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Post by Blitz on Sept 5, 2023 5:51:47 GMT -5
PREMIER LI TO REPRESENT CHINA AT SUMMIT IN INDIA DURING A PERIOD OF SOURED BILATERAL RELATIONS - TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 5, 2023 - 10 HOURS AGO NO COMMENTS 947 VIEWS macaudailytimes.com.mo/premier-li-to-represent-china-at-summit-in-india-during-a-period-of-soured-bilateral-relations.htmlChinese President Xi Jinping is apparently skipping this week’s Group of 20 summit in India as bilateral relations remain icy. Instead, Premier Li Qiang will represent China at the Sept. 9-10 gathering, the Foreign Ministry said yesterday in a one sentence notice on its website. Relations between China and India have grown frosty over their disputed border, and three years ago the tensions resulted in a clash in the Ladakh region that killed 20 Indian and four soldiers. It turned into a long-running standoff in the rugged mountainous area, where each side has stationed tens of thousands of military personnel backed by artillery, tanks and fighter jets. Frictions have also risen over trade and India’s growing strategic ties with China’s main rival the United States. Both India and China have expelled the other’s journalists. India recently overtook China as the world’s most populous nation and the two are rivals in technology, space exploration and global trade. Asked why Xi would not be attending the summit, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning declined to answer. “The G20 is a major forum for international economic cooperation. China has always attached great importance to and actively participated in relevant activities,” Mao told reporters at a daily briefing. “Premier Li Qiang will elaborate on China’s views and propositions on G20 cooperation, promote the G20 to strengthen solidarity and cooperation and work together to address global economic and development challenges,” she said. She said China is ready to work with all parties “to jointly promote the success of the G20” summit and “make positive contributions to promoting the stable recovery of the world economy and promoting sustainable development.” Chinese and Indian military commanders met just last month and pledged to “maintain the peace and tranquility” along their disputed border, in an apparent effort by the sides to stabilize the situation. The Line of Actual Control separates Chinese- and Indian-held territories from Ladakh in the west to India’s eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims in its entirety. India and China fought a war over their border in 1962. As its name suggests, the line divides the areas of physical control rather than territorial claims. According to India, the de facto border is 3,488 kilometers long, but China promotes a considerably shorter figure. In all, China claims some 90,000 square kilometers of territory in India’s northeast, including Arunachal Pradesh with its mainly Buddhist population. India says China occupies 38,000 square kilometers of its territory in the Aksai Chin Plateau, which India considers part of Ladakh, where the current faceoff is happening. China, in the meantime, began cementing relations with India’s archrival Pakistan and backing it on the issue of disputed Kashmir. Firefights broke out again in 1967 and 1975, leading to more deaths on both sides. They’ve since adopted protocols, including an agreement not to use firearms, but those protocols have fractured. Other than the potential effects on China-India relations, Xi’s absence at the summit will also eliminate the possibility of an interaction with U.S. President Joe Biden. China-U.S. relations remain at a historic low despite recent visits by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other officials to Beijing. Xi has accumulated more power at home than any Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, and has adopted an increasingly aggressive approach to what he views as China’s territorial interests in the South China Sea and toward self-governing Taiwan, which China threatens to annex by force if necessary. At the same time, China has struggled to recover economically from the hard-line policies it took to control COVID-19. Foreign businesses also have complained of an increasingly difficult environment in which to invest in and trade with the country. Xi will not be the only foreign head of state absent from the summit. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who faces war crimes charges over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will also be skipping the summit, although he does plan to visit close partner China next month. MDT/AP
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Post by Blitz on Sept 8, 2023 6:49:01 GMT -5
CHINA’S EXPORTS AND IMPORTS FALL IN AUGUST AS WEAK GLOBAL DEMAND KEEPS ITS ECONOMY UNDER PRESSURE - FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2023 - 11 HOURS AGO NO COMMENTS 572 VIEWS macaudailytimes.com.mo/chinas-exports-and-imports-fall-in-august-as-weak-global-demand-keeps-its-economy-under-pressure.htmlChina’s exports and imports both fell in August from a year earlier, reflecting tepid global demand that is adding to pressures on its slowing economy. Customs data released yesterday showed exports for August slumped 8.8% to $284.87 billion in the fourth straight month of decline. Imports slid 7.3% to $216.51 billion. The total trade surplus fell to $68.36 billion from $80.6 billion in July. Chinese leaders have in rolled out various policy measures to shore up the economy after the country’s rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic fizzled earlier than expected. The central bank has eased borrowing rules and and cut mortgage rates for first-time home buyers while providing some tax relief measures for small businesses. So far, the authorities have avoided large-scale stimulus spending or broader tax cuts. Demand for Chinese exports weakened after the Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe and Asia began raising interest rates last year to cool inflation that was at multi-decade highs. Economists say much of the impact of those rate increases has yet to filter through major Western economies, where consumer spending has remained relatively strong. “Looking ahead, we expect exports to decline over the coming months before bottoming out toward the end of the year,” Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in a report. “Most measures of export orders point to a more substantial pullback in foreign demand than has so far been reflected in the customs data,” he said. China’s trade has been gradually declining for the past two years, though August’s drops in export and imports were less severe than in July, when exports fell 14.5% from a year earlier while imports were 12.4% lower. Politically sensitive exports to the U.S. fell 17.4% from a year earlier to $45 billion, the customs data showed, while imports of U.S. goods slid 4.9% to nearly $12 billion. China’s imports from Russia, mostly oil and gas, increased 13.3% from a year earlier to $11.52 billion. Chinese purchases of Russian energy have swelled, helping to offset revenue lost to Western sanctions imposed to punish the Kremlin for its invasion of Ukraine. Exports to the European Union tumbled 10.5% from the same time last year to $41.3 billion, while imports of European goods declined 2.5% to $24.56 billion. ZEN SOO, HONG KONG, MDT/AP
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Post by Blitz on Sept 8, 2023 8:01:15 GMT -5
Excerpt:
China risks losing the battle of market perceptions By WILLIAM PESEK AUGUST 31, 2023 asiatimes.com/2023/08/china-risks-losing-the-battle-of-market-perceptions/
China’s top policymakers need to signal more clearly they’re on top of things before terminal decline narratives gain wider currency
Foreign investors are fleeing China's stock markets based on what may prove to be faulty assumptions. Image: Twitter Screengrab / Yahoo Finance
President Xi Jinping is prodding China’s largest banks to slash rates on mortgages and deposits. Yet here’s what’s most interesting about Beijing harnessing roughly US$5.3 trillion of mortgages, equivalent to the combined gross domestic product (GDP) of the UK and Italy: how little excitement the news generated in global markets. One reason for the dearth of enthusiasm is that investors reckon China has way more yet to do to stabilize economic growth and contain its spiraling property crisis. The bigger question, though, is the extent to which Xi’s team is internalizing this message.
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Post by Blitz on Sept 9, 2023 8:52:11 GMT -5
Yay, Xi... Yay, more Maoism. Can anyone point to a successful Maoist economy or Communist country? And now this... From Boom To Gloom: China's Economic Momentum Dips By ZeroHedge - Sep 05, 2023, 11:00 AM CDT oilprice.com/Finance/the-Economy/From-Boom-To-Gloom-Chinas-Economic-Momentum-Dips.html- Forecasts for China's economic growth in 2023 and 2024 have been cut, with the nation potentially missing Beijing's growth target again. - China's GDP growth, relative to the US, began to decline in 2022 and is expected to continue that trend. - To achieve President Xi's goal for China by 2035, the country needs significant growth, but current trajectories and policy decisions may hinder this vision. Forecasts for China’s 2023 and 2024 economic growth have been slashed on Wall Street over the past few weeks. The world’s second-largest economy now risks missing Beijing’s own growth target for a second straight year and could expand at a sub-5% pace for three years in a row — something unheard of since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976. Stalling growth will surely have longer-term geopolitical implications. Odds are stacked against President Xi, who pledged last year to make China a “medium-developed country” by 2035. That’s also the time when China could dethrone the US to become the world’s No. 1 economy, if the stars are aligned. Such a prospect, however, looks increasingly out of reach given the current trajectories. China’s strong growth and subsequent currency appreciation meant the country’s output, measured in dollars, has grown much faster than the US for over two decades. The nation’s GDP was around $1.2 trillion at the turn of the century, less than one-eighth of the US. Its share of US GDP climbed toward 70% in 2020 and topped 72% in 2021. That was comparable with Japan, whose dollar-denominated output reached almost 73% of US levels in 1995, before embarking on a downtrend ever since. Last year was a watershed moment as China’s relative economic might versus the US declined after the second quarter, when a two-month lockdown of Shanghai wreaked havoc on sentiment and dented growth momentum. The nation’s GDP rose $1.3 trillion in 2022, compared with a $2.1 trillion gain in the US, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In the first half of 2023, Chinese GDP in dollar terms shrank — as the yuan lost almost 5% versus the greenback — while the US economy powered on, “opening a bigger gap in the global economic race” as my colleague Gerard DiPippo wrote. Chinese output as a share of the US now stands near 68%, on course for a second straight year of decline. At the October party congress, President Xi set the goal for China to become a “medium-developed country” by 2035, which implies doubling the size of its economy and per-capita GDP from 2020 levels, and requires an average annual growth rate of around 4.7%. The latest Bloomberg survey of economists saw Chinese output expanding 5.1% this year, before moderating to 4.5% in 2024 and 2025. Given last year’s 3% expansion, the four-year average between 2022 and 2025 will amount to less than 4.3%. That number is sure to fall if policymakers refrain from major stimulus and growth momentum keeps deteriorating. Two years ago, my colleagues Eric Zhu and Tom Orlik at Bloomberg Economics analyzed several scenarios and concluded that China will need 5%-plus growth as well as least a steady pace of reforms, and it also will need to avoid a full decoupling in order to economically dethrone the US in the next decade. Events since then have made their base case look optimistic, and the downside scenario more akin to reality. Beijing may choose to muddle through its present growth impasse and refrain from any “big bang” measures at the expense of never ascending to the pinnacle of the global economic competition. By George Lei, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist via Zerohedge.com
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Post by Blitz on Sept 11, 2023 9:11:29 GMT -5
