there’s the offer of training for jet pilots. It’s all good stuff, but Britain’s lead must be followed by others. America and Europe must rally and give Kyiv everything it asks for this week; long range missiles do no good on the shelves of warehouses when they could be blowing up Russian tanks. And if we don’t enable Ukraine to finish the war this year, we will be storing up trouble for years to come. What was meant to be a “Special Military Operation” lasting a few weeks has turned into a 15-month military disaster for the Russian autocrat. Things are bad on the battlefield, and a quick scan of the headlines in the last month hints that far worse could be following. In a signal humiliation, the defences of the Kremlin were apparently breached by a drone, while a much-vaunted Russian hypersonic missile, supposedly overmatching anything Nato could muster, was unceremoniously shot out of the sky by a US-provided Patriot missile system. It's not as if all is well at home, either. The price cap on oil exports has forced the Kremlin to tax domestic producers more, slowly eroding its capability to produce in the future. This is only going to get worse as the summer will further lessen demand and reduce prices. Putin’s “magic money tree” is failing him when he needs it most. Meanwhile, the infighting between the Wagner group and the Russian MoD speaks to deep tensions that may further degrade battlefield performance, with Wagner now apparently able to call the shots on tactics and supplies. And the situation is worsening in Ukraine. A short time after their arrival in Ukraine, it is clear that Western tanks and armoured vehicles are almost ready to conduct deadly combined arms manoeuvre warfare. They will brush aside the untrained conscripts thrown onto the front-lines by the Kremlin. Antiquated Russian tanks hauled out of storage won’t last a minute in a scrap with a Challenger 2; the depleted uranium shells fired by the British tanks will punch through them as if they weren’t there, while the return fire is unlikely to do more than scratch the paintwork. What’s more, the operational security around their deployment has been outstanding. We don’t know where they are, or what the plan of attack is; neither do the Russians. The sudden appearance of formations of Western made armour is likely to produce a rout in troops already low in morale, badly led and with little ammunition. Things have become so desperate that the Russians are now apparently using phosphorus bombs to try and burn their way to victory. Using this chemical in civilian areas is a war crime. That won’t stop Putin. He knows that this medieval style of scorched earth warfare proved highly effective for the Russians and Assad Regime in Syria, rapidly becoming their go-to weapon when conventional fighting failed. The last resort was chemical weapons, which we have not yet seen in Ukraine. I would not bet against an increasingly desperate Kremlin turning to their use; they secured Assad’s survival, the West did nothing in response to their deployment, and Putin is aware that failure could be the end of both his regime and his life. It is this fear that could lead to Putin’s deployment of his deadliest weapon. Civilians are being evacuated in droves, and in panic, from the area around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Many analysts believe this is in response to Ukrainian shelling and the threat posed by a strong counterattack spearheaded by modern Western tanks. But while it may be speculation, there are some who believe Moscow may be planning to use the plant as some form of “improvised nuclear device”; a kill-switch for Russian occupation in the area. It seems inconceivable, but how many times have we seen Putin cross red lines we believed inviolable? This war cannot be allowed to drag into next year. We must give the hawks circling Putin the “carrion” they need to remove him. And we must give Zelensky all the military capability needed to kick the Russians out of Ukraine.
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Post by Blitz on May 16, 2023 19:19:13 GMT -5
Russian Forces Fall Back In Bakhmut By Editorial Dept - May 12, 2023, 9:26 AM CDT oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russian-Forces-Fall-Back-In-Bakhmut.htmlKyiv said mid-week that Russian forces had withdrawn from parts of the key battlefield of Bakhmut as a result of Ukrainian counterattacks. The fallback is not a rout but indicates Russia has retreated in some areas by up to a mile. The battle in Bakhmut has been a litmus test for Putin’s patience with his much-needed but dangerous reliance on Wagner mercenaries. Indications continue to surface that this relationship is becoming highly fractured. Just prior to Kyiv’s announcement that Russia had withdrawn from some positions, Wagner head Prigozhin had threatened to withdraw unilaterally, citing a lack of supplies from the Russian Defense Ministry. Prigozhin alleges that he received a letter from the Defense Ministry threatening to charge Wagner with treason if it retreated. It remains unclear exactly how much of Bakhmut Russia now controls after reportedly withdrawing from some positions, but prior to this, it was estimated that Russia controlled some 80% of the city. While the Russian Defense Ministry said on Thursday that its forces continued to advance on Bakhmut, Prigozhin took to Telegram to say that the battlefield is “developing according to the worst of the predicted scenarios.” He suggested that hard-won positions are now being abandoned daily “by dozens or hundreds of meters.” Clashes in Sudan have continued and even escalated this week to include significant air strikes. Some 150,000 people are estimated to have fled the country, while some 700,000 have been displaced so far in the fighting between the military and a paramilitary force. Mediation talks are ongoing in Saudi Arabia; however, no concrete progress has been made toward a real ceasefire. Some state buildings have now been occupied by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), while the Sudanese army is using air strikes to attempt to force them out of neighborhoods they have entrenched themselves in. There are still no indications that South Sudan’s oil exports have been negatively affected by the fighting in neighboring Sudan, the landlocked South’s only export route. In Iraqi Kurdistan, the KRG said Thursday that an agreement had been reached with Baghdad to resume oil exports from northern Iraq; however, Turkey had not yet responded to the request to restart the pipeline, which goes to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The KRG’s 400,000-450,000 bpd of oil exports have been shut in since March 25th, with prolonged wrangling between Erbil and Baghdad over who should actually be selling this oil. The agreement will see Erbil give up its rights to market its own oil and defer instead to the Iraqi federal SOMO agency, with revenues going to a separate bank account controlled by the Kurds. Turkey could further delay the resumption of exports if it seeks more leverage over various arbitration elements between Iraq and Turkey. The request to Turkey to restart the pipeline was submitted on Thursday, and at the time, the Iraqi oil minister said Turkey would restart on Saturday. However, on Friday, the KRG energy minister denied that oil would restart this weekend, saying there had been no confirmation of an exact restart date from Turkey. As such, the market is left guessing once again. Because over $680B in goods traverse the Strait of Hormuz every year, the majority of which is crude oil, the Iranian seizures of tankers and cargo earlier in May have some analysts concerned that this vital shipping lane is more vulnerable than usual to geopolitical developments. Some risk managers are advising extra caution. However, our assessment is that, for now, this is simply Iran’s tit-for-tat response to the U.S. seizure of Iranian tankers and cargo, intended to insert some additional fear into the market. If it were to escalate, it would have a significantly damaging impact on global economies, particularly on the U.S., India, and China. We do not believe, at this point, that Tehran is willing to rock the boat with China over tanker seizures by the U.S. The U.S. Department of Energy may begin repurchasing oil to refill the SPR as soon as next month, following a congressionally mandated sale of 26 million barrels that is set to be concluded in June. Discovery & Development Lower natural gas prices have prompted Tellurian to halt drilling in the Haynesville shale and to scale back its 2023 production forecasts by 18% from a forecast made three months ago. French TotalEnergies will start drilling offshore Lebanon in September and Lebanese officials say they’ll know whether there is a discovery by the end of this year, which would be a major development for a completely collapsing economy. The drilling will be in Block 9 in the prolific Mediterranean (where Israel has made major gas discoveries) and is made possible by a deal ending a maritime dispute between Lebanon and Israel last October. The drilling consortium is led by Total and includes partners Eli and QatarEnergy. Iraq’s Al-Qayyarah oilfield in Nineveh has restarted at a rate of 33,000 bpd. The oil is used at a local refinery, and the rest is transferred by rail to ports in the Gulf. Iran has started operations at the Sohrab oilfield along the Iran/Iraq border, with Iran’s NIOC (through PEDEC) overseeing the project and Dana Energy developing the field. The target production is 160 million barrels across 20 years at an initial rate of 30,000 bpd. Sohrab is a heavy oil development. Kosmos Energy will spud an exploration well in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico in the Tiberius prospect in Keathley Canyon Block 964 in the Wilcox play after its Winterfell discovery a couple of years ago. The prospect is close to Occidental’s Lucius platform. Kosmos has previously said that Tiberius is one of the best prospects in its exploration portfolio. BP has started to drill a wildcat well off the coast of Canada–far off the east coast in a rather remote location. The well is being drilled by the Stena IceMax at the Ephesus well in the Orphan basin–almost 250 miles offshore. Seismic shows the basin could hold up to 5 billion boe. It is not BP’s first attempt at drilling here, but the company seems to have a renewed focus on frontier prospects in hopes of compensating for its declining output as it spent the last few years focusing on renewables and emissions-cutting. BP is also looking to develop the tricky Kaskida reservoir in the Gulf of Mexico that was shelved many years ago due to the significant challenges. Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions Ovo and Octopus Energy are looking to snag Shell’s UK retail energy supply business. The two are in the second round of bidding, sources have said after Shell put the unit under review earlier this year. The unit has been unprofitable for Shell, although it is one of the largest UK home energy suppliers in the UK, with nearly 5% of the power and gas market after picking up market share from other providers who had folded in the wake of crippling gas prices. Energy Earnings Beat Saudi Aramco’s Q1 net profit was down year on year by 19.35% to $31.9 billion. The $39.5 billion that the company saw in Q1 2022, however, was inflated by the higher oil prices after Russia invaded Ukraine. Although Aramoc’s Q1 net profits were down from this time last year, it’s still more than 75% of the net profits of the world’s five biggest oil majors. Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) reported quarterly earnings of $0.67 per share, beating analyst estimates. It’s down, however, from the same quarter a year ago, which saw EPS of $1.02. Marathon posted revenues of $1.68 billion for the quarter, compared to year-ago revenues of $1.75 billion.