Australia-Philippines pact takes hard new aim at China Newly-signed strategic partnership will pave the way for enhanced military ties and more joint patrols in contested South China Sea By RICHARD JAVAD HEYDARIAN - SEPTEMBER 11, 2023 asiatimes.com/2023/09/australia-philippines-pact-takes-hard-new-aim-at-china/Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr together with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the signing of a Joint Declaration on Strategic Partnership between Philippines and Australia at Malacañang Palace, September 8, 2023. Photo: PPA Pool / Yummie Dingding When Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a new strategic partnership with the Philippines on Friday (September 8) in Manila, the ceremony marked the culmination of a year-long charm offensive to win over Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s Western-friendly administration. Albanese described the new partnership as “historic” and a “watershed moment” that will “contribute to an open, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.” Marcos Jr said the new bilateral deal was “very gratifying” and “terribly important” amid growing geopolitical uncertainty in the region. The pact underscores the growing convergence between the two US allies on the need to enhance maritime security cooperation in the face of China’s expanding footprint and rising assertiveness in adjacent waters including the South China Sea. Bilateral defense relations have become increasingly robust in recent years through the two sides’ Status of Visiting Forces Agreement (SOVFA), which was first signed in 2007 likewise with an eye on China and facilitates joint exercises and training and allows for temporary use of bases and facilities. Last month, Australia conducted joint patrols as well as major bilateral military drills with the Philippines shortly after Chinese vessels used water cannons against Philippine resupply vessels near the contested Second Thomas Shoal. At the strategic partnership’s signing ceremony, Albanese promised to upgrade bilateral relations “to an even higher level” with a focus on enhancing people-to-people exchanges as well as trade and investment ties. Australia’s trade with Manila is relatively small compared to other Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore. Despite their deep historical ties, with Australian troops playing a crucial role in the liberation of the Philippines from Imperial Japan during World War II, bilateral relations were relatively limited throughout the Cold War period. By and large, the Philippines served as America’s forward deployment base for military operations across East Asia, including in the Korean Peninsula and during the Vietnam War. Meanwhile, the so-called “White Australia Policy” largely hampered meaningful interaction with the Philippines, which experienced massive emigration to the US but not Australia in the second half of the 20th century. Basic hurdles for a Chinese world order Philippine-Australia relations, however, got a boost following the departure of US bases from Subic and Clark in the early 1990s. In particular, growing threats from a rising China that culminated in its coercive seizure of the Mischief Reef in the South China Sea, driving Manila to seek new defense partnerships. China has militarized Mischief Reef since seizing it from the Philippines. Photo: Asia Times files / EyePress / Digital Globe The upshot was the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on Cooperative Defense Activities and the Joint Defense Cooperation Committee (JDCC) with Canberra, both of which provided frameworks for closer defense cooperation. The two sides then negotiated SOFVA to institutionalize military cooperation. After its initial hesitation, the Philippine Senate ratified the defense pact following Beijing’s occupation of the Scarborough Shoal in mid-2012 after a months-long naval standoff Manila ultimately lost. Though China was a major driver for SOVFA, the defense pact proved crucial for the delivery of emergency assistance during recent Philippine natural disasters, including the Haiyan superstorm disaster in 2013. Soon thereafter Australia also began to join large-scale Philippine-US military drills, most notably the annual Balikatan exercises. It didn’t take long before Australia began providing defense aid, including notably the transfer of three former Royal Australian Navy (RAN) Balikpapan-class heavy landing craft (LCH) to the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) in the mid-2010s. Eager to enhance Australia’s strategic ties with Southeast Asia, then-Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull visited Manila on multiple occasions and hosted the inaugural Australia-ASEAN Summit. In 2015, he signed the Joint Declaration on Australia-Philippine Comprehensive Partnership (DCP), which laid down the foundation for an even more comprehensive partnership. Bilateral ties entered a new phase when Australia offered special forces training and deployed surveillance aircraft to assist the AFP during 2017 the Marawi crisis in the southern Philippines, which saw militant groups aligned with Islamic State lay siege to the city. The episode left a deep impression on the Philippine political elite, most notably President Rodrigo Duterte, who publicly thanked Australia for “showing solidarity” during the crisis on his home island of Mindanao. Although he boycotted Western capitals throughout his six-year term in office, Duterte personally boarded the HMAS Adelaide during the Royal Australian Navy’s goodwill visit to Manila in 2017. Duterte’s successor, however, has wasted no time in winning back traditional allies amid escalating tensions with Beijing over their South China Sea disputes. In that direction, Marcos Jr decided earlier this year to expand the country’s Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the US. The expanded agreement will allow US forces access to five new Philippine bases, including a facility that is geographically close to Taiwan. Shortly after, top Australian officials were in Manila to enhance their defense partnership with Manila as part of a broader network of likeminded actors in the region. The Philippines also became the only Southeast Asian nation to openly back the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) nuclear-powered submarine deal, which drew criticism from both Beijing-friendly and non-aligned nations in the region such as Malaysia and Indonesia. Last month, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles visited Manila for the second time to observe the Philippine-Australia Amphibious and Land Operations of the Indo-Pacific Endeavor 2023 (ALON) exercises near the South China Sea. This coincided with Australia, Philippine and Japan trilateral patrols in the sea, with Canberra dangling more joint patrols in the near future. Against this backdrop, the newly signed strategic partnership aims to seal the deal of expanded relations between the two fellow US allies. “Australia is working with our partners including the Philippines to shape a region where sovereignty is upheld,” Albanese said during a press conference, emphasizing Canberra’s commitment to managing South China Sea disputes in accordance with international law. “Australia supports the 2016 South China Sea arbitral award. That is final and binding. And it is important that it be upheld going forward,” he added, referring to the Philippine-initiated legal proceedings, which culminated in an arbitral ruling at The Hague against China’s expansive claims over the South China Sea. Philippine and Australian troops are poised to train more together under their new strategic partnership. Image: Twitter During his visit, Albanese also spoke of developing an even more comprehensive relationship “based on close cooperation and enriched by the 400,000 Australians with Filipino heritage.” In particular, Albanese promised to enhance people-to-people relations by doubling Australia Awards Scholarships to the Philippines, re-establishing the Philippines Institute at the Australian National University, establishing a new reciprocal Work and Holiday visa for Australians and Filipinos and providing up to $64.5 million in additional aid for the peace process in Mindanao. To date, bilateral relations remain lopsided. Philippine-Australia bilateral trade ($6.2 billion in 2021) is relatively small compared to Canberra’s trade with similarly sized nations in Southeast Asia such as Vietnam ($18 billion) and Thailand ($25 billion). Albanese hopes to boost trade and investment ties with Southeast Asian nations under the newly-launched Southeast Asia Economic Strategy to 2040, though it’s not clear how much the policy will emphasize the Philippines. Australia’s charm offensive toward the Philippines has also come under criticism for potentially overlooking Manila’s troubling human rights and corruption record during the Duterte administration. “The Australian government should recognize that it would be a mistake to deepen defense and security ties with the Philippines while ignoring human rights concerns,” said Australia director for Human Rights Watch (HRW) Daniela Gavshon ahead of the Albanese-Marcos meeting. “A security partner that routinely violates basic human rights will ultimately provide little safety and security for anyone,” Gavshon said.
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Post by Blitz on Sept 14, 2023 17:47:15 GMT -5
Xi did this and if China continues down this path Xi is engineering his own demise. China’s malaise started with his tech crackdown. Tech crackdowns rid China of entrepreneurial capitalism 12 September 2023 - Author: Martin Miszerak, Renmin University www.eastasiaforum.org/2023/09/12/tech-crackdowns-rid-china-of-entrepreneurial-capitalism/Since early 2023, Chinese authorities have started extending an olive branch to China’s top platform tech companies after over two years of ‘regulatory crackdown’. The crackdown started in November 2020 with the cancellation of the initial public offering (IPO) of e-commerce giant Ant Group — an affiliate of Alibaba. Visitors visit the stand of Tencent at the 2023 World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, China, 6 July 2023 (Photo: Reuters/Costfoto/NurPhoto). Besides Ant Group, the ‘rectification’ affected most of China’s large platform companies. Yet by June 2023, a cold was blowing over China’s economy. The post-COVID-19 recovery was faltering. Youth unemployment rose above 21 per cent. The authorities also likely concluded that they had accomplished most of the objectives of the rectification. At the China Development Forum in March 2023, Premier Li Qiang bent over backwards to assure prominent Western CEOs that China was welcoming the private sector, both foreign and domestic. There is no consensus among academic and journalistic commentators about the crackdown’s ‘true’ objectives. One view holds that it was a personality clash between the ‘exuberance’ of Jack Ma — Alibaba’s founder and China’s most prominent private entrepreneur — and the fundamentally Maoist orientation of President Xi Jinping. But a focus on Jack Ma ignores the fact that essentially all platform companies underwent some form of rectification. Another view holds that it was simply a scheme to clip the wings of China’s top private companies, given Xi Jinping’s embrace of the state-owned sector. Yet data showing an increasing penetration of China’s economy by large private companies belied Xi Jinping’s alleged hostility to the private sector. Others maintain that a ‘great’ rectification was needed to align the mission of platform tech companies with Xi Jinping’s social policy objectives such as ‘common prosperity’ and the drive against ‘disorderly expansion of capital’. But the true objective of the crackdown had little to do with regulation, as authorities’ actions went beyond what might be considered an imposition of a stricter regulation. Regulatory rectification was only a vehicle to accomplish other objectives. The crackdown was characterised by a spate of shareholder wealth destruction. Ant Group was headed for its IPO in November 2020 at an implied valuation of US$313 billion. Yet in July 2023, Ant Group launched a share buyback at a valuation that was 70 per cent lower. The global ride-sharing leader, Didi Chuxing, conducted its New York IPO in June 2021 at a valuation of US$70 billion. After a forced delisting from the New York Stock Exchange, it is currently trading over the counter with a market capitalisation of about US$16.7 billion. The other side of the coin was the wealth extraction from platform companies to various state-owned entities. One instrument of extraction was in the form of unprecedented fines. Alibaba was fined US$2.8 billion in April 2021 for alleged abuse of market dominance. Another method of extraction was through ‘voluntary’ contributions to causes championed by Xi Jinping. Tencent — the global game leader and investor in many start-ups — ‘earmarked’ US$7.7 billion in 2021 to a fund dedicated to ‘common prosperity’. Another extraction mechanism was carried out through putting a brake on platform companies’ ability to grow. Didi was barred from registering new users for 18 months. This conveniently opened a market window for several of Didi’s state-backed competitors such as Huawei Technologies of T3 Chuxing. A major effect of the crackdown has been a fundamental change in corporate governance. Platform tech companies have been forced into appointing state-nominated directors and issuing ‘golden shares’ in subsidiary companies to state-owned enterprises under joint venture partnerships. Such golden shares amount typically to only about 1 per cent of a subsidiary’s equity. But they bestow disproportionate corporate governance rights upon the minority shareholders. The state has acquired veto power over strategic decisions in those companies. Probably the most momentous corporate governance upheaval was the defenestration of Jack Ma — the symbol of China’s entrepreneurial success. Jack Ma was effectively banished upon the cancellation of Ant Group’s IPO. The company was subjected to a share reshuffling which shrank Jack Ma’s voting rights from over 50 per cent to 6.2 per cent. Platform companies have survived the regulatory crackdown. But they do so at the price of an irreversible change in their business models. Before November 2020, those companies were very different from most of China’s large private companies. Their business model at that time could be described as ‘entrepreneurial’ — completely private, backed by world-class venture capital and guided by entrepreneurial leaders dedicated to shareholder value maximization. This entrepreneurial business model has now been extinguished. Instead, these firms must align with other large private Chinese companies which tend to be intertwined with the state. This ensures significant state influence over the private sector. The business model upheaval has also fueled a massive blow to sentiment in China’s private sector. For a Chinese private company owner, it is difficult to feel upbeat if the authorities can deprive a top private entrepreneur — such as Jack Ma — of control rights over the company he or she has founded. Sentiment might improve in the future. But for the time being, the regulatory crackdown will remain a major contributor to China’s stumbling macroeconomic performance. Martin Miszerak is Visiting Lecturer at Renmin Business School, Renmin University, Beijing.