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Post by Blitz on May 16, 2023 19:54:47 GMT -5
The end of Bakhmut The Ukrainians are organizing to pull out By STEPHEN BRYEN - MAY 17, 2023 asiatimes.com/2023/05/ukrainians-are-organizing-retreat-from-bakhmut/Ukraine is close to retreating from Bakhmut. This could happen anytime now, but it has to happen fast enough before exit routes are closed down. Predictions of a timetable vary, but the Ukrainians should evacuate Bakhmut no later than the weekend, provided they can. There are still a couple of roads open to exit the city, secured in part by Ukrainian army attacks on the flanks of the city. But these roadways and fields will not stay available if the Wagner forces pour in fast. Monday night the Wagner forces stormed and took the two most fortified and defensible parts of the Citadel area of the city – pushing the Ukrainians back into the last part of the Citadel, which is mainly low-rise buildings. These will be hard to hold. There is also fighting around a portion of the city’s northwestern sector where the Ukrainians are holding out at the Children’s Hospital (long since evacuated of patients). The purpose of the Ukrainian force is to hold this area to keep the road open out of the city in that direction and to divert Wagner forces from taking over the entire Citadel too quickly. The Ukrainians could negotiate a safe withdrawal with the Russians, but it is unlikely that President Volodmyr Zelensky will allow that to happen. Furthermore, the so-called leaks about Wagner force boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s communications with Ukrainian intelligence – although he has denied them heatedly – make it almost impossible for the Wagners to make any deals with their Ukrainian enemies. Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin rolls out his Wagner recruiting pitch to convicted criminals. Image: screengrab / YouTube The battle for Bakhmut is Zelensky’s battle, because he demanded that his army stay there and fight even after his commanders told him it was too costly and not worth taking needless losses. The battle has raged for eight or nine months and, to a degree, has caused big losses on both sides. Recently his top commanders have put out statements that the fight was worth it. It is likely Zelensky demanded these statements of support. The big question is: What is next? The Russians could use their forces to move toward Chasiv Yar and push the Ukrainian army back toward the Dnieper river. The Dnieper is absolutely strategic for Ukraine. If the Russians can reach its banks, Ukraine will be cut in half. The Ukrainians have to be careful in mounting their planned but not yet executed great offensive because, if they leave their back door open, the Russians have sufficient forces to handle an offensive and to move on toward Chasiv Yar and beyond. There is a danger the Ukrainian army could be trapped from the north and the south and be unable to gain a breakthrough that could justify trying an offensive aimed at the Kherson region or the Zaporizhzhia region or even Crimea. The US and NATO response is to stuff Ukraine with tons of modern weapons, some of which the Russians are blowing up before they ever get near a battlefield. But manpower remains Ukraine’s Achilles heel. It is becoming more and more difficult for Ukraine to recruit soldiers or dragoon young men into service. This will only multiply when the full impact of the Bakhmut defeat is known to the Ukrainian public. Commander in Chief Valery Zaluzhny (right) with Colonel General Aleksandr Syrskyi. Photo: Ukraine Armed Forces The Ukrainian army leadership also is in doubt. Its top leader, General Valery Zaluzhny, seemingly has disappeared. And so, too, has General Aleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the Ukrainian ground forces. There are no answers but plenty of rumors. One rumor is that Zelensky went on his European tour while the military opposition was eliminated. Another is that these two generals were involved in corruption and were caught. A third rumor is that both were killed in a missile strike. If the planned offensive is delayed because the army’s leaders have been killed, for whatever reason, then Zelensky will face overwhelming problems. A key problem understanding the war in Ukraine is the reliability of sources of information, a problem that relates to the fact that both sides specialize in disinformation and fake news. That said, the information coming from Bakhmut so far is confirmed. The rumors about the fate of Ukraine’s generals are not confirmed.