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Post by Blitz on Sept 15, 2023 12:40:12 GMT -5
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Post by Blitz on Oct 1, 2023 7:03:27 GMT -5
EMPIRE OF DUST How Xi Jinping’s ‘Red Empire’ dream crumbled into wasteland of abandoned railways, half-built bridges & roads to nowhere Imogen Braddick - 1st October 2023 www.thesun.co.uk/news/23930636/CHINA’S bid to build a new “Red Empire” has left the world with a sea of roads to nowhere and half-built bridges. Xi Jinping unveiled the world’s most ambitious infrastructure project 10 years ago this month – wooing Asia, Africa and the Middle East with bold promises. An aerial views shows a part of the new highway connecting the city of Bar on Montenegros Adriatic coast to landlocked neighbour Serbia, (Bar-Boljare highway) on May 11, 2021, near Podgorica, which is being constructed by China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC), the large state-owned Chinese company. - Two sleek new roads vanish into mountain tunnels high above a sleepy Montenegrin village, the unlikely endpoint of a billion-dollar project that is threatening to derail the tiny country's economy. The government has already burnt through $944 million in Chinese loans to complete the first stretch of road, just 41 kilometres (25 miles), making it among the world's most expensive pieces of tarmac. Chinese workers have spent six years carving tunnels through solid rock and raising concrete pillars above gorges and canyons, but the road in effect goes nowhere. Almost 130 kilometres still needs to be built at a likely cost of at least one billion euros ($1.2 billion). (Photo by SAVO PRELEVIC / AFP) (Photo by SAVO PRELEVIC/AFP via Getty Images) The Montenegro highway which has left the country crippled with debt The Standard Gauge Railway in Kenya was halted in 2019 after China withheld funding The railway in Kenya was supposed to weave 290 miles Dubbed the “project of the century”, the Belt and Road Initiative was billed as a mega plan to create trade routes through huge swathes of Eurasia, with China at the centre. With promises of loans and vast infrastructure projects like roads, railways and bridges, more than 150 countries have signed up. It all forms part of Xi’s plan for China to become the “most powerful global power” by extending a friendly hand to a web of potential new allies, experts said. But a decade on, his vision appears to be crumbling in many parts of the world – halted by bankruptcy, corruption and mountains of debt. And many nations ended up getting more than the bargained for. Wooed by the glitzy sales pitch, many have been left unable to keep up with the return payments when China comes knocking like a loan shark. Building projects end up being ditched or unfinished until the debt is settled – with the Communist Party more than happy to take their pound of flesh. As debt mounts, it’s feared more of these projects will go unfinished – and greedy Chinese lenders will seize control of land and key assets in lieu of repayment. Countries such as Sri Lanka, Kenya, Montenegro, Laos and Kazakhstan have found themselves crippled by debt and reliant on Beijing. Ashok Swain, professor of peace and security at Uppsala University, believes Xi’s project even acted as a “catalyst” for conflict in some nations. “While the Belt and Road Initiative has contributed to infrastructure advancement, it has also been a catalyst for conflicts between countries and exacerbated debt issues in some instances,” he told The Sun. Some unfinished projects have come to a screeching halt after local officials were sentenced for corruption. In Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, enormous concrete columns are a daily reminder of a China-funded railway that was stopped after a corruption scandal. In Kenya, a railway connecting the coastal city of Mombasa to Nairobi was left half-finished – ending in a field a few hundred miles short of its destination. According to research lab AidData, one-third of projects have been plagued by furious protests, corruption scandals, labour violations, or environment problems. After a decade of construction, experts told The Sun that Xi’s flagship project has mostly crumbled – leaving many poorer countries trapped by China’s control. Expanding its tendrils across the world, analysts have long believed the Belt and Road Initiative is being used to boost China’s power. Some suggest that it is a plan to further China’s ambitions using “predatory loans” and “debt traps” to bring nations’ under their sphere of influence. Shaun Breslin, professor of politics and international studies at Warwick University, warned that some countries have become “too reliant” on China – ending up in a debt spiral with unfinished projects. “There have been increasing questions about the wisdom of becoming too reliant on Chinese finance and ending up in forms of debt dependence on China in various countries along the Belt and Road, and this might become more important,” he previously told The Sun. Under Xi – China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong – China has admitted it has grand plans to establish itself on the world stage as a “pioneering global influence” by 2050. The Chinese leader is shoring up allies around the world – whether through open diplomacy or more sinister economic policies, such as “debt traps”. China’s tendrils now extend far beyond the Indo-Pacific – reaching deep into the Middle East, Africa and beyond. They boast of an “all-weather” partnership with Pakistan, a mutual defence treaty with North Korea, and an “unbreakable” friendship with Belarus. “It has substantially broadened China’s sphere of influence in Africa, Asia, and even South America,” Professor Swain told The Sun. “In terms of power politics, Xi has successfully realised his objectives through the Belt and Road Initiative – positioning China at the forefront of global power politics. “In most parts of Sub-Saharan, China has already displaced the US and has become the primary influencer,” Ashok Swain, professor of peace and security at Uppsala University, told The Sun. “China is also fast becoming a major power player in the Middle East. “Even in Israel, China’s influence has expanded rapidly. In the coming years, the potential flashpoints will be Iran and Ethiopia. “China is already openly engaged in recruiting these two countries as allies while the US is doing everything to retain its influences.” British MI6 chief Richard Moore also warned China’s use of money is means to “get people on the hook”. Speaking to BBC Radio Four, he said the country has also enlisted the use of “data traps” as it attempts to build it’s global intelligence. “If you allow another country to gain access to really critical data about your society, over time that will erode your sovereignty, you no longer have control over that data,” he explained. “That’s something which, I think, in the UK we are very alive to and we’ve taken measures to defend against.” Professor Kerry Brown, from the Lau China Institute at King’s College London, said China is “tired of the West’s victories”. He told The Sun: “China is trying to show that it’s not just a choice between the West’s way of resolving issues or nothing else, but there might, there just might, be another way. “It is tired of the West’s victories, which are often short sighted, short term and self interested.” Prof Brown said “some of the lessons have been good, some bad” in Xi’s decade-long project. “In some places, the money associated with it has bled away due to corruption, in others because of inefficiency, and elsewhere because of change of governments and broader political factors,” he said. “The best we can say is that in the last decade at least China and the world have learned a lot about working with each other – some of the lessons have been good, some bad. “Where the environment is less stable – like in parts of Africa or the Middle East – then Chinese investment continues to be prone to accusations of low local benefit coming due to import of Chinese labour, poor environmental standards, and corruption. “But the bottom line is that for many countries, the BRI offers an alternative to western support. “The critics have to sometimes accept, when it comes to China, that if it’s a choice between am imperfect project, and no project at all, more often than not the former is the best option.” The bridge section of the unfinished highway in Montenegro
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Post by Blitz on Oct 2, 2023 7:09:03 GMT -5
DEFENSE MINISTER HAS BEEN MIA FOR A MONTH, MINISTRY DECLINES TO COMMENT - FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2023 - 3 DAYS AGO NO COMMENTS 2,713 VIEWS macaudailytimes.com.mo/defense-minister-has-been-mia-for-a-month-ministry-declines-to-comment.htmlA Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson said yesterday that he was “not aware of the situation” in the ministry’s first public comments on the disappearance of the defense minister from public view about one month ago. Senior Col. Wu Qian, the director of the ministry’s information office, gave only a one-sentence response when asked at a monthly news conference whether Li Shangfu is under investigation for corruption and if he is still the defense minister. “I’m not aware of the situation you mentioned,” Wu said in response to a question from a foreign news outlet. Li, who became defense minister when a new Cabinet was named in March, hasn’t been seen since giving a speech on Aug. 29. He is the second senior official to disappear this year, following former Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who was removed from office in July. The Chinese government has given no reason for his removal, or why both he and Li suddenly stopped making public appearances. There is no indication, at least so far, that their disappearances signal a change in China’s foreign or defense policies. The disappearance of officials and other people without explanation “is not uncommon in China and often followed months later by the announcement of criminal charges against the person,” observers say. “The disappearance of two sitting ministers in rapid succession, though, is unusual.” Wu, the defense ministry spokesperson, played down concerns expressed by U.S. officials that the two countries don’t have clear military-to-military communications channels. He said that the problem is not a lack of communication but a need for the U.S. to change its ways to get relations between the two militaries back on track. “The US always wants to tie somebody’s hands and feet, so they can do whatever they want,” he said. Wu, who opened the news conference with an announcement about a global security conference to be held in Beijing next month, ducked a question about Li from another foreign media reporter, who asked whether the defense minister would attend the conference. “We will release information about the Beijing Xiangshan Forum in due course,” he said. MDT/AP
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Post by Blitz on Oct 2, 2023 10:04:31 GMT -5
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Post by Blitz on Oct 2, 2023 10:28:08 GMT -5
India eyes massive naval build-up to challenge China India aiming for 175 warships by 2035 with sub cooperation from France and a vision of driving China out of the Indian Ocean By GABRIEL HONRADA - OCTOBER 2, 2023 asiatimes.com/2023/10/india-eyes-massive-naval-build-up-to-challenge-china/India's INS Vikrant aircraft carrier. Image: Twitter India plans to embark on a massive naval buildup in response to China’s growing naval might and presence in the Indian Ocean, but the broad strategy will face various significant challenges that could cap its ambitions. Last month, multiple media outlets reported that the Indian Navy plans to order another Indigenous Aircraft Carrier (IAC) similar to the INS Vikrant. The plan was announced by Chief of Naval Staff Admiral R Hari Kumar, according to the reports. Moreover, the Indian Navy is also lobbying for additional assets such as three nuclear-powered submarines and six diesel-electric conventional submarines, all potentially to be constructed under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Atmanirbhar Bharat” self-reliance vision. Current projections suggest that the Indian Navy’s fleet could reach around 155-160 warships by 2023, with an ambitious target of having at least 175 warships by 2035. Various other assets, including aircraft, helicopters and drones, will also be augmented to ensure strategic reach and flexibility. While China has rapidly expanded its naval capabilities—projected to reach 555 warships in the next five to six years—the Indian Navy is taking proactive steps not to fall behind. Despite this, it has yet to receive preliminary government approval for constructing a third aircraft carrier, a crucial step given that such a project would take more than ten years to complete. The Indian Navy is now advocating for a 45,000-ton “repeat order” of the INS Vikrant to maintain continuity in its shipbuilding capabilities. India’s first indigenous carrier, the INS Vikrant has had a protracted development process spanning over a decade, underscoring the many challenges India faces in indigenously producing sophisticated warships. In September 2022, Asia Times reported that India commissioned the INS Vikrant after 13 years of development and US$2.5 billion in spending. Technical difficulties, funding and procurement issues and corruption reportedly caused delays.
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Post by Blitz on Oct 3, 2023 7:40:41 GMT -5
China’s economic ills infecting the rest of Asia China’s property crisis and economic slowdown are starting to impact East and Southeast Asia as contagion fears take hold By WILLIAM PESEK - OCTOBER 3, 2023 asiatimes.com/2023/10/chinas-economic-ills-infecting-the-rest-of-asia/China hasn't intervened in the property market as aggressively as many anticipated. Image: Twitter The World Bank’s latest take on China’s slowdown is plenty sobering for the broader Asian region. But odds are, not quite sober enough. Bad news on the property sector of Asia’s biggest economy continues to flood the airwaves and send ripples through world markets. As the World Bank cuts its 2024 China growth projection to 4.5% from 4.8%, the sense among economists is that the multilateral lender is still far too optimistic. Take the latest assessment by the Asian Development Bank of China’s fallout for the region. As weaknesses in China’s property sector “hold back regional growth,” the “risks to the outlook have intensified,” the ADB warns. The travails of China Evergrande Group – which resumed trading on Tuesday – have dented confidence, prompting investors to flee. The developer, which defaulted in 2021, recently admitted a major debt restructuring plan has failed. Its chairman, Hui Ka Yan, is under criminal investigation, prompting regulators to bar the company from issuing new debt. That’s “threatening to wreak even more damage to China’s real estate sector and the broader economy,” says analyst Thomas Gatley at Gavekal Dragonomics. What’s more, Gatley adds, “the chances of a government policy error that disrupts markets and the economy have increased.” As such, he warns, “the financial stress of property developers is spilling over onto other companies as developers delay or default on payments to their suppliers.” Given that China’s property sector generates as much as 30% of gross domestic product (GDP), that’s dreadful news for Asian neighbors betting on President Xi Jinping’s team stabilizing growth. Hence chatter in Asia about contagion risks hovering over the region’s 2024. “As defaults snowball through the sector and Beijing withholds relief, both market and homebuyer sentiment will likely continue to weaken and contribute to financial volatility,” says analyst Rick Waters at the Eurasia Group consultancy. Beijing is indeed rolling out a variety of measures to stabilize the property markets. Yet unlike previous episodes of slowing growth, the government is taking pains to relieve financial strains without re-inflating real estate bubbles. In late September, regulators prodded commercial banks to cut payment ratios for first-home purchases to 20% and to 30% for second-home purchases. Banks cut existing first-time mortgage rates for 40 million-plus borrowers. Also last month, Guangzhou was China’s first top-tier city to end curbs on buying more than two homes for residents or one for nonresidents. Other metropolises are seen doing the same. “But with more developers facing default and liquidation, homebuyer confidence will remain low despite easing measures,” Waters says. “Prices and sales will probably face continued declines in lower-tier cities.” China’s property woes are becoming a problem for wider Asia. Image: Twitter Karl Shen, an analyst at Fitch Ratings, says “we believe more top-tier cities with district-specific restrictions will follow suit to promote non-core areas and perhaps core areas as well. Such policies, if forthcoming, may further concentrate demand in larger cities, given their property sales are usually more constrained by policy. This will add little to national new homes given top-tier cities’ small share in total.” China’s property market may take as long a year to recover, officials say as they urge Beijing to do more to prod developers to repair balance sheets and avoid more defaults. Divining Xi’s behavior: It’s all about power Li Daokui, a former member of the People’s Bank of China monetary policy committee, told Bloomberg that sales in China’s biggest cities could return to growth in the next four to six months. In smaller cities, though, “it will take anything between six months to one year for a good recovery.” The only grain of good news in the World Bank’s latest forecast is that, excluding China, East Asian growth is seen accelerating slightly in 2024 amid improved prospects for manufactured goods and commodities. But, as World Bank economists point out, “what happens in China matters for the whole region. A 1% reduction in its growth is associated with a reduction in regional growth by 0.3 percentage points.” Or potentially more as the loss of Asia’s main growth engine negatively affects business, household and investor confidence across the region. Geopolitical tensions also stand out as downside risks. They include the specter of Saudi Arabia announcing additional oil production cuts, exacerbating global inflation risks. Aaditya Mattoo, chief World Bank economist for East Asia and the Pacific, says the region’s forecasters thought China’s post-pandemic recovery would be “more sustained and more significant than it turned out to be.” Instead, governments from Bangkok to Jakarta to Seoul are confronting the reality of stagnant China home prices and wages, weak retail sales, soft private sector investment and elevated household debt levels that will reverberate around the region. “This whole region, which had perversely benefited from US-China trade tensions in terms of [trade] diversion, now is suffering trade diversion away from it,” Mattoo explains. Economist Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management says China’s “third quarter has started on a weak note, with weakening exports and imports in July, a significant property developer reportedly missing a bond payment, and consumer price inflation joining producer price inflation in the negative year-over-year territory, although primarily due to food prices.” Innes adds that “the two major contributors to China’s growth – exports and property – are experiencing major setbacks and negatively impacting the local and broader ASEAN risk markets.” The Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) economies are grappling with elevated debt levels post-Covid-19. Rising US debt yields are a clear and present danger to the region’s ability to manage this overhang while also investing in domestic infrastructure, increased productivity and human capital. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, meanwhile, is hinting at a 12th tightening move in 18 months in the weeks ahead, adding to the headwinds bearing down on the world’s biggest economy and on Wall Street. US Federal Reserve Board chairman Jerome Powell has the fate of the global economy in his hands. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Mandel Ngan The cumulative effects of the most aggressive Fed tightening since the mid-1990s are weighing on US growth. Steady and sustained rate increases are beginning to crimp corporate profits and returns on equity, notes Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin. “In the new ‘higher-for-longer’ rates environment, the key risk for S&P 500 ROE will be higher interest expenses and lower leverage,” Kostin says. “A scenario in which interest expense and leverage persistently weigh on ROE would be a departure from the historical trend.” Analyst Kyle Rodda at Capital.com says “the world keeps getting more expensive. The rise in oil increased the upward pressure on bond yields and the combo of higher oil, higher yields, and a higher greenback tends not to augur well for equities.” To be sure, there’s some optimism that the Fed’s tightening cycle is indeed coming to a close. “Overall, spending remains positive and inflation is slowing, which will be welcome news to policymakers,” says economist Rubeela Farooqi at High Frequency Economics. Last week, Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, voiced hope the US is on the “golden path” to tamer inflation without an official recession. “The Fed,” Goolsbee says, “has the chance to achieve something quite rare in the history of central banks — to defeat inflation without tanking the economy. If we succeed, the golden path will be studied for years. If we fail, it will also be studied for years. But let’s aim to succeed.” There’s hope, too, that China’s economy will begin regaining its footing faster than skeptics expect. “A central-government-led, comprehensive plan to resolve local debt risk may be unveiled before/at the Third Plenum this fall,” says economist Robin Xing at Morgan Stanley. “The combination of these measures could allow the economy to rebound modestly from the fourth quarter 2023 onward.” Yao Yang, dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, says that “probably in half a year, we are going to see the housing market stabilize.” Previously, he says, regulators were “overshooting” in their real estate crackdown. Now, “gradually, the central government is going to loosen up on the supply side, too.” In September, China’s new home prices increased slightly after four straight months of decline. The respite reflected developers speeding up launches to harness Beijing’s recent support measures. Though small, the average 0.05% price increase from August was the biggest month-on-month gain since October 2021, according to real estate advisory China Index Academy. Of 100 mainland cities surveyed, only 30 reported declines in new home prices. From a psychological standpoint, the resumption of trading in China Evergrande shares on Tuesday – and a powerful rally of as much as 42% – on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange could provide a boost. On September 28, shares in the company and units like Evergrande Property Services Group were suspended. A day earlier, China Evergrande founder Hui had reportedly been taken into police custody. Yet the dire need for restructuring lies ahead, says analyst Liu Jieqi at UOB Kay Hian Holdings. Going forward, converting all debt to shares of Evergrande or of its arms remains the “only option for debt restructuring,” a maneuver that “faces great uncertainties.” Yet others worry the recent stumble by developer Country Garden is a bad omen for China’s 2024. “Country Garden was synonymous with China’s mass-market housing and urbanization story,” write analysts at Barclays. Its troubles making debt payments “shook what little confidence remained in the market.” Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff adds that “the whole industry is in trouble” following years of massive oversupply of homes across China’s $18 trillion economy. “How do you prevent the Chinese population from going into a panic mode since most of its wealth might collapse?” Rogoff asks. “It’s not easy.” An added challenge, says Michelle Lam, economist at Société Générale, is that “Chinese households no longer view housing as a safe investment.” Chinese Premier Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping. Photo: Xinhua This has Xi and Premier Li Qiang stepping up efforts to strengthen China’s capital markets to entice households to invest in stocks. And to build deeper social safety nets to encourage consumers to spend more and save less. At best, though, the transition from investment and property-led growth is a work in progress. That’s true in China and beyond. “In a region which has really thrived through trade and investment in manufacturing, the next big key to growth will come from reforming the services sectors to harness the digital revolution,” Mattoo says. In the meantime, Asia is in harm’s way. And not just from China. The World Bank notes that US President Joe Biden’s protectionist policies aimed at China are negatively affecting exports of machinery and electronics. Nations in the crosshairs include Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. “The treatment under these provisions is discriminating against countries which are not exempt from the local content requirements,” Mattoo says. Between China’s slowdown and Washington grappling with recession speculation, 2024 looks like a buckle-those-seatbelts year to come.
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Post by Blitz on Oct 4, 2023 6:31:49 GMT -5
Xi’s broken model Why China’s economy won’t be fixed An increasingly autocratic government is making bad decisions China’s leader, Xi Jinping, rides a dragon that transforms into a snail Aug 24th 2023 www.economist.com/leaders/2023/08/24/why-chinas-economy-wont-be-fixedWhatever has gone wrong? After China rejoined the world economy in 1978, it became the most spectacular growth story in history. Farm reform, industrialisation and rising incomes lifted nearly 800m people out of extreme poverty. Having produced just a tenth as much as America in 1980, China’s economy is now about three-quarters the size. Yet instead of roaring back after the government abandoned its “zero-covid” policy at the end of 2022, it is lurching from one ditch to the next. The economy grew at an annualised rate of just 3.2% in the second quarter, a disappointment that looks even worse given that, by one prominent estimate, America’s may be growing at almost 6%. House prices have fallen and property developers, who tend to sell houses before they are built, have hit the wall, scaring off buyers. Consumer spending, business investment and exports have all fallen short. And whereas much of the world battles inflation that is too high, China is suffering from the opposite problem: consumer prices fell in the year to July. Some analysts warn that China may enter a deflationary trap like Japan’s in the 1990s . Yet in some ways Japanification is too mild a diagnosis of China’s ills. A chronic shortfall in growth would be worse in China because its people are poorer. Japan’s living standards were about 60% of America’s by 1990; China’s today are less than 20%. And, unlike Japan, China is also suffering from something more profound than weak demand and heavy debt. Many of its challenges stem from broader failures of its economic policymaking—which are getting worse as President Xi Jinping centralises power. A decade or so ago China’s technocrats were seen almost as savants. First they presided over an economic marvel. Then China was the only big economy to respond to the global financial crisis of 2007-09 with sufficient stimulatory force—some commentators went as far as to say that China had saved the world economy. In the 2010s, every time the economy wobbled, officials defied predictions of calamity by cheapening credit, building infrastructure or stimulating the property market. During each episode, however, public and private debts mounted. So did doubts about the sustainability of the housing boom and whether new infrastructure was really needed. Today policymakers are in a bind. Wisely, they do not want more white elephants or to reflate the property bubble. Nor can they do enough of the more desirable kinds of stimulus, such as pension spending and handouts to poor households to boost consumption, because Mr Xi has disavowed “welfarism” and the government seeks an official deficit of only 3% of gdp. As a result, the response to the slowdown has been lacklustre. Policymakers are not even willing to cut interest rates much. On August 21st they disappointed investors with an underwhelming cut of 0.1 percentage points in the one-year lending rate. This feeble response to tumbling growth and inflation is the latest in a series of policy errors. China’s foreign-policy swagger and its mercantilist industrial policy have aggravated an economic conflict with America. At home it has failed to deal adequately with incentives to speculate on housing and a system in which developers have such huge obligations that they are systemically important. Starting in 2020 regulators tanked markets by cracking down on successful consumer-technology firms that were deemed too unruly and monopolistic. During the pandemic, officials bought time with lockdowns but failed to use it to vaccinate enough people for a controlled exit, and then were overwhelmed by the highly contagious Omicron variant. Why does the government keep making mistakes? One reason is that short-term growth is no longer the priority of the Chinese Communist Party (ccp). The signs are that Mr Xi believes China must prepare for sustained economic and, potentially, military conflict with America. Today, therefore, he emphasises China’s pursuit of national greatness, security and resilience. He is willing to make material sacrifices to achieve those goals, and to the extent he wants growth, it must be “high quality”. Yet even by Mr Xi’s criteria, the ccp’s decisions are flawed. The collapse of the zero-covid policy undermined Mr Xi’s prestige. The attack on tech firms has scared off entrepreneurs. Should China fall into persistent deflation because the authorities refuse to boost consumption, debts will rise in real value and weigh more heavily on the economy. Above all, unless the ccp continues to raise living standards, it will weaken its grip on power and limit its ability to match America. Mounting policy failures therefore look less like a new, self-sacrificing focus on national security, than plain bad decision-making. They have coincided with Mr Xi’s centralisation of power and his replacement of technocrats with loyalists in top jobs. China used to tolerate debate about its economy, but today it cajoles analysts into fake optimism. Recently it has stopped publishing unflattering data on youth unemployment and consumer confidence. The top ranks of government still contain plenty of talent, but it is naive to expect a bureaucracy to produce rational analysis or inventive ideas when the message from the top is that loyalty matters above all. Instead, decisions are increasingly governed by an ideology that fuses a left-wing suspicion of rich entrepreneurs with a right-wing reluctance to hand money to the idle poor. The fact that China’s problems start at the top means they will persist. They may even worsen, as clumsy policymakers confront the economy’s mounting challenges. The population is ageing rapidly. America is increasingly hostile, and is trying to choke the parts of China’s economy, like chipmaking, that it sees as strategically significant. The more China catches up with America, the harder the gap will be to close further, because centralised economies are better at emulation than at innovation. Liberals’ predictions about China have often betrayed wishful thinking. In the 2000s Western leaders mistakenly believed that trade, markets and growth would boost democracy and individual liberty. But China is now testing the reverse relationship: whether more autocracy damages the economy. The evidence is mounting that it does—and that after four decades of fast growth China is entering a period of disappointment.