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Post by Blitz on Jun 1, 2023 12:39:36 GMT -5
In Ukraine, Russia is nearly down to its nukes BY JONATHAN SWEET AND MARK TOTH, OPINION CONTRIBUTORS - 06/01/23 7:00 AM ET thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4027714-in-ukraine-russia-is-nearly-down-to-its-nukes/It was another bad week in Ukraine for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his commanding general, Valery Gerasimov — bad enough to launch criminal retaliation strikes against civilian targets in Kyiv, which largely failed anyway. Even the most loyal of the Russian propagandists are at this point bewildered by the self-defeating military strategy and lack of resolve by the Kremlin to go all-in. Vladimir Solovyov called upon Russian citizens to “recognize there is a war going on,” “move to a war footing” and recognize “we’re fighting against NATO.” He then called for more airstrikes on Ukrainian cities. Sixteen months into the war, Putin and his generals still do not have an answer to Ukraine. Russian ground forces are being routed and humiliated routinely. Entire formations with their officers have surrendered. UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles strike with impunity at locations once considered not at risk. And Russia’s border is not secure, either. Elements of the pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps, alongside the Freedom of Russia Legion, demonstrated this on May 22 when they conducted a raid in the Belgorod Oblast. The skies over Moscow remain porous as well. The drone strike on the flagpole atop the Kremlin prior to the May 9 Victory Day Parade was repeated on May 30, inviting yet again the wrath of Wagner CEO Yevgeny Prigozhin and ultra-nationalist Igor Strelkov on Putin’s inability to protect Russian citizens living in the capital city. No amount of spin from the Kremlin can change those inconvenient truths, not that some haven’t tried. A Baghdad Bob-like moment occurred on May 30 when Shoigu reported incredible battlefield successes. “Russian troops continue to inflict effective fire on the enemy,” he wrote. He added that “196 HIMARS [rockets] were intercepted and destroyed, along with 16 HARM missiles and 29 Storm Shadow cruise missiles.” Shoigu went on to claim that Russia had struck a U.S. Patriot missile system in Kyiv and “liquidated” 70 Ukrainian raiders during a “counterterrorism operation in Belgorod.” He concluded by claiming that eight Ukrainian drones launched in a “terrorist action targeting civilians” in Moscow were destroyed. The assembled military officers in the audience sat stoically, listening to what they surely recognized as farcical Kremlin propaganda. Retired Russian naval officer Konstantin Sivkov, tried deluding his audience that the drone attacks on Moscow had been, in actuality, “very positive, because they’ll help to mobilize Russian society against the enemy.” Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin likewise downplayed the effectiveness of the attack saying the “UAV attack caused minor damage to several buildings. All the city’s emergency services are on the scene. They are investigating the circumstances of what happened. No one has been seriously injured so far.” Russian spin notwithstanding, the drone strikes provided yet another psychological jab that is picking at the scab of the Russian psyche. What was described as a “special military operation” is in its 16th month now, and as Igor Girkin apprised, something as militarily limited as the special military operation should not have involved Ukrainian strikes “against Engels or Moscow, where since Soviet times [they had] the best air defense and missile defense system in Russia.” The Kremlin, in the absence of a sustained conventional offensive capability, was increasingly resorting to propagandists selling Putin’s retaliation strikes against Ukrainian civilians as though they were decisive battlefield successes. Yet as Russian missile and drone strikes lose effectiveness against a U.S. and NATO supplied integrated air defense network, Putin is shifting back to implied threats of nuclear escalation and Chernobyl-like environmental disasters. This past week, Putin signed two documents designed to send one nuclear message to the U.S. and NATO. The first provided for the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, although control is solely retained by the Kremlin. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko claimed that the “tactical nuclear weapons were already on the move.” Then, on Monday, Putin signed legislation into law withdrawing Russia from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. Both decrees are creating an ominous new dimension in regard to the four Ukrainian regions Moscow illegally annexed — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. In the past, Putin has vowed to defend Russia territories, “including the annexed regions, with any means at his military’s disposal, including nuclear weapons.” Short of using nukes and lacking adequate conventional options, Moscow is for now electing to create environmental disasters instead. On May 26, Russian forces blew up the Karlivka Dam in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine with a missile strike, sending water downstream and leading to the evacuation of civilians from their homes along the Vovcha River. The resulting floods did disrupt “Ukrainian military operations near the front lines,” while disrupting Kyiv’s ability to resupply and sustain deployment of those units. New reports from the Ukraine Defense Ministry on May 26 also suggest Russia is planning a major accident at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in a ‘false flag’ operation to “thwart Ukraine’s imminently expected counteroffensive.” In faking a Ukrainian attack on the plant and causing “the leakage of the radioactive substances,” the Kremlin is apparently anticipating it can “trigger an international investigation which would require a ceasefire, allowing Russia to use the break in fighting to better prepare for Ukraine’s counteroffensive.” Ukraine, however, remains undeterred and unwilling to give in to Russian nuclear blackmail. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky defiantly announced on May 29 that a decision had been made concerning the timing of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. The head games continue — real and imagined, including action, reaction, counteraction — only this time, it is Ukraine dictating the conditions. Billions in hydrogen tax credits could be given to polluters ESG tug-of-war leaves taxpayers shortchanged Deep strikes, raids, reconnaissance in force, supporting efforts, main effort — Gerasimov must now prepare for all contingencies along a 900-mile front. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army gets stronger and the Russian soldier in his foxhole is left to wonder. Putin, essentially, is down to his nukes in Ukraine. And even he likely knows that they are not a viable or winning option. The question is no longer whether Russia conventionally loses in Ukraine, but when.
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