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Post by Blitz on Oct 7, 2023 7:22:39 GMT -5
US provocatively points new nuke-tipped missile at China AGM-181A cruise missile bolsters US air-based nuclear deterrent and aims to give China pause on Taiwan and in South China Sea By GABRIEL HONRADA - OCTOBER 5, 2023 asiatimes.com/2023/10/us-provocatively-points-new-nuke-tipped-missile-at-china/US airmen attach AGM-86B cruise missiles to a B-52H. The AGM-181A LRSO is scheduled to replace it. Image: US Air Force The US has just tested a new type of nuclear-tipped air launch cruise missile, reaffirming the viability of the air-based leg of its nuclear triad against evolving threats from near-peer adversaries China and Russia with profound implications for regional stability and global non-proliferation norms. This month, The Warzone reported that the US Air Force had conducted nine flight tests of its future nuclear-tipped AGM-181A Long Range Stand Off (LRSO) cruise missile prototypes, including one test with a mock nuclear warhead. The Warzone notes that the milestones were reported in a 2022 Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) released last month, with the tests aiming to gauge the missile’s stealthy capabilities. The report mentions the US Air Force has selected Raytheon to develop the AGM-181A LRSO missile, which will replace the AGM-86B Air-Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM). The missile is part of the Long Range Strike family and has reportedly undergone nine successful major flight tests, demonstrating its high survivability with a stealthy airframe. The Warzone says the Pentagon’s 2022 acquisition report classified all nine test events as flight tests, but not all involved independent missile flights. It notes that captive carry sorties were conducted for safety and that four powered-flight tests were deemed successful, including a Controlled Test Mission (CTM-1) test demonstrating the design’s maturity, manufacturing processes and navigation system performance. The Warzone report also says that the US Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has revealed that the first powered flight test of an AGM-181A LRSO Cruise Missile with a W80-4 nuclear warhead launched from a B-52 bomber was conducted, with a decision about low-rate initial production expected in 2027. The AGM-181A LRSO with the variable yield W80-4 warhead may be crucial for the US to fill a perceived nuclear deterrence gap resulting from the downsizing of its nuclear arsenal after the previous Cold War while its near-peer adversaries, China and Russia, continued to develop tactical nuclear weapons. In a January 2021 article for The Heritage Foundation, Patty-Jane Geller mentions that the US AGM-86B ALCM has been upgraded to be operational until 2030, 38 years beyond its intended lifetime. Geller notes that Russia and China’s improving air defense systems make penetrating hostile airspace increasingly prohibitive and that continuing to use the AGM-86B instead of developing the AGM-181A LRSO would send a signal to adversaries that the US lacks a modern and capable air-launched nuclear cruise missile capability. Geller also notes that the US Air Force must maintain a credible air-based nuclear deterrent, mentioning that with the AGM-86B ALCM retiring soon, the AGM-181A LRSO is the only solution to keep the B-52H nuclear-capable. She also says that while the US Air Force has committed to ordering at least 100 B-21 Raiders to replace B-2 and B-1 bombers, only a stealthy cruise missile such as the AGM-181A LRSO can hold specific targets at risk. In addition, she says that the LRSO will ensure the B-21’s stealth technology remains effective against evolving military technology and advanced air defenses. Geller also mentions that the AGM-181A LRSO program allows bombers to train on multiple targets while standing off from enemy air defenses, thereby contributing to the credibility of US deterrence. Such capability, Geller notes, allows the US president to deter an adversary from attacking first and respond proportionately to an adversary’s limited use of nuclear weapons. That flexibility, she says, makes air defense more complicated for US adversaries, forcing them to plan for incoming cruise missiles from multiple attack vectors. Moreover, Geller says that the AGM-181A LRSO reduces risk to bombers and personnel, thus increasing the credibility of deterrence as adversaries will be less convinced of US willingness to send people flying into air defenses than if the US can launch safely from friendly territory. The development of the AGM-181A LRSO may spark a proportionate nuclear response from China and Russia, which could entail strategic-level cooperation to increase their respective nuclear arsenals, sparking a renewed nuclear arms race with the US. In March 2023, Asia Times reported that Russia plans to provide China with fast breeder nuclear reactor technology, allowing Beijing to significantly grow its nuclear arsenal and tip the global nuclear bomb balance. An agreement was announced by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin to continue the development of fast breeder nuclear reactors that are specifically designed for the production of plutonium, which can be used in nuclear weapons. In December 2022, Russia’s Rosatom transferred 25 tons of highly enriched uranium to China’s CFR-600 nuclear reactor. US officials and military planners believe the reactor will help China increase its nuclear arsenal from 400 warheads to 1,500 by 2035. However, China denies this and claims the reactor is part of its civilian power grid and will be installed toward the aim of becoming the world’s top nuclear energy generator. Russia has shifted its approach towards China due to the Western sanctions imposed after its military invasion of Ukraine. Despite long-term concerns about China’s potential threat in Russia’s Far East, Moscow has provided it with nuclear technology to strengthen its position vis-a-vis the West. China is growing its nuclear arsenal to improve the likelihood that its arsenal will survive in the event of a war with the US. China can strengthen its second-strike capability by having a more extensive and more varied nuclear arsenal. This project puts China in a better position to use its nuclear weapons as a coercive tool and employ them if necessary. America’s development of the AGM-181A LRSO also has profound implications for regional military strategies and strategic-level deterrence. For one, the AGM-181A LRSO missile could be crucial in deterring or responding to aggressive actions in the Taiwan Strait, where China has been conducting military exercises and missile tests. The presence of a stealthy, long-range missile like the AGM-181A LRSO could discourage such drills and tests. Moreover, the AGM-181A LRSO’s ability to penetrate advanced missile defenses would be critical in a conflict. In the South China Sea, tensions are also running high due to territorial disputes and China’s recent militarization of artificial islands. The AGM-181A LRSO could serve as a deterrent in this theater as well. The 181A LRSO’s long range could allow it to strike from distances beyond the reach of enemy defenses, which could help maintain freedom of navigation in the contested waters. China’s military installations in the South China Sea could be a target of new AGM-181A LRSOs. Photo: Asia Times files / EyePress / Digital Globe The AGM-181A’s development could also have profound implications for global nuclear non-proliferation by contradicting the spirit, objectives and disarmament provisions of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). While the AGM-181A LRSO per se is not a nuclear weapon, its development as a nuclear delivery system could also raise concerns about potential violations of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Additionally, amid ongoing nuclear arsenal modernization programs and uncertain statuses of other key treaties like New START, the AGM-181A LRSO’s development could further complicate and dangerously jeopardize diplomatic efforts between nuclear-armed states amid rising tensions in what some see as a budding new cold war.
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Post by Blitz on Oct 9, 2023 7:12:48 GMT -5
Chinese nuclear submarine disaster: all but one crew died, Yellow sea VIDEO Oct 03, 2023 at 23:27 in Accidents by Mikhail Voytenko www.fleetmon.com/maritime-news/2023/43149/chinese-nuclear-submarine-disaster-all-one-crew-di/Chinese nuclear submarine disaster: all but one crew died, Yellow sea VIDEO For at least a month rumors have been circulating in social nets, claiming the deaths of the entire crew of Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy.nuclear submarine 093-417 in Yellow sea, sometime in late August. Seems like rumors are confirmed, and all but one 56 crew have died. Submarine got caught in an underwater trap aimed at US and allies submarines, made of cables and chains. 093-417 got entangled in this trap, and sent a diver to assist submarine release. When he completed the task and returned, he was met with dead silence. It is with great efforts that the Navy ships managed to surface submarine, with 55 dead crew, including Skipper and 22 officers. According to Chinese sources, death was caused by air system’s oxygen sulfide poisoning, while submarine, astonishingly, wasn’t equipped with proper gas detectors. Diver surfaced and was rescued, he is reportedly, in a deep depression. Beijing dnied this accident and related rumors, but recent top brass resigns, arrests and shuffles are attributed, partially, to 093-417 disaster. Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy.nuclear submarine 093-417 of 093 type, displacement 6096, speed 30 knots, complement 100 max, armament torpedoes, anti-ship missiles.
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Post by Blitz on Oct 9, 2023 9:51:02 GMT -5
Divining Xi’s behavior: It’s all about power Disappearing officials could be Xi’s version of ‘draining the swamp’ but could also signal he’s gearing up for a showdown with the US By GRANT NEWSHAM - OCTOBER 3, 2023 asiatimes.com/2023/10/divining-xis-behavior-its-all-about-power/Xi Jinping. Photo: CNA In China, espionage laws are being tightened and senior officials are “disappearing” — most recently the defense minister. Meanwhile, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is throwing its weight around in the region. Here’s the thing to remember when considering Communist China: It’s all about power and control for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and especially for whoever is at the top. Xi Jinping also has to control the CCP and that’s still a work in progress. It always is. Support for Ukraine preparing US for future wars - READ MORE Regarding the “disappearing officials” and the defense minister, in particular, one hopes the CIA and the rest of the US intelligence community with their US$80 billion budget know the answer and aren’t just speculating like the rest of us. But here’s how I see it. There probably isn’t a single Chinese official at these levels who isn’t guilty of corruption. And even if there are a few “clean” ones, as Soviet secret police chief Lavrentiy Beria said, “Show me the man and I’ll show you the crime.” So it is unlikely that the minister got caught because of “corruption,” unlikely that Xi is just cleaning out a corrupt official or three. “Corruption” seems to be the modern version of the Maoist era’s “counter-revolutionary activities.” It’s the go-to, catch-all charge for getting rid of people and making it look like they were guilty of something. Defense Minister Li Shangfu at the Asian Security Conference in Singapore on June 4, 2023. Photo: Kyodo So why is Xi doing it? Possible motives It could be the officials’ poor performance. The PLA has flubbed some exercises. And it has exhibited some serious failings. Or maybe they just weren’t taking things seriously enough and Xi didn’t think he’d gotten their attention or could count on them. Maybe. But the PLA has had problems for years and the Chinese talk about it all the time. Note frequent complaints about the PLA’s “peace disease” and other military shortcomings. I suspect Xi is worried about something internally. He might see opposition forming in certain quarters. He’s no doubt got plenty of enemies after purging his rivals over the years. This is the nature of dictatorships and regimes that rule by force and intimidation. All opposition is rooted out – even preemptively, and even where it does not exist. Instill enough fear and it’s less likely anyone will take down the boss. Or so the theory goes. Or perhaps Xi wants to get his team of totally pliant toadies and incompetents in place. Men who pose no threat to him – and who will follow orders when he makes a move somewhere? Say, against Taiwan, India, Mongolia or Japan? Xi has clearly been trying to get control of the economy as well – particularly, the more productive parts that aren’t under tight enough state control. It seems as if Xi were purposely tanking the economy – wouldn’t mind making the middle class and the more prosperous coastal provinces toughen up. Maybe this is Xi’s version of “draining the swamp.” Harassing foreign firms in China seems an act of self-harm. But think about it in terms of consolidating power and control and there’s a logic. Still, it’s only doable if Xi thinks he can get away with it. And that suggests contempt for foreign businessmen who, Xi must reckon, will put up with any amount of abuse if they think they can make money in China. But to do that, Xi’s got to have confidence that China can withstand any pressure or backlash that comes from this clampdown. Xi also seems to have been sanction-proofing China for a while now. It’s not sanction-proofed just yet, but if he’s willing to have his own citizens “eat bitterness” it may not matter so much. What’s the end game? - Achieve regional domination and control. - Teach the Japanese a lesson. - Drive the Americans out of Asia. - And ultimately have global dominance. Perhaps Xi reckons the timing is right in terms of China’s military capability, economic power and demographics as well as the PRC’s overseas foreign influence. For all the news that the United States has been kind of waking up to the China threat, and the Europeans, as well, there are plenty of other countries that are aligning with the PRC. Latin America and Africa almost seem like clean sweeps for Beijing at the moment. Parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands are either on China’s side or wavering. And the Persian Gulf and Middle East have seen recent Chinese inroads as well. No more following Deng Xiaoping‘s admonition about biding one’s time and hiding capabilities. Xi must also like what he sees the United States doing to itself. He may doubt the US capability to restore its economic independence and clout. And to get its military where it needs to be within the next 5-10 years, if that. Indeed, the PRC knows many of the people on Team Joe Biden from way back. It could be counting on their proclivity to back down and “talk,” while offering concessions to ensure the Chinese don’t walk away from the table. One fairly imagines Beijing won’t mind getting another four years of this crowd. Is Xi going to roll the dice and start a fight? I don’t know. But he might be sorely tempted. What a fight would look like and where it would happen is up for debate. But Taiwan and the South China Sea seem likely. Even if there’s no shooting yet, Xi is pushing if you look at Chinese moves around Taiwan, the Philippines, and Japan. The PLA is doing more things, more often, in more places – and sometimes it’s even bringing its friends in the form of Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend an official welcome ceremony at the Grand Kremlin Palace, in Moscow, March 21, 2023. Photo: Alexey Maishev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool And the Chinese military keeps improving its capabilities. All this PLA activity influences and wears out the opponent. It also lets the PLA and Beijing size up their targets’ military responses and capabilities as well as their political backbone to stand up to Chinese pressure. Of course, it can also have the opposite effect. It could motivate these nations to strengthen defenses and alliances. And to some extent, it is. Regardless, Xi is doubling down. How about the US? And it’s almost as if Xi were daring the Americans to “do something.” It’s a miracle that Chinese naval and air interdictions of US and allied aircraft and ships haven’t killed somebody yet. The China-Philippines dispute at Second Thomas Shoal will come to a head sooner or later. And the Americans will either get directly involved or else leave the Filipinos in the lurch again. The latter would shake the US-Philippines alliance, to say the least. Yet, Team Biden still seems to prioritize more discussions over strengthening America’s defense. Where’s the plan for rebuilding US shipbuilding or the US Navy? Instead, as one acquaintance put it: “It would seem that the American leadership is firmly trying to walk back confronting China.” The US leadership talks (over and over) about the need to “stabilize” and “responsibly manage” the US-PRC relationship through “intensive diplomacy” and talking things out with Beijing. As if US administrations (bar one) hadn’t tried this over the last 50 years. Beijing is glad to have Team Biden think that’s still possible. And Xi is acting accordingly. He is getting ready. Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He is the author of the book When China Attacks: A Warning To America. This article was originally published by JAPAN Forward and is republished with permission.
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Post by Blitz on Oct 15, 2023 11:59:51 GMT -5
It’s official: The era of China’s global dominance is over China has reached the end of its economic boom. What comes next should worry every American business — and the rest of the world. Tyler Le/Insider Linette Lopez -Oct 15, 2023, 6:22 AM EDT www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-economy-real-estate-debt-bust-american-companies-2023-10We've reached the end of an era for the Chinese economy. For the past three decades, China has been on the upswing of a supercycle that saw an almost uninterrupted expansion of the country's capacity to manufacture, appetite to consume, and ability to project power across the world economy. The Chinese Communist Party relentlessly pursued economic development over all else, even when that single-mindedness pushed the party to make debilitating policy mistakes — creating a massive bubble in the property market, saddling provinces with loads of debt, and failing to transition away from an overreliance on investment. There was no time to stop for corrections while China's mind was on money alone. This era of expansion was not only a boon for Beijing, it also helped fuel global demand. Countries relied on China's hunger for speedy modernization and industrial might to supercharge their own development. Even American companies saw China as the next great global market — and made bets accordingly. They lost those bets. President Xi Jinping has shifted the CCP's raison d'être to national security over the economy. Getting rich isn't China's big project anymore; the project is power. As a result, both the government's priorities and behavior have changed. In the past, whenever it seemed like a recession was on the horizon, the CCP came to rescue. There's no hefty stimulus coming this time. Nor will the explosive growth that experts once expected from China return. Beijing's relationship with the outside world is no longer guided by the principles of economic rationality, but rather its yearning for political power. "This isn't about the economy anymore, it's all about advanced technology and weaponry," Lee Miller, the founder of the Chinese economic surveyor China Beige Book, told me. In response, American businesses need to consider how else Beijing's decision-making may now be flipped on its axis. For everyone from American farmers to pharmaceutical companies, this means shrinking demand and unstable supply chains. For policymakers, it means a China that is harder to mollify when conflicts arise. For the rest of us, it's a more precarious world. A spent economic system The Chinese economy has been bending under the weight of its structural problems for almost a decade now, but since the end of Xi's COVID-lockdown policy, it's become clear that its growth model is well and truly broken. Beijing's story so far has been to claim that, like other economies on the mend from the pandemic, China will in time resume its normal growth pattern. Instead, it looks like the economy is falling behind. Let's start with the country's real-estate market, the importance of which cannot be overstated. Not only is it the biggest source of wealth for Chinese households, real estate is also the mechanism through which local governments are financed. Instead of property taxes, municipalities sell large swaths of land to property developers and then use the revenue for basic social services like fixing roads and paying out pensions. Cities like Shanghai and Beijing get a lot of attention, but they make up just a fraction of the property market. Property firms did the most building in third-tier cities where people aren't as wealthy. This is where you'll find China's infamous ghost cities. It's been clear for years that the Chinese real-estate market has been in trouble. China has a population of 1.4 billion, but it has built housing for a population of 3 billion, according to expert estimates. Many of the mega-developments became empty monuments to Beijing's insatiable desire for growth. In Shenyang, farmers have taken over a development of empty mansions for cattle grazing. Worried that the sector would implode, Beijing attempted on multiple occasions to limit the credit that was fueling the bubble. But because real estate played such a vital role as a government-funding mechanism, China had to keep building, despite these troubles. Authorities didn't want to change the way local governments funded themselves or allow Chinese household finances to crumble, so they could not let prices fall. That credit addiction remains. The Chinese real estate sector — built on government-fueled speculation and a massive amount of debt — is starting to break down. China Photos/Getty Images But this system, supported by speculation and easy money, is starting to break down. Country Garden, China's largest real-estate developer, is on the brink of collapse. In a sign that Beijing has grown tired of this game, Xu Jiayin, the chairman of Evergrande, another embattled real-estate behemoth, has been detained by authorities. Money-starved provinces are being forced to ask for bailouts — which the federal government doesn't want to give — and sell assets that the local governments claim are illiquid. The country's massive, opaque shadow-banking sector, which served as the backbone for the real-estate boom, is also under pressure. At least one $87 billion money manager, Zhongrong Trust, skipped payments to investors this summer, sparking protests. "We've not been in a situation where so many developers are defaulting and consumers are questioning whether or not they should prepay for an apartment," Charlene Chu, the managing director and senior analyst at Autonomous Research, told me. "Before they were thinking, 'Prices are rising so fast, I need to get in.' Now prices are declining and the urgency to buy has vanished, so they're waiting." Official data has shown relatively modest price declines so far, but like a lot of official economic data coming from Biejing these days, it's hard to take those numbers seriously. Private data shows prices falling by 15% in metropolises like Shenzhen and Shanghai. In tier-two and tier-three cities, prices have fallen by as much as 50%, according to Bloomberg. "Eighty percent of all sales by area are in tier-three and below cities," Chu said, adding that many of these places are facing long-term structural problems. "If their market doesn't come back, the entire market doesn't come back." Little fires everywhere all at once The real-estate sector is the most visible sign of China's fading star, but other key parts of the economy are showing strain as well. While the rest of the world is battling inflation, China is still in deflationary mode. August CPI came in at 0.1%, up from minus-0.3% the month before, showing an overall lack of domestic demand. Exports — which make up 40% of the country's GDP growth — hit their lowest level in three years in July, falling 14% from the same time a year before. August export figures showed some improvement but still came in down 8.8% from the year before. Overall, Autonomous expects China's exports to slow 8% compared to last year. Chu — who has been called the "rock star" of Chinese debt analysis — told me that this weakness is not just a result of a cyclical downturn; it's a part of a more permanent shifting of supply chains caused by trade tensions with Europe and the US. These are powerful forces that are not easily reversed. Once multinational corporations no longer see China as a source of steady growth, they could begin changing their plans to invest. At the same time, domestic anxiety about shrinking employment may change the basic consumer behavior that powered China's rise. This can create a vicious, self-reinforcing cycle that keeps investment out and spending low. The authorities are playing a game of whack-a-mole, trying to contain any shocks to the financial system because they fear social instability. Chu started the year with one of the weakest growth outlooks for China on Wall Street, and the second half is looking worse. Autonomous' proprietary growth index for China, the Real Autono Economic Activity Composite, projects the country's economy to grow by 3.8% for all of 2023, down from its original 4.2% projection in January — and worse than Autonomous projected during the depths of China's COVID lockdown. Beijing is projecting 5% growth — and given how tightly the CCP likes to manage expectations, officials will stick to that number come hell or high water. It's a far cry from the double-digit growth policymakers used to demand and a signal to the Chinese people that Beijing is not going to direct its banks to spew credit to get the economy moving faster again. Victor Shih, an associate professor and the director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego, told me that when people ask him if there will be a financial crisis in China, he tells them that China "is constantly in a financial crisis." It's like the authorities are playing a game of whack-a-mole, trying to contain any shocks to the financial system because they fear social instability. That means there can be no correction, but if there's no correction, there's no deleveraging, and if there's no deleveraging, the moles will only multiply. Zombies in the Middle Kingdom The economy has put Beijing in a bind. There's too much for the Chinese Communist Party to do, and not enough money or time to do it. Allowing a property-market correction, bailing out local governments, creating a new funding mechanism for them, developing a social safety net for the people through all this instability — all of it costs money. And even if the capital were there, policymakers fear what this disruption could do to their grip on power. Falling property prices and shrinking exports would weigh on the Chinese people's wealth, and the government is concerned that a meaningful correction would cause unrest. "Every time there are severe property-price declines, Beijing views it as a risk to social stability," Chu said. Plus, Beijing may need to conserve its firepower for other concerns coming down the pipeline. In the long-term, the CCP has to worry about China's demographics. Thanks to government mandates like the one-child policy, the country's population is rapidly aging — and even started to decline in 2022. The workforce will soon begin shrinking: Right now there are three working-age adults for every retired person in China, according to data compiled by J Capital Research, and by 2050, that ratio will hit one to one. Without booming property prices or continued growth, the growing pool of retirees will put a heavy burden on China's threadbare social safety net. GDP per capita is currently about $12,800. When Japan started struggling in 1991 with a similar dynamic — aging population, sky-high debt, and slowing growth — its GDP per capita was more than triple that amount, at $41,266 in today's dollars. China will get old before it gets rich, placing the task of growing the economy on fewer and fewer people as time goes on. Getting rich isn't China's big project anymore; the project is power. "What's really a shame is that China never seized the opportunity on the way up to build a comprehensive social safety net where people feel they don't have to save a lot of money for a rainy day — for healthcare, education, what have you," Chu told me. "Most Chinese people do not feel they are covered for everything they need … This is what's going to make moving to the domestic, demand-driven model difficult." Unless dramatic action is taken, the future of China's economy is looking less like a young dynamo and more like an old, slow-moving blob. Last week, Bloomberg reported that policymakers are considering a modest $137 billion stimulus — just enough to meet its already comparatively low annual growth target, and nothing in the way of reform. "There are healthy parts of the economy, it's just the zombie parts that have to be dealt with," Shih said. "It doesn't look like they are doing that now, but it will be a bigger and bigger drag on growth. I think the slow growth will cause such a serious employment and capital-flight problem, there could be political instability." But again, that's could, not will. And because its priority is now power — where gains are much more idiosyncratic — it's a risk that Beijing has shown it is willing to take. A new, more dangerous era The idea that Chinese policymakers connect political stability and economic growth is dogma in the West, but what we're witnessing now suggests that's not the case — at least not in practice. Beijing has not spent money on — or talked about raising money for — social programs for its aging population, nor has it made any attempts to tackle the cost of living for young families. If economic modernization was the most important thing, these would have been on the docket years ago. But they're not. Policymakers don't want an implosion, but they're not pushing for warp-speed development anymore either. "All the policies are now determined by Xi Jinping himself, and his priorities are spending money to engage in a technology and national-security race with the US," Shih explained. President Xi Jinping has shifted China's priorities from economic growth to what one experts calls a "technology and national-security race with the US." Lintao Zhang Once upon a time, infrastructure and property were the big beneficiaries of Beijing's largess, now it's the military. US government estimates put China's annual defense budget at about $700 billion, much higher than independent NGO estimates of about $290 billion and just shy of what the US spends on defense annually, $800 billion. "If we're talking about the economic relationship between the US and China, there just isn't that much going on," China Beige Book's Miller told me over the phone. "The worry we have is not that Chinese consumers will do even less. It's that all the global supply chains are intermixed in industries like pharmaceutical and green tech. If things get too tense, it's potential supply-chain snarls that coil and screw up US business." Miller told me that multinational corporations are not only unsure of where to go next, they also lack full transparency as to where China impacts some supply chains. "It's not just that we have a problem," he said, "it's that we don't even know how big the problem is." China has never been a big consumer of American imports, but certain sectors will get hurt as our trade relationship is reset. A faltering Chinese economy will suppress demand for commodities like oil seeds and grain, hitting US farmers especially hard. It will also eat into corporate profits for companies such as Nike and Starbucks that made large bets on Chinese consumers. US restrictions on technology exports — created to counter new national-security concerns — threaten the more than $50 billion of revenue that US chipmakers generate selling to China. Wall Street doesn't have to go home, but it can't stay here. The WSJ reported that foreign executives are jittery about visiting China, afraid they'll never be allowed to leave. The great traveling circus that is hot money and adventure capitalism is already scouring the world for its next opportunity in countries like Mexico and Vietnam. These are forces bigger than Beijing. Earlier this month, the House Select China Competition Committee held a hearing in New York City, calling on witnesses to describe what risk looks like with a Chinese Communist Party that's less committed to the free flow of capital and more concerned with flexing its muscles within its region. In her testimony, Anne Stevenson-Yang, the founder of J Capital Research, said that the US — especially its Midwest industrial heartland — isn't invested in China because of market demand. It's invested there for the outsourcing of mechanical goods and labor. For the US economy, China as a workshop is much more important than China as a consumer. Companies will need to scour their supply chains for potential vulnerabilities and consider their exposure accordingly. When Beijing is focused on national security, rules can change at the drop of a dime. Foreign businesspeople who once sought efficiencies going in may find it cumbersome to get out. "The biggest risk there is the currency," Stevenson-Yang explained. "As companies make more money and want to move it to the US, they run into currency controls and they might not be able to get dollars out." It's time to imagine a future where China does not become rich but may remain powerful — building its army and continuing to develop its domestic technological capabilities. History has shown that economic privation need not impede China's technological achievement. During the depths of the Maoist purges, the CCP was still able to develop the atomic bomb, the hydrogen bomb, and its own intercontinental ballistic missiles. Xi has warned China to prepare for "great struggles" on the road to glory. Now that China's economic supercycle is over, that may be the cycle we're about to witness. It will be a painful adjustment. Correction: October 15, 2023 — An earlier version of this story misstated the defense budgets of China and the United States. They are about $700 billion and $800 billion, respectively, not $700 million and $800 million.
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Post by Blitz on Oct 18, 2023 11:48:30 GMT -5
US preparing for a two-front China-Russia war New US Congress report urges deterrence posture upgrades and adjustments to neutralize potent new nuclear threats By GABRIEL HONRADA - OCTOBER 18, 2023 asiatimes.com/2023/10/us-preparing-for-a-two-front-china-russia-war/The US, China, and Russia are locked in a new Cold War. Image: Facebook Screengrab A recent US Congress report urges a strategic defensive posture review of simultaneous near-peer conventional and nuclear threats. This month, the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the US released a report urging the country to be prepared for a two-front conflict against China and Russia. The report says that US defense strategy and strategic posture must change to properly defend its vital interests and improve strategic stability with the two nuclear-armed adversaries while advocating that critical decisions should be made now to address nuclear threats expected to arise during the 2027-2035 timeframe. It also assessed that the US needs to address the looming nuclear threat with a comprehensive strategy and force structure adjustments. Although it says the fundamentals of US deterrence strategy remain sound, size and composition adjustments are needed to its nuclear capabilities. The report also emphasizes the importance of non-nuclear capabilities for the US strategic posture, including strengthened infrastructure and risk reduction efforts. It notes allies and partners are crucial to the US approach in the new emerging threat environment. The report recommends that the US Congress fund the expansion of the US nuclear weapons defense industrial base and the Department of Energy (DOE)/National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) nuclear security enterprise. It also suggests that Congress should ensure funding stability for the defense industry to respond to innovative Department of Defense (DOD) contracting approaches. The report’s recommendations include deploying a stronger space architecture with offensive and defensive elements, prioritizing funding for long-range precision strike programs, developing homeland missile defense systems and transferring missile defense responsibility to the Military Departments by October 2024. The report says that the US should maintain and strengthen its network of alliances and partnerships to deter aggression, ensure regional security and boost economic prosperity through access to international markets. It warns that withdrawing from these relationships would benefit adversaries, increase the risk of aggression and reduce the US and its allies’ security and economic prosperity. Asian allies: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on a stroll during the recent Camp David Summit. Image: EAF It also recommends exploring nuclear arms control opportunities and researching potential verification technologies to support future negotiations in the US national interest that seek to limit all nuclear weapon types. The foundation of US national defense, including the defense of allies and support of military operations, is based on the concept of nuclear deterrence that has been in place since 1945. Tempting fate in the South China Sea In a January 2023 article for the US Naval Institute, Daniel Post outlines the value and limits of nuclear deterrence. Post says that the unparalleled destructiveness of nuclear weapons underpins their deterrent value, making them desirable to acquire alongside conventional military capabilities. Given that, he says the US nuclear strategy must aim at manipulating the rational calculations of adversaries by understanding how its capabilities are perceived by the other. Post also says nuclear weapons are useless to coerce other states but are effective when held in reserve as a defensive capability, denying benefits and imposing costs on aggressors once deterrence has failed, noting that they deter nuclear and other major strategic attacks on the US and its allies and major state-on-state wars between nuclear powers. Along with nuclear deterrence, conventional deterrence is more applicable to a broader range of circumstances, has greater flexibility than nuclear weapons and is not subject to the political constraints of the former. Robert Haffa Jr argues in a 2018 article for Strategic Studies Quarterly that the US should reinforce the logic of conventional deterrence as a central concept of its defense policy. However, Haffa points out that the main issue with conventional deterrence is its tendency to fail. Given that, he says Cold War-era conventional deterrence strategies are inadequate for today’s great power competition. According to Haffa, a modern approach to deterring US adversaries should focus on non-nuclear threats, be intense and overwhelming in threat, focus on US and allied strengths and adversary weaknesses, and be able to punish, deny and utilize advanced technologies and weapons systems across the globe. China and Russia have multiple approaches to negate US nuclear and conventional deterrence, running a spectrum between threatening to use nuclear weapons and unconventional means. China’s nuclear stockpile is growing. Image: Asia Times Files / iStock In a September 2022 article for the Heritage Foundation, Patty-Jane Geller says that China’s growing nuclear forces could potentially increase the risk of unintentional escalation. Geller says that if China perceives a favorable nuclear balance of power over the US, it may become more tempted to use nuclear weapons in a conflict. She also says that if the US lacks tactical nuclear capabilities, China may perceive a US response to limited nuclear use in the Indo-Pacific as unreliable. She notes China’s nuclear arsenal expansion, including the acquisition of delivery methods that can threaten the US homeland, could weaken US extended deterrence commitments, making the US less willing to defend its allies. This situation, coupled with the risk of unintentional escalation due to miscalculations or mistakes, increases the potential for a Chinese nuclear strike, Geller argues. In terms of China’s challenging of US conventional deterrence, Andrew Erickson writes in the 2023 book “Modernizing Deterrence: How China Coerces, Compels, and Deters that the conventional missile component of the People’s Liberation Army-Rocket Force (PLA-RF) is increasingly important in China’s deterrence and warfighting, supporting the goal of achieving information dominance, command of the air and control of the sea to thwart a US and allied intervention in Taiwan. Erickson says that PLA-RF doctrine anticipates and seeks to respond effectively to strategic, operational and technical trends. He notes that such trends may include the ability for rapid global precision attacks, placing more stress on mobility, rapid reaction, force survival and protection, and developing penetration aids. In the case of Russia, Lydia Wachs notes in a November 2022 article for Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik that with Russia’s dwindling arsenal of conventional precision weapons and NATO’s strategic adaptation, Russia’s strategy is likely to change, with an increase in reliance on tactical nuclear weapons. Wachs notes that Russia’s perceived conventional inferiority compared to US precision strike capabilities has driven Moscow’s increased reliance on tactical nuclear weapons. She says that the increased role of nuclear weapons in Russia’s deterrence strategy and strengthened posture in areas bordering NATO could weaken European security and stability. Wachs says this could exacerbate Moscow’s threat perception and influence escalation dynamics, impacting the stability of potential crises between NATO and Russia. She adds that if Russia’s reliance on non-strategic nuclear weapons increases, Moscow’s appetite for arms control on short- and medium-range missiles will likely erode further. In terms of conventional deterrence, Tim Sweijs and others write in a January 2022 report for the Hague Institute of Strategic Studies (HCSS) that Russia poses a hybrid threat to NATO and Europe through using proxies, covert activities, cyber capabilities, political subversion and economic influence. In conjunction with that, Ruben Tavenier notes in a February 2018 article for the JASON Institute for Peace and Security Studies that Russia uses a combination of non-military (covert) and military (overt) deterrence to destabilize adversaries, limit potential threats and guarantee victory in a potential conflict. Tavenier mentions that Russia accomplishes those ends by deterring, coercing or containing an adversary by destabilizing it covertly and reducing its military, political and economic capabilities. Given the near-peer challenges facing the US deterrent posture, Doreen Horschig and Nicholas Adamopoulos write in an article this month for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) that the US should consider a Conventional-Nuclear Integration (CNI) strategy that emphasizes greater coherence between conventional and nuclear forces to manage escalation in regional conflicts, develop integrated options to strengthen deterrence and deny adversaries any advantages gained by nuclear use in a regional conflict. A MH-139A Grey Wolf helicopter flies over F E Warren Air Force Base, October 22, 2021. The Grey Wolf will replace the UH-1N Huey, overcoming current limits in speed, range, endurance, payload and survivability, to support Air Force nuclear enterprise modernization. Photo: US Air Force / Airman 1st Class Darius Frazier Horschig and Adamopoulos believe that CNI can improve the resiliency of conventional forces in nuclear war by dispersing operational bases, improving operational capability in potentially contaminated environments, and hardening of command, control and communications (C3) systems. This way, they say, adversaries will be deterred from limited nuclear escalation, thus ensuring that US and allied forces can still achieve their warfighting objectives. Such a strategy, Horschig and Adamopoulos say, can give decision-makers more flexibility and reduce the prospects for a limited nuclear war. However, they also point out that CNI blurs the lines between conventional and nuclear forces, thereby increasing the risk of nuclear escalation.
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Post by Blitz on Oct 26, 2023 9:33:10 GMT -5
Li Shangfu’s dismissal good for US-China dialogue? Defense chief’s mysterious removal may result from a graft probe or a fatal submarine accident By JEFF PAO - OCTOBER 26, 2023 asiatimes.com/2023/10/li-shangfu-s-dismissal-good-for-us-china-dialogue/Defense Minister Li Shangfu gave a speech in Moscow on August 15, 2023. Photo: Baidu China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu was dismissed from his position on Tuesday after he disappeared from public life for two months, reportedly due to corruption probes. The National People’s Congress Standing Committee made the decision without giving a reason. It did not immediately announce Li’s successor but most observers believe that Liu Zhenjiang, chief of staff of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission (CMC), will take charge of the Ministry of National Defense. China has refused to have defense talks with the US since then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022. In May this year, Beijing declined a request from Washington for a meeting between Li and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. It blamed the US for having sanctioned Li over China’s purchases of Russian combat aircraft and arms since 2018. From this point of view, the replacement of Li may help the US and China resume defense dialogues, said some Chinese commentators. It is expected that China’s new defense chief or at least a candidate will give an opening speech at the country’s regional security dialogue, the Beijing Xiangshan Forum, on October 29-31. The US will send a delegation led by Cynthia Xanthi Carras, country director for China in the office of the undersecretary of defense for policy, to attend the forum, according to the China Daily. ore than 90 delegations from countries and international organizations have confirmed their participation, including from Russia, the US, Iran, Singapore, Nigeria, South Korea and Saudi Arabia, said Zhao Yufei, deputy secretary-general of the forum’s organizing committee. They include 22 ministerial-level and 14 military chief-of-staff level officials and 200 military experts from more than 50 countries and regions, he added. On August 15, Li was still China’s representative to attend the 11th Moscow Conference on International Security (MCIS). He met with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu to discuss bilateral military cooperation. Before he disappeared from public view, Li made his last remarks in a keynote speech at the third China-Africa Peace and Security Forum on August 29, calling on both sides to continue to cooperate closely on sensitive issues while rejecting hegemony and bullying actions. On September 16, Reuters reported that Li was under investigation for corruption charges relating to his previous position as head of military procurement. “It’s unlikely that Li Shangfu stepped down only because of corruption problems,” US-based Chinese political commentator Chen Pokong says in his vlog. “As Li had just become China’s state councilor and defense chief in March this year, [Chinese President] Xi Jinping has no reason to take him down.” Chen says it is no surprise that China’s military procurement officials have corruption problems but these should be a strong-enough reason to make top officials like Li step down. He says Li, one of the seven CMC members, might be caught with some bigger issues. Back in December 2015, when Li was the deputy chief of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s procurement department, the department head Li Mingquan was arrested for a corruption investigation. Li Mingquan faced a bribery charge in June 2017 as he was accused of receiving 1.4 million yuan (US$191,463) from a mechanical equipment supplier in 2010-2012. Submarine accident Up Media, a Taiwanese news website, on September 29 suggested that Li was investigated due to a submarine accident that reportedly killed 55 Chinese sailors in the Yellow Sea on August 21. A social media account “lude media” posted on Twitter, now called X, on August 22 that a Type 093 submarine had a serious accident in the Taiwan Strait and lost all its crew on August 21. A few hours later, it clarified that the accident happened in the Yellow Sea. On August 22, Sun Li-fang, a spokesperson of Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, said it could not confirm that report. On August 31, Wu Qian, a spokesperson of China’s Ministry of National Defense, said the report that a submarine accident happened in the Taiwan Strait was false. Citing a classified United Kingdom report based on defense intelligence, the Daily Mail reported on October 3 that 55 people were poisoned to death by an onboard oxygen system after their submarine was stuck by a self-developed trap. The Mirror and The Times also cited the same confidential report. Another X account user @luoxianggy says in a post on October 19 that the crew were poisoned by hydrogen sulfide due to a mistake in pipe connections. He says a sailor survived the accident as he left the vessel to deal with the trap. A report written by the sailor was later obtained by UK intelligence. He says Xi was informed about the accident on his flight to South Africa but the Chinese leader was furious when he knew that netizens were gossiping about it. On August 23, Xi missed his key speech at the BRICS Summit. Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao gave a speech on behalf of him. Beijing has not further commented on the matter since August 31. Taiwan said on September 12 that it could not provide any information as the matter is confidential.
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Post by Blitz on Nov 1, 2023 6:15:42 GMT -5
Xi is 100% responsible for this slowing of China's economy. Xi inherited an economy that was growing at roughly 10%. It was predicted to surpass the biggest economy in the world, the USA's, by 2021/22. But instead, China's economy has gone down, down, down, as Xi's autocratic powers have grown and grown. Xi's shift to Maoism has produced predictable results. Xi's war rhetoric and military build up have contributed to more onshoring over worries of Western economies and security being held hostage by an authoritarian bent on world dominance. My guess is Xi now has many usurpers just waiting to pounce as he continues his purges, threatened his top entrepreneurs, continues to threaten Taiwan and the South China Sea area while supporting NKorea, Iran, and Poo-tin... all with a declining economy. He's got a huge property problem that calls for knocking down whole city blocks of brand new high rises. An upset wealthy class, a middle class in decline, and more unemployment. Yay, Maoism. Yay, Communism. Yay, Xi... thank you for proving it doesn't work. And now this... China’s factory activity unexpectedly contracts in October as demand drops By Laura He, CNN - Published 1:50 AM EDT, Tue October 31, 2023 www.cnn.com/2023/10/31/economy/china-pmi-october-economy-intl-hnk/index.htmlChina’s massive manufacturing sector has contracted once again amid weak demand, fueling calls for stronger policy support to boost growth. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 49.5 in October from 50.2 in September, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday. That missed an estimate of 50.2 from a Reuters poll of analysts. The non-manufacturing PMI, which covers the services and construction industries, fell to 50.6 this month, the lowest level since China lifted its Covid-19 restrictions in December 2022. The PMI is a monthly indicator of economic activity. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while anything below that level shows contraction. Fewer working days in October due to the Golden Week holiday, which spanned September 29 to October 6, affected the manufacturing PMI, according to the NBS. But the contraction also underscores the fragility of the world’s second largest economy. China’s economy is grappling with mounting challenges, ranging from weak consumer spending and a deepening property crisis to subdued global demand. The manufacturing sector, which accounts for 28% of gross domestic product, had contracted for five straight months after March. It finally expanded in September, fueling hopes that the economy had bottomed out. “The unexpected decline of manufacturing PMI shows the recovery in China is a bumpy road as domestic demand is still quite weak,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist for Pinpoint Asset Management. The NBS survey showed that new factory orders declined in October from the previous month, pointing to a drop in demand. The employment sub-index also dropped, indicating that factories had hired fewer workers. The drop in the non-manufacturing PMI, meanwhile, suggests that the pent-up demand for travel and gatherings diminished quickly after the Golden Week holiday, according to Nomura analysts. Overall, “the weak PMI reinforces the case for stronger fiscal policy support,” Zhang said. Beijing has ramped up stimulus measures in recent weeks China’s top parliamentary body approved a 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) sovereign bond issue last week to stimulate the economy. Authorities said the issuance was intended for infrastructure projects in disaster-hit areas of the country. Property easing measures are also being rolled out nationwide. More cities, including Hangzhou and Liuzhou, have loosened restrictions on homebuying in recent weeks. On Monday, President Xi Jinping kicked off a key financial policy meeting in Beijing, the first gathering of its kind in six years, to find ways to spur growth and resolve financial risks, including mounting debt among local governments. “De-risking local governments will require a combination of proactive fiscal and accommodative monetary policies going forward,” Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist for ANZ Research, said in a Tuesday research report. He expects the People’s Bank of China to cut the reserve requirement ratio — the percentage of deposits that commercial banks must keep as reserves — by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter, which could inject 1.2 trillion yuan ($164 billion) into the financial system.
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Post by Blitz on Nov 3, 2023 10:27:16 GMT -5
Yay, Maoism!!! Thank you, Xi for making China weaker... PBOC in a liquidity dilemma of crucial proportions Chinese central bank whipsaws between providing and withdrawing liquidity in 24-hour period as policy balancing act gets dicier and dicier By WILLIAM PESEK - NOVEMBER 1, 2023 asiatimes.com/2023/11/pboc-in-a-liquidity-dilemma-of-crucial-proportions/A Chinese national flag flutters outside the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, the Chinese central bank, in Beijing. Photo: Asia Times Files / Reuters Any staffers at People’s Bank of China headquarters planning a vacation in the last two months of 2023 are almost surely hitting the “cancellation” button. No major monetary authority is likely to be busier than Beijing’s between now and January 1 than the one Pan Gongsheng leads as governor. In the last 24 hours alone, the PBOC made headlines by, first, signaling a fresh liquidity surge to halt a jump in money market rates and then doing the opposite by draining about US$15 billion from money markets. It dramatizes the ways in which the PBOC is caught between Federal Reserve rate hikes in Washington, Bank of Japan dovishness in Tokyo and credit market volatility everywhere else. Add in China’s economic downshift, capital fleeing Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks, and enduring investor concerns about regulatory uncertainty in Beijing and it’s easy to see why holiday plans are likely being canceled at PBOC central.
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Post by Blitz on Nov 8, 2023 11:41:29 GMT -5
China Ready To Improve Ties With US 'At All Levels': VP By AFP - Agence France Presse - November 8, 2023 www.barrons.com/news/china-ready-to-improve-ties-with-us-at-all-levels-vp-1a5ae0c5ADDS foreign ministry comments Beijing is ready to hold talks with the United States at "all levels", China's vice president said Wednesday ahead of an expected summit in San Francisco between leaders Xi Jinping and Joe Biden next week. Speaking at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore, Chinese Vice President Han Zheng said recent high-level meetings between Beijing and Washington were sending "positive signals" that relations were improving. "We're ready to strengthen communication and dialogue with the United States at all levels, advance mutually beneficial cooperation, properly manage differences and jointly address global challenges," Han said. Relations between Washington and Beijing sunk to some of their deepest lows in recent years over a host of issues including export controls, human rights and national security. But both sides appear willing to patch things up, with Washington sending a number of top officials to Beijing this year in a bid to reestablish high-level dialogue. US President Biden has said he expects to meet Chinese leader Xi on the sidelines of a summit in San Francisco next week for "constructive" talks. Asked to confirm whether the summit would go ahead, China's foreign ministry Wednesday reiterated that the two sides had agreed to meet. "At the same time, the road to San Francisco is not smooth, and we cannot be on autopilot," ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin told a regular briefing. "Both sides must... truly implement the consensus reached by the two heads of state, eliminate interference and overcome obstacles, enhance consensus and accumulate results," he said, alluding to a meeting between Xi and Biden in Indonesia last year. And while Beijing is yet to confirm the meeting, Han on Wednesday reiterated Xi's opinion that the question of US-China ties "bears on the future of humanity". "The world is big enough for the two countries to develop themselves and prosper together," he said.
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Post by Blitz on Nov 14, 2023 13:17:09 GMT -5
China Freaked: The Navy Surfaced 3 Missile Submarines Simultaneously As A Warning www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/china-freaked-the-navy-surfaced-3-missile-submarines-simultaneously-as-a-warning/ar-AA1jV8GO?cvid=667fa947efa544f9a589c3712f8e2c3e&ocid=winp2fptaskbarhover&ei=18In the years since 2010, significant global events have unfolded, including the coronavirus pandemic, economic collapse, populist uprisings, and geopolitical shifts. The rise of China as a potential great-power rival has become evident, particularly in the maritime realm, with substantial naval force expansion. The U.S. has responded, but China’s naval capabilities have continued to grow. John Mearscheimer wrote “China is the key to understanding the future distribution of power in Northeast Asia.” Adding, “because of the vast size of China’s population, it has the potential to become much wealthier than Japan, and even wealthier than the United States.” Mearscheimer demonstrates China’s potential with a comparison to Japan. “To illustrate China’s potential, consider the following scenarios. Japan’s per capita GNP is now more than 40 times greater than China’s…If China’s per capita GNP grew to be just half of Japan’s present per capita GNP, China would have a GNP of $20.04 trillion, which would make China almost five times as wealthy as Japan” wrote Meascheimer. U.S. Ohio-class submarine USS Kentucky (SSBN-737) was sent to South Korea to put an end to a nearly 40-year-gap between visits. Chinese and North Korean officials are undoubtedly sweating, as the submarine arrived in response to North Korea’s testing of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The visit was not initially revealed. North Korea denounced discussions about nuclear weapons and criticized military exercises involving the US, South Korea, and Japan. The USS Kentucky is an Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine, part of the US nuclear deterrent. Three Ohio-class submarines surfaced simultaneously in the Indo-Pacific as a warning. Some Ohio-class submarines were converted to carry non-nuclear munitions. China “freaked” at the sight of them. With North Korea growing increasingly hostile, it’s likely it won’t be another 13 years before other submarines arrive in their backyard. The text emphasizes the importance of understanding China’s potential and ambition, particularly in comparison to the United States. Mearscheimer wrote, “Another way of illustrating how powerful China might become if its economy continues growing rapidly is to compare it with the United States.” “The GNP of the United States is $7.9 trillion (in 2001) … If China’s per capita GNP equals Korea’s, China’s overall GNP would be almost $10.66 trillion, which is about 1.35 times the size of America’s GNP”, warned the researcher.
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Post by Blitz on Nov 15, 2023 6:58:24 GMT -5
Xi has discovered he needs the USA as he arrives more hat-in-hand than conquering hero of the hoi polloi. His return to Maoism has been a predictable big fail as evidenced by continual slowing GDP growth almost his entire time on the communist throne. And now this... Sen. Rick Scott: Biden Can’t Repeat Schumer’s Failure to Pressure Xi November 12, 2023 www.rickscott.senate.gov/2023/11/sen-rick-scott-biden-can-t-repeat-schumer-s-failure-to-pressure-xiWASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, ahead of President Joe Biden’s meeting this week with Xi Jinping, the genocidal dictator of Communist China, Senator Rick Scott released the below statement detailing his expectations for this meeting. Earlier this year, Senator Scott set the same expectations ahead of Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s visit to Communist China, where he utterly failed to hold Xi’s oppressive, communist government accountable. Since being elected to the U.S. Senate, Senator Scott has introduced dozens of bills to punish Communist China for its increased military aggression, continued cyberattacks on both private companies and U.S. government agencies, unfair trade practices and stealing of data and intellectual property from American citizens and businesses. Notably, Senator Scott has been the most outspoken member of the U.S. Congress on Communist China’s disgusting human rights abuses. Senator Scott led the movement calling for the International Olympic Committee to pull the 2022 Winter Olympics from Communist China due to its mass imprisonment and genocide of Uyghur Muslims. Today, an estimated 1 MILLION Uyghurs are imprisoned by Communist China’s brutal regime and subjected to slave labor, involuntary organ harvesting, sterilization and torture that often results in death. Senator Rick Scott said, “After months of Biden official after Biden official journeying to Communist China on American taxpayers’ dime to kiss Xi’s ring and play nice with America’s enemy, it’s now President Biden’s turn to embarrass the U.S. here at home. Joe Biden’s weakness on Communist China is inexcusable. He has refused to hold the murderous and genocidal communist Chinese government accountable for its cover-up of COVID-19. He’s done nothing to punish Xi for his genocide of millions of Uyghur Muslims and the forced labor and child slavery he subject them to. It has been one act of disgusting appeasement after the other. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Xi gave Biden an award for all he’s done to help Communist China. He signed the Democrat-led, pro-Communist China ‘CHIPS Bill’ which allowed semiconductor manufacturers like Intel to maintain MASSIVE operations in Communist China. Worse still, Biden VETOED my bill to reverse his rule that allowed Chinese solar companies, many of which are using child and slave labor, to circumvent U.S. trade laws. Communist China has chosen to be America’s enemy and NOTHING Joe Biden says is going to change that. But, since he is rolling out the red carpet for Xi in California after Schumer’s failed visit, here are the things he must demand answers on if he wants to actually stand up for America’s interests: - Communist China’s role in the deadly fentanyl crisis that has taken more than 70,000 American lives over the last year; - Xi’s disgusting cover-up of the COVID pandemic and the lab leak that caused devastation to the U.S. economy and the loss of millions of American lives; - The massive and continuous IP theft, corporate espionage, and flow of counterfeit and illicit goods supported by Xi’s regime that have caused immeasurable damage to U.S. businesses; - Communist China’s efforts to undermine the security of the United States by luring our neighbors using the Belt and Road Initiative to deny the U.S. access to resources, technology and strategic regions in the Western Hemisphere; - The harm caused by Communist China’s international treaty violations, trade manipulation and illegal dumping, use of slave labor in solar panel production and attacks on the sovereignty of Taiwan and the Philippines with military operations in the Taiwan Strait and West Philippine Sea; - Communist China’s blatant espionage and spy operations conducted through its spy balloon, spy base in Cuba and illegal police substations in American cities, including New York City; - The horrific human rights abuses being committed by Xi’s evil and murderous regime, including the imprisonment of 1 MILLION Uyghurs who are subjected to slave labor, involuntary organ harvesting, sterilization and torture that often results in death; and - Hold the Communist Party of China accountable for their despicable destruction of Hong Kong's freedom, autonomy and rule of law—specifically the sham conviction of pro-democracy activist Jimmy Lai.”
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Post by Blitz on Nov 16, 2023 10:31:17 GMT -5
I doubt Xi was happy about meeting with Biden because he needs to. I'd bet he was even under significant pressure by the Central Committee to get it done or there was probably a purge coming at the top of the CCP. And now this... Biden meets Xi Jinping in San Francisco: US and Chinese leaders shake hands at Filoli luxury estate for crunch talks on Taiwan, fentanyl and climate change to try and repair spiraling tensions Leaders of two superpowers met for the first time in a year amid rising tensions US-Chinese relations have been seriously strained since the spy balloon saga www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12754091/biden-xi-jinping-san-francisco-fioli-meeting.htmlXi tells 'old friend' Biden: Earth big enough for BOTH...
